Silver price today is holding close to historic highs, extending a year of unusually strong momentum for the “white metal” as investors weigh a cooler U.S. inflation read against a rebounding U.S. dollar.
In early trade on Friday, December 19, spot silver was trading around $65.8–$65.9 per ounce, up modestly on the day, with the session range still brushing near the week’s peak levels. [1]
Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands right now
Silver’s latest move is small in percentage terms, but big in context:
- Spot silver: around $65.81 bid / $65.93 ask in early updates, up about 0.6% on the day, with a day’s range roughly $64.48–$66.07. [2]
- Another widely followed market feed put spot silver near $65.93, up about 0.8%. [3]
- Retail dealer indicators also showed spot near $66.09 early Friday (prices vary by venue and timestamp). [4]
The bigger headline: silver is on track for a ~6% weekly gain after printing a record high around $66.88 earlier this week, according to market reports. [5]
And 2025 has been exceptional: silver is up roughly 128% year-to-date, dramatically outperforming gold. [6]
What’s driving silver on December 19: inflation cools, but the dollar firms
Friday’s trading backdrop is a classic push-pull for precious metals:
1) Softer U.S. inflation supports rate-cut expectations
A lower-than-expected U.S. inflation print reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates again, which tends to support non-yielding assets like precious metals. [7]
2) A firmer dollar can cap upside
At the same time, the U.S. dollar firmed near short-term highs, which can make dollar-priced commodities more expensive for non-U.S. buyers and, in turn, cool demand at the margin. [8]
This tension helps explain why silver can be “up on the day” while still struggling to extend decisively above record territory: traders are simultaneously pricing in easier policy and a currency headwind.
The bigger story behind silver’s 2025 surge: more than a gold coattail ride
Silver is often described as “gold with a turbocharger”—it can rally harder, and sell off faster. What’s made 2025 different is that silver’s strength has been fed by a combination of macro drivers and market-structure catalysts.
A “perfect storm” of demand, deficits, and positioning
A Reuters analysis this week highlighted three dominant supports:
- Investment demand and momentum buying (with several analysts describing the rally as heavily investment-driven)
- Supply deficits and tight inventories
- Industrial demand tied to AI data centers, solar, and EVs, alongside safe-haven flows tied to geopolitical and trade tensions [9]
In that same report, analysts pointed to how silver’s rally has been amplified by trading behavior and global participation—particularly when rising prices attract incremental speculative flows. [10]
“Critical minerals” status adds a structural bid
Another recurring theme across 2025 coverage: silver’s inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list has become a market narrative that goes beyond symbolism. Officials’ critical-minerals framework explicitly includes silver in the 2025 list, a change that market participants have linked with reshaped trade expectations and hedging against future policy/tariff risks. [11]
Reuters reporting has also connected tariff concerns to earlier flows of metal toward the U.S. and tighter liquidity dynamics in the London market at points during the year. [12]
Silver price forecast: where analysts see silver heading next
With silver near record highs, forecasts now span a wide range—from “still room to run” to “late-stage melt-up risk.”
Bullish targets: $70 in sight—and even $75 discussed
Several analysts cited in recent market reporting have framed $70/oz as a psychologically important next milestone:
- A Reuters market report quoted a Marex analyst saying “$70/oz looks to be the next logical target in the short-term.” [13]
- In a separate Reuters analysis, WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah said silver prices could get close to $75/oz by the end of next year, citing supportive conditions tied to inventories and broader fundamentals. [14]
A more cautious call: some bank projections sit below today’s spot price
Notably, not all institutional forecasts keep pace with the current market:
A market summary of BMO’s outlook described a scenario where BMO expects silver to peak around $60/oz in Q4 2026, with a 2026 average forecast near $56.30/oz—levels that are below today’s spot price. The same outlook also flagged overbought conditions and the possibility that supply deficits could narrow. [15]
This gap between spot and some forward averages matters: it signals that even bullish institutions may be modeling mean-reversion after a period of extraordinary upside volatility.
Silver technical analysis today: key levels traders are watching
With silver consolidating near the highs, technical analysts are increasingly focused on whether price action is pausing for a “healthy reset” or preparing for a breakout.
Near-term support and resistance (XAG/USD)
Two widely followed technical takes published today point to similar zones:
- Support: around $65.00, with deeper support zones in the mid-$64s (often cited near ~$64.5). [16]
- Resistance: around $66.90, with the record-high region acting as the immediate ceiling. [17]
- If silver breaks higher: one short-term projection highlighted a path toward ~$68.70 on a clean upside break. [18]
One Investing.com technical note also emphasized that, after a sharp climb, silver may not move “in a straight line”—calling out stepwise upside objectives near the mid-$66s and upper-$66s while warning that pullbacks can be part of normal consolidation. [19]
The risk case: silver’s rally is powerful—but “overbought” warnings are getting louder
Silver’s reputation for violent reversals is part of why it can outperform so dramatically on the way up. That same trait is why risk warnings tend to intensify near record highs.
A Barron’s report highlighted that silver-linked ETFs are showing extreme “stretch” versus key moving averages—conditions that research cited by the outlet suggested have historically preceded sharp pullbacks (including prior episodes where silver dropped more than 20% after similarly extended moves). [20]
Reuters has also repeatedly underscored silver’s volatility and the potential for steep corrections, even while acknowledging that supportive fundamentals (deficits, industrial demand, and investment flows) remain in play. [21]
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move silver into year-end
With silver already pricing in a lot of optimism, traders are increasingly focused on catalysts that can justify either a breakout or a reset:
- The U.S. dollar and real yields: if the dollar extends its rebound, it may pressure commodities broadly; if it weakens again, silver can catch a tailwind. [22]
- Fed-cut expectations: markets are sensitive to any data that shifts the probability and timing of further easing. [23]
- Physical market tightness and inventory signals: any signs of renewed liquidity stress (especially outside the U.S.) can quickly spill into pricing. [24]
- Positioning updates: watchers will continue tracking speculative positioning for evidence the market is becoming crowded at high prices. [25]
Bottom line: silver price today is steady near records—momentum is intact, but so is correction risk
Silver price today remains firm near $66/oz, supported by a powerful 2025 trend and continued attention to supply tightness, industrial demand narratives, and shifting rate expectations. [26]
But with overbought warnings rising and forecasts split between “$70–$75 next” and “cooling toward ~$60 later”, the next decisive move will likely depend on whether macro conditions (the dollar, yields, and Fed expectations) turn into a tailwind—or a brake—during the final stretch of the year. [27]
References
1. www.kitco.com, 2. www.kitco.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.jmbullion.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.federalregister.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. news.futunn.com, 16. www.fxempire.com, 17. www.fxempire.com, 18. www.fxempire.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.kitco.com, 27. www.reuters.com
