Washington, June 10, 2026, 19:01 EDT
- Social Security’s retirement and survivor trust fund is now forecast to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032. At that point, incoming revenue would cover about 78% of promised benefits.
- The combined retirement, survivor and disability trust funds are projected to last until 2034, the same as last year’s outlook, at which point they would cover just 83% of promised benefits.
- Trustees pointed to lower birth-rate assumptions, less immigration, and smaller tax revenue from Social Security benefits after the 2025 tax law.
Social Security’s main retirement fund is on track to run out of money by late 2032, according to U.S. trustees. Unless lawmakers make changes, the reserve supporting monthly payments for retirees and survivors will be depleted. Payroll taxes would still cover about 78% of promised benefits, which means a 22% drop in checks under current law.
Social Security’s warning is gaining traction as the window narrows to about six years. The agency said it paid out $1.60 trillion in benefits in 2025 to 70 million people, with combined reserves dropping $160 billion to $2.56 trillion.
It’s another flashpoint in Washington, where putting things off can get expensive. Fiscal groups warn that if Congress waits much longer, lawmakers will have less room to ease in changes—and may have to choose between sharp benefit cuts or tax hikes.
OASI, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund that covers retirement and survivor benefits, is now forecast to run out of reserves a quarter earlier than last year’s outlook. The disability trust fund keeps its projection to pay full benefits at least through 2100.
Trustees flagged three big drivers pulling down the long-term outlook: expectations for a lower fertility rate, softer net immigration, plus the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed on July 4, 2025. That measure cut future income tax revenue tied to Social Security benefits by making tax cuts last longer and giving a temporary extra deduction to taxpayers older than 65.
Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano said the administration is sticking with its goal of “protecting and strengthening Social Security” and called for lawmakers and the agency to cooperate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the reports “reinforce the need for lawmakers to take action.” Social Security
The way people talk about the trust fund can muddle things. If the fund hits depletion, checks don’t just end. Instead, benefits keep going, but only using current revenue—mostly the 12.4% payroll tax on wages up to $184,500 in 2026.
Social Security’s retirement fund isn’t the only one feeling pressure. Look at both the retirement and disability funds together, and the combined trust would hit shortfall in Q3 of 2034. Medicare’s hospital insurance fund is seen running short sooner, in Q2 of 2033, at which point it could cover just 89% of scheduled benefits.
AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan called the report “a wake-up call,” adding no family should lose benefits they’ve earned. AARP said Social Security supports over 71 million people and is the main income for 43% of seniors. AARP
Social Security’s 75-year funding gap has grown to 4.42% of taxable payroll, up 16% from what was projected last year, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said. CRFB president Maya MacGuineas called it “sleepwalking into a retirement crisis.” CRFB
Policy fights over Social Security run through the same list: raise revenue, cut future benefits, push back retirement, adjust cost-of-living rules, or tax more of the highest incomes. Roosevelt Institute CEO Elizabeth Wilkins said, “too much income now flows to the top,” and that means less is subject to Social Security tax. CBS News
The date remains just a projection. Trustees said they set the main assumptions back in February, and those will get a refresh in future reports. Stronger wage growth, immigration, fertility, or new claim trends and laws could all shift the numbers. Slower growth or no action could make a fix even tougher.
Social Security’s last big overhaul happened back in 1983, when Congress changed payroll taxes and set a slow increase in the retirement age from 65 up to 67. That extended the program’s timeline. But now, the latest report says there’s not much time left.
