London, March 22, 2026, 17:28 GMT
Spot silver starts the week on the back foot, last seen at $69.39 an ounce Friday as a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields outweighed any safe-haven demand from Middle East unrest. That marks a steep drop from $81.00 back on March 13.
Here’s why it matters right now: the same big-picture jolt that dragged silver down hasn’t gone away. Over the weekend, Reuters said Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. targets its energy infrastructure. Brent closed out Friday at $112.19 a barrel; analysts flagged the risk of another oil price jump when markets open Monday. IG’s Tony Sycamore didn’t mince words, calling the situation a “ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty.” Reuters
Silver faces a twofold challenge here. It’s not just a precious metal like gold—it’s wrapped up in industry, feeding into electronics, electric vehicles, and solar panels. That makes next week’s flash PMI surveys—early reads on factory and services action—far more important for silver than for assets trading on pure safe-haven appeal. Reuters points out that the March numbers, landing Tuesday, offer the first test of whether the energy shock is dragging down business activity. Per S&P Global’s calendar, data hits markets in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. between March 23 and 24.
Rates are still the main headwind. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged last week and signaled expectations for tougher inflation; in a quick shift, traders went from betting on roughly half a point of Fed cuts just weeks back to bracing for a possible uptick in rates this year, according to Reuters. That shift is key for silver, which offers no yield—higher bond returns make holding bullion more expensive.
Bonds and currencies wrapped the week pointing in a single direction. According to Reuters, the U.S. 10-year yield ticked up to 4.384% Friday; the two-year hit 3.894%. The dollar index hovered around 99.58. Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA, noted central banks struck a firmer tone on inflation than markets anticipated, showing “no interest in cutting rates.” Reuters
Similar moves echoed across the precious-metals board. Gold finished Friday down at $4,563.64, while platinum lost ground to $1,953.18 and palladium edged lower to $1,423.59. Traders are reading the conflict primarily as an oil and inflation story, not a classic flight to safety. “Especially wobbly” is how independent metals trader Tai Wong described the metals after a week rattled by rate worries. Reuters
Still, the rebound argument unravels fast if silver’s growth outlook sours. Softer PMIs plus another oil spike? That’s a double punch: sliding industrial demand, stickier rates. Back in February, Reuters noted solar manufacturers were already ramping up copper use to rein in expenses—photovoltaics make up 17% of silver demand, but the shift is on.
Still, there’s a counterweight: back in February, the Silver Institute projected a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit by 2026—meaning demand will again outpace supply. The group pointed to retail investment as the cushion against weaker industrial demand. Looking at this week, traders have their eyes on Monday’s oil open, Tuesday’s PMI releases, Japan’s inflation numbers, and any fresh shifts in rate expectations. Tai Wong expects silver to settle down soon, though he flagged the potential for “a bumpy ride.” Reuters
