SoFi Stock Drops After $1.5 Billion Share Offering: Latest SOFI News, Analyst Forecasts and 2025

Shares of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) fell sharply on Friday, 5 December 2025, after the fast‑growing fintech announced a large public offering of common stock. The move rattled investors who have watched the stock more than double this year, even as SoFi continues to post record revenue and profits. ^[1]

This article breaks down what happened today, how the new share sale changes the story, what Wall Street expects next, and how various models value SoFi stock through 2030.

SoFi stock today: sharp pullback after a huge 2025 rally

By early afternoon on Friday, SoFi shares were trading around $27–28, down roughly 7–8% from Thursday’s close near $29.60. ^[2]

MarketBeat reports that the stock gapped down at the open, sliding from a prior close of $29.60 to an opening print around $27.37, with intraday trading near $27.7 on heavy volume of more than 34 million shares. ^[3]

The drop follows a spectacular run:

CoinCentral notes that SoFi shares had climbed about 92% year‑to‑date before the latest news and more than sixfold since the end of 2022. ^[4]
24/7 Wall St. calculates that the stock is up ~120% over the past six months and about 81% over the last year. ^[5]
Meyka’s AI‑driven digest similarly highlights a roughly 116% year‑over‑year gain. ^[6]

In other words: today’s sell‑off hurts, but it’s coming off a very elevated base.

Inside SoFi’s $1.5 billion stock offering

The catalyst for Friday’s move is SoFi’s decision to issue new shares.

According to a GuruFocus report syndicated on TradingView, SoFi priced a public offering of 54.5 million shares at $27.50, aiming to raise roughly $1.5 billion in gross proceeds. Underwriters also have a 30‑day option to buy an additional 8.2 million shares. ^[7]

CoinCentral’s coverage adds several key details: ^[8]

The offering was announced Thursday after the close, and shares fell about 6% in after‑hours trading.
The stock had gained over 92% in 2025 heading into the deal.
SoFi plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including strengthening its capital position, funding growth opportunities and improving capital management efficiency.
As of 30 September 2025, SoFi already held $3.25 billion in cash and equivalents, giving it a sizable liquidity cushion even before the raise.

From an investor perspective, the main concern is dilution: issuing tens of millions of new shares reduces existing shareholders’ ownership percentage and can pressure earnings per share in the near term. The market reaction so far reflects that tension between bolstering capital and spreading profits over a larger share count.

Meyka’s “SoFi News Today” note captures the mood bluntly: the $1.5 billion stock sale “hit investor sentiment” and pushed the stock down nearly 6%, even as the underlying business continues to grow quickly. ^[9]

SoFi’s fundamentals: record Q3 2025 results and raised guidance

The share sale lands against a backdrop of very strong operating performance.

In its Q3 2025 earnings release, SoFi reported: ^[10]

GAAP net revenue: $961.6 million, up 38% year‑over‑year
Adjusted net revenue: ~$950 million, up 38%
Net income: $139.4 million, more than doubling versus the prior year
Adjusted EBITDA: $277 million, up 49%
Fee‑based revenue: $409 million, up 50%, reflecting the push into less capital‑intensive businesses
Members: 12.6 million, up 35% year‑on‑year
Total products: 18.6 million, up 36%

The Q3 investor presentation highlights that SoFi has now delivered eight consecutive profitable quarters, with adjusted net revenue and fee‑based revenue both compounding at high double‑digit rates over the last several years. Fee‑based revenue is now running at roughly $1.6 billion annualized, while total adjusted net revenue is pacing around $2.1 billion annualized. ^[11]

Management also raised full‑year 2025 guidance, projecting: ^[12]

Adjusted net revenue of roughly $3.5–3.6 billion (about 35–37% growth vs. 2024)
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) around $0.37 for 2025

The company emphasizes a strong “Rule of 40” profile—combining high revenue growth with rising profitability—and notes an average Rule‑of‑40 score of about 58% over the last four years, placing SoFi in what it calls “rarified air” among financial and technology peers. ^[13]

In short, the business is scaling quickly, shifting more toward capital‑light, fee‑based revenue, and steadily expanding margins.

Strategy update: AI, crypto, and the “one‑stop” financial app

24/7 Wall St. notes that SoFi’s CEO has publicly targeted 30% annual member growth and 20% revenue growth, underlining management’s long‑term ambition. ^[14]

The same piece and recent company disclosures highlight several strategic initiatives: ^[15]

One‑stop financial platform: SoFi continues to position itself as a full‑stack financial app, spanning lending, banking, investing, insurance and financial planning.
Bank charter & deposit growth: Its national bank charter allows it to fund loans with a growing, low‑cost deposit base rather than expensive wholesale funding.
Product expansion: SoFi has rolled out new offerings such as Level 1 options trading, a new actively managed AI‑focused ETF, and SoFi Pay / blockchain‑based cross‑border money transfer partnerships (e.g., with Lightspark) to explore crypto and blockchain use cases.
Technology platforms: The Galileo and Technisys infrastructure businesses continue to power third‑party financial services, adding a B2B layer on top of SoFi’s consumer franchise.

These initiatives help explain why investors have been willing to pay up for SoFi’s growth story—and why the company may see today’s elevated share price as an opportune time to raise capital.

Analyst ratings: consensus “Hold” despite the rally

Despite the strong growth, Wall Street is not unanimously bullish.

MarketBeat’s aggregated data shows: ^[16]

Consensus rating: Hold
Analyst count: 23 ratings in the past 12 months
Breakdown: 3 Sell, 12 Hold, 7 Buy, 1 Strong Buy
Average 12‑month price target: about $24.9, implying modest downside from current levels
Recent actions include:
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: target raised from $18 to $20, rating Underperform
- Goldman Sachs: target lifted from $24 to $27, rating Neutral
- Citigroup: target boosted from $28 to $37, rating Buy
- Jefferies: Buy rating with a $35 target

TipRanks, which tracks 16 analysts over the last three months, also shows a “Hold” consensus: ^[17]

4 Buy, 8 Hold, 4 Sell
Average price target:$26.96, about 7% below a recent last price of $29.07

StockAnalysis.com similarly reports an overall Hold consensus and an average target in the mid‑$20s, with analyst forecasts implying revenue of about $3.62 billion in 2025 and $4.61 billion in 2026, representing roughly 37% and 27% growth, respectively. EPS is expected to be around $0.37 in 2025 and $0.61 in 2026, implying a forward P/E in the mid‑40s. ^[18]

Taken together, the message from mainstream analysts is clear: great growth story, but not obviously cheap at today’s price.

Valuation check: Has SoFi’s 2025 rally gone too far?

Valuation is where opinions really start to diverge.

A fresh note from Simply Wall St on 5 December asks bluntly whether SoFi’s rally has “run too far.” The site’s models currently give SoFi 0/6 on their valuation checks, and their “Excess Returns” framework estimates an intrinsic value more than 200% below the current share price, leading to an “Overvalued” verdict. ^[19]

Key points from that analysis:

The model uses book value of $7.29 per share and a “stable” EPS of $0.70, based on aggregated ROE forecasts.
It compares this to the cost of equity and finds only modest “excess” profit over what investors demand, which, when discounted, produces a value far below the market price.
By traditional metrics, SoFi trades at a P/E of about 55.8x, compared with roughly 10x for the broader consumer finance industry and about 42x for its peer group.
Simply Wall St’s own “Fair Ratio” framework suggests a more normal P/E around 26x, less than half the current multiple, again supporting the view that the stock looks stretched.

That said, the same article illustrates how different narrative assumptions produce very different fair value estimates:

A more conservative scenario—with moderate ~15% revenue growth and mid‑single‑digit margins—yields a fair value around $14 per share.
A more optimistic scenario—nearly 19% growth and around 20% margins—pushes fair value up toward $26–27 per share. ^[20]

In other words, if SoFi keeps compounding at the pace management is targeting and maintains strong returns on equity, some of today’s premium could be justified. If growth or profitability disappoint, there is meaningful multiple‑compression risk.

Short‑term technicals vs. long‑term price forecasts

Technical view: high‑risk “buy candidate”

Before today’s gap down, technical site StockInvest.us flagged SoFi as a “buy candidate” following the 4 December session: ^[21]

The stock closed at $29.60, up 1.82% on the day, with rising volume considered a positive sign.
Their model described SoFi as being in a “very wide and weak rising trend” in the short term, projecting about 6.9% upside over the next three months.
With 90% probability, they expected the stock to trade in a range of $26.94–$34.96 by the end of that period.

Those forecasts were based on prices before the new offering and Friday’s sell‑off, so the technical picture will likely be updated in the days ahead. Still, it underscores an important point: SoFi is a volatile, high‑beta stock, and short‑term moves can be sharp in both directions.

2025–2030 fundamental forecast: 24/7 Wall St’s model

For a longer‑term view, 24/7 Wall St. published a detailed price prediction through 2030 on 5 December. Their base case: ^[22]

They see SoFi as a “premier online financial solutions platform” targeting more affluent customers, with a bank charter, growing deposit base, and a broadening product ecosystem.
Using a price‑to‑sales multiple of 3.5x, benchmarked against other fintech lenders (Block, PayPal, Upstart, LendingClub, Affirm), they model steady revenue and earnings growth through 2030.

Their internal estimates:

Revenue rising from about $2.84 billion in 2025 to $5.34 billion in 2030
Net income climbing from roughly $0.32 billion to $1.28 billion over the same period
EPS increasing to around $1.10 by 2030

On that foundation, 24/7 Wall St. sets the following year‑end price targets: ^[23]

2025: $29.41 (roughly flat vs. today)
2026: $35.70 (~21% above current)
2027: $39.26 (~33% above current)
2028: $44.85 (~52% above current)
2029: $50.12 (~69% above current)
2030: $55.30 (~87% above current)

They characterize Wall Street’s stance as “cautious optimism”—acknowledging that some analysts see SoFi as richly valued, while others believe the company could compound for decades.

S&P 500 inclusion chatter adds another twist

One intriguing subplot: CoinCentral notes that a KBW analyst recently placed SoFi on a shortlist of companies that could be added to the S&P 500 during the index’s upcoming quarterly rebalancing. ^[24]

There’s no guarantee the S&P committee will select SoFi, but inclusion would be a milestone. It would force index funds tracking the S&P 500 to buy shares, potentially supporting demand—but the new share offering also increases the float, which can be a prerequisite for index eligibility.

Investors should treat S&P 500 speculation as a potential tailwind, not a base‑case assumption.

Bull vs. bear case: what investors are debating now

The bull case for SoFi stock

Supporters of the stock tend to emphasize:

Rapid growth with improving profitability
- High‑30s revenue growth and rising EBITDA margins, with eight straight profitable quarters. ^[25]
Structural advantages from the bank charter
- Access to low‑cost deposits that fund its lending businesses and support net interest income growth. ^[26]
Powerful cross‑sell engine
- A growing member base using more products per customer, boosting lifetime value and making the platform stickier. ^[27]
Diversified revenue mix
- Fee‑based businesses (Galileo, Technisys, investing, interchange) growing faster than core lending, which reduces capital intensity over time. ^[28]
Optionality from AI, crypto and new products
- New AI‑themed ETFs, options trading, and blockchain‑powered transfers could open additional revenue streams. ^[29]
Long runway
- 24/7 Wall St.’s model, for example, sees nearly 87% upside by 2030 if SoFi hits its revenue and earnings goals. ^[30]

The bear case

Skeptics focus on:

Valuation risk
- P/E near 56x and multiple valuation models (e.g., Simply Wall St) flagging SoFi as potentially 200%+ overvalued relative to fundamentals. ^[31]
Analyst caution
- Consensus ratings firmly in “Hold” territory, with average price targets below the current share price. ^[32]
Dilution from capital raises
- The new $1.5 billion offering expands the share count meaningfully, and investors may worry it won’t be the last capital raise if growth ambitions stay aggressive. ^[33]
Credit and macro exposure
- SoFi still has a large loan book, and a weaker economy, higher‑than‑expected defaults, or regulatory changes around consumer finance could pressure results. ^[34]
Execution risk
- Integrating new products (crypto, AI ETFs, payments), managing rapid growth, and competing with big banks and other fintechs all raise the bar for flawless execution. ^[35]

Meyka’s summary captures the current mood as mixed: some investors see the capital raise as fuel for the next leg of growth, while others focus on the immediate dilution and premium valuation. ^[36]

What today’s news means if you already own SOFI

For existing shareholders, the new stock offering is a classic short‑term pain, potentially long‑term gain situation:

Near term:
- Supply of shares is rising, there’s a clear dilution hit to EPS, and traders may continue to sell into the deal. Volatility is likely to stay high. ^[37]
Long term:
- If SoFi deploys the additional capital effectively—funding profitable growth, strengthening its balance sheet, and supporting new fee‑based products—the raise could support the growth story rather than undermine it. ^[38]

Whether that trade‑off is attractive depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance and conviction in SoFi’s strategy.

Bottom line: Is SoFi stock a buy, hold or sell after the offering?

There’s no single “correct” answer, and nothing here is personal financial advice. But based on the latest data and commentary:

Fundamentals look strong. Revenue, profits, members and products are all growing at impressive rates, with management guiding to continued double‑digit growth and rising EPS. ^[39]
The balance sheet is getting stronger, but at a cost. The $1.5 billion share sale adds capital but dilutes existing holders and has triggered a sharp pullback. ^[40]
Valuation is demanding. Most analyst targets now sit at or below the current price, and independent models question whether the stock’s premium is sustainable. ^[41]
Long‑term upside is possible—but not guaranteed. If SoFi can hit something close to the revenue and earnings trajectory envisioned by management and bullish forecasters like 24/7 Wall St., the stock could still compound meaningfully over the next 5–10 years. ^[42]

For short‑term traders, today’s offering and gap‑down may simply be another chapter in a volatile, momentum‑driven story.

For long‑term investors, the key questions are:

Do you believe SoFi can sustain 20%+ annual revenue growth while expanding margins?
Are you comfortable paying a premium multiple for that growth, knowing that any stumble could trigger a sharp re‑rating?
How much dilution and capital‑raising risk are you willing to tolerate along the way?

As always, it’s wise to do your own research, stress‑test your assumptions, and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making big moves in a stock as volatile as SoFi.