NEW YORK, March 10, 2026, 17:10 (EDT)
The S&P 500 dipped 0.21% to close at 6,781.48 on Tuesday, erasing earlier advances. Market debate intensified: a Forbes/Trefis piece floated a potential 25% correction for the index, while FXStreet’s Dr. Arnout Ter Schure maintained that even with the latest pullback, new highs remain possible. Investors juggled shifting headlines from overseas and a volatile crude session.
The split is suddenly front and center as markets react to dueling signals. Brent crude slid 11% on Tuesday, after hitting $119.50 just the day before. Traders delayed their bets on the first Federal Reserve rate cut, now eyeing July. The VIX shot above 30 on Monday—a level not seen in almost a year—bringing back stagflation worries: weak growth, sticky inflation. Andrew Lipow at Lipow Oil Associates pointed to hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a key driver of the crude drop.
The benchmark sits roughly 3% off its Jan. 27 record close at 6,978.60—well short of the 10% drop that typically signals a correction. That narrow buffer is fueling debate on Wall Street: traders are weighing if last week’s moves signal a deeper downturn or if this is just a geopolitical jolt that could recede as oil prices settle.
Ter Schure—who contributes to FXStreet and manages Intelligent Investing—flagged the move under 6,780 as a sign the pullback was gathering steam. Still, he argues the index might find its legs again and push up toward 7,120–7,190, even hitting fresh highs, provided it keeps above 6,636. For him, it’s all about what the charts are showing, not the macro backdrop.
Trefis didn’t mince words. In a March 9 note posted on its site and picked up by Forbes, the firm warned that Brent holding above $110, supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and a Fed handcuffed on further cuts could put pressure on pricey equities—a setup reminiscent of 2022, when surging oil sent the S&P 500 tumbling 25% from its highs.
Tuesday brought more sharp swings. “There’s a lot of confusion among investors,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder. Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest called oil’s rebound a “pretty violent reversal”—the sort that shows up after those parabolic surges. Reuters
Wall Street isn’t fully on board with that outlook. Back in February, a Reuters survey showed that nine out of 13 strategists were bracing for a correction within three months. Still, the S&P 500 median year-end forecast stood at 7,500. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute urged investors to “look through those near-term headlines” and expects WTI to settle back in the $65-$75 range. Reuters
The market’s divide played out on Tuesday: Dow slipped 0.07%, while the Nasdaq squeaked out a 0.01% rise. Tech stood alone in the S&P 500’s green column; energy lagged after a sharp drop in crude. Nvidia tacked on 1.2%. Oracle surged over 7% in late trading off its earnings report.
The bullish outlook hangs on oil prices cooling off soon. According to the EIA, Brent might remain above $95 for the next two months if the Iran conflict continues to tighten supply. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie have flagged that a wider shutdown in the Gulf could send crude shooting to $150—a leap that would ramp up inflation, squeeze consumers, and complicate the Fed’s next steps.
With CPI, the GDP revision, and PCE figures all due this week, there’s a chance some uncertainty will clear up. For now, the S&P 500 sits wedged between a cooling energy rally and a Federal Reserve that hasn’t shown much flexibility.
