Shopify (SHOP.TO) heads into July with buyback in focus after holiday week spike
27 July 2026
1 min read

Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) surges 10% as payments composition focuses earnings challenge

NEW YORK, July 27, 2026, 14:02 EDT

  • Shares gained 10.2% to reach $125.40 in early afternoon trade.
  • Shares of Wix.com Ltd. rose 10.8%, as software stocks climbed 2.8%.
  • Roughly 84% of the growth in first-quarter merchant-solutions revenue at Shopify came from payments.

Shares of Shopify climbed 10.2% to reach $125.40 as of 1:47 p.m. EDT Monday, trading close to their session peak while U.S. markets stayed open.

The advance exceeded the overall market performance. The S&P 500 finished largely unchanged, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.2%.

Shopify’s most recent update to investors is still its July 8 earnings announcement. This draws focus away from new developments, putting the spotlight on sector rotation and positioning ahead of results.

The August 5 update will highlight a subtler concern: the quality of payments. In the March quarter, Shopify Payments volume increased at a quicker rate than overall merchandise volume.

First-quarter metric20262025Change
Gross merchandise value$100.74 billion$74.75 billion+34.8%
Volume through Shopify Payments$67.1 billion$47.5 billion+41.3%
Payments adoption rate67%64%+3 percentage points
Revenue from merchant solutions$2.42 billion$1.74 billion+39.1%
Gross profit margin48.8%49.5%-0.8 percentage point
Losses from transactions and loans$116 million$75 million+54.7%

Reported figures form the basis for growth rates and margins, which are rounded.

Payments revenue rose by $572 million, accounting for approximately 84% of the growth in merchant-solutions revenue, according to company filings.

The increase was not without expense. Merchant solutions accounted for 76% of revenue, compared to 74% previously.

Gross profit rose by 32%, lagging behind the pace of overall revenue growth. Transaction and loan losses surged 55% to reach $116 million.

This represents the main trade-off for investors. Increased payments activity drives up sales, while the composition results in lower margins and greater credit risk.

Shopify anticipates its second-quarter revenue will rise in the high twenties percentage range, while it projects gross profit to grow in the mid-twenties range.

Operating expenses are expected to account for 35% to 36% of revenue. The free-cash-flow margin is projected to stay in the mid-teens.

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein pointed to the company’s “strong, durable growth and two decades of commerce intelligence.” The company’s scale is now seen as essential by investors to safeguard unit economics. Shopify

The surge was echoed elsewhere. Wix climbed 10.8%, adding weight to the argument that investors were broadly buying software stocks.

On August 5, three key metrics will be in focus: payments penetration, gross margin, and transaction losses. Accelerated expansion in payments, if achieved without further pressure on margins, would bolster the investment outlook.

Risks: A deceleration in merchant spending, an increase in credit losses, or shrinking margins may offset Monday’s rise. In addition, elevated interest rates or fresh geopolitical tensions could weigh on software valuations.

Monday’s surge changed expectations. The following direction hinges on whether rising payments can translate into sustained profit.

What is driving the increase in Shopify’s share price today?

At 1:49 p.m. ET on July 27, 2026, Shopify was up 10.33% at $125.50. QQQ slipped 0.86% and SPY edged down 0.28% around the same time. Shopify’s session moved between $114.43 and $126.02 as trading volume exceeded six million shares. Market commentary cited AI optimism and upcoming August earnings positioning as reasons for the gains. This was market assessment, rather than news from the company. Benzinga

What is the next officially scheduled catalyst?

Shopify is set to release its second-quarter earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. The company’s conference call is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET the same day. Shopify Options markets are pricing in a 14.44% move by the August 7 options expiry, though this reflects volatility expectations rather than a view on share direction. Optionslam Shopify’s last report in May saw shares drop 15.6% the following session; the prior August report led to a 22.0% next-day gain. Optionslam

Which figures does Shopify need to surpass in the second quarter?

Shopify projected revenue growth in the high twenties percentage range from last year’s $2.68 billion. That range, interpreted as 27%–29%, implies revenue between $3.40 billion and $3.46 billion. SEC The current average S&P consensus across 40 analysts is around $3.442 billion. Moomoo MarketWatch lists average EPS at $0.40, with Benzinga reporting $0.37. MarketWatch Shopify has not issued an adjusted EPS forecast. The company is also predicting gross-profit growth in the mid-twenties percentages and free-cash-flow margins in the mid-teens. SEC

Has revenue growth decelerated following the first quarter?

Revenue for the first quarter jumped 34% to $3.17 billion from $2.36 billion. GMV increased 35% to $100.74 billion, compared with $74.75 billion. Revenue from merchant solutions rose 39%, while subscription solutions gained 21%. SEC The outlook for the second quarter projects revenue growth in the high twenties, signaling a clear deceleration from the first quarter’s rate. Nonetheless, a high-twenties percentage remains near 30% year on year. SEC

Do margins remain stable as AI expenditure rises?

Gross profit for the first quarter was $1.546 billion, representing around 49% of total revenue, versus about 50% in the same quarter last year. Free cash flow hit $476 million, keeping the margin at 15%. SEC Cloud and infrastructure expenses increased by $22 million, with AI-related usage included. Computer hardware and software expenses were up by $25 million, also factoring in AI spending. SEC The forecast for the second quarter continues to call for a free-cash-flow margin in the mid-teens. Investors seek confirmation that the additional costs are staying in check. SEC

Is artificial intelligence providing benefits to Shopify, or does it pose a risk to its platform?

Shopify saw AI-related store traffic surge eightfold in the first quarter, while orders placed via AI-enabled search climbed almost thirteenfold compared to a year ago. Reuters Shopify’s new offerings include Agentic Storefronts, Sidekick, and the ability to sell through AI-driven chats. Shopify But analysts remain divided over how much AI bolsters Shopify’s market position. Redburn targeted shares at $130, basing its view on an estimated 50% U.S. volume exposure to potential Meta small-business AI offerings. Morgan Stanley’s price target stands at $192, while consensus is near $149. Barron’s The 50% exposure is an individual analyst’s projection, not a confirmed figure.

What level of backing could the $5 billion buyback offer?

In June, Shopify increased its share buyback authorization by $3 billion, bringing the total to $5 billion. As of June 1, Shopify had repurchased approximately $1.45 billion worth of shares, leaving around $3.55 billion for future repurchases. Reuters The amount remaining as of June 1 represents about 2.2% of the company’s market capitalization. As of March 31, Shopify reported holding $5.743 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. SEC The buyback program may ease some selling pressure, but it will not be enough to counteract significantly negative earnings results.

Does Shopify look overvalued following today’s surge?

Shopify is priced at $125.50, trading at approximately 123 times its reported trailing earnings. These earnings are volatile, as equity-investment marks can fluctuate widely by quarter. SEC Adjusting the trailing revenue to swap the first quarter of 2025 with the first quarter of 2026 brings the total to about $12.37 billion. Shopify’s market capitalisation of $163.6 billion represents roughly 13.2 times that revenue. SEC Shares remain about 31% under the 52-week peak of $182.19. MarketWatch The current consensus among 34 analysts targets $149.05, implying a possible 19% increase. Benzinga That valuation leaves little margin for lacklustre quarterly performance.

Leokadia Głogulska is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, space technology and global market developments. She graduated from Wrocław University of Economics and Business and previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. Her reporting focuses on helping readers understand the market trends, companies and technologies shaping the global economy.

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