NEW YORK — Monday, December 15, 2025 (11:40 a.m. ET) — The S&P 500 is steady in late-morning trading as Wall Street starts the final full trading week of 2025 with a familiar mix of optimism and caution: hopes for easier rates in 2026, nerves around big-tech valuations, and a packed calendar of delayed U.S. economic data that could quickly change the market’s direction. [1]
As of 11:27 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 (SPX) was at 6,836.37, up 0.13% on the day (quotes may be delayed). [2]
S&P 500 live update: early gains fade, trading stays rangebound
The S&P 500 opened the week attempting to recover from last week’s volatility and Friday’s pullback in momentum and tech. In early trading, Reuters reported the index up 0.33% at 6,849.85 at 9:35 a.m. ET, before the move moderated later in the morning. [3]
So far Monday, price action has been more “grind” than “breakout.” Investing.com data showed the index trading within an intraday range roughly between 6,820 and 6,868 during the session (figures update over time). [4]
What that means for investors: the market is still close enough to recent highs to keep the “year-end rally” narrative alive, but still jumpy enough that one hot inflation print—or another sharp tech selloff—could quickly flip sentiment.
What’s moving the stock market today: a tug-of-war between “soft landing” hopes and AI doubts
1) Consumer discretionary and select megacaps provide support
Early leadership came from consumer discretionary, helped by a surge in Tesla and a rebound in select AI-linked names. Reuters noted that 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher early Monday, with consumer discretionary up about 1%, boosted by Tesla jumping 4.5%. [5]
2) AI remains the market’s biggest swing factor
Even with pockets of strength, the market’s center of gravity remains the AI trade—and that trade is wobbling.
- The Associated Press described a market still being “kept in check” by mixed performance in AI-linked stocks, with Nvidia up while Oracle and Broadcom fell further after last week’s sharp moves. [6]
- Reuters’ “Morning Bid” framed the backdrop bluntly: after an “unnerving” shakeout late last week, investors are trying to stabilize risk appetite while keeping one eye on whether the AI boom is becoming more fragile into year-end. [7]
That fragility is not just about day-to-day trading. A separate Reuters report highlighted a deeper concern from Bridgewater: Big Tech’s rising reliance on external capital to finance AI spending is “dangerous,” and Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen warned there’s a “reasonable probability” of a bubble forming. [8]
The week’s main catalyst: delayed jobs data and fresh inflation numbers
Investors aren’t just watching earnings and megacaps—this week is loaded with macro updates that were delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, and markets are bracing for sharp moves if the numbers surprise. [9]
Key items on the calendar:
- Tuesday: delayed nonfarm payrolls data (Reuters said figures for October and November are due) [10]
- Later this week: additional reports on inflation, business activity, and jobless claims [11]
The AP report underscored why these releases matter: investors want a labor market that cools “just enough” to allow rate cuts without tipping the economy into recession. [12]
This is the classic late-cycle setup for stocks:
- Softer labor data can be bullish if it points to rate relief.
- But inflation that stays sticky can be bearish because it challenges the valuation case—especially for high-multiple tech.
Reuters quoted Chris Larkin of E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley capturing the market’s mindset: the risk is a “bad news is good” regime—until the news is too bad. [13]
Rates and the Fed: Williams says policy is near “neutral,” inflation could cool in 2026
Markets are also weighing what the Federal Reserve does next after last week’s rate cut—and how fast inflation can come down.
On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is “well positioned” heading into 2026 and that the Fed has moved from a modestly restrictive stance “toward neutral” after the recent cut. [14]
He also laid out an inflation path investors will be watching closely:
- Williams said he expects inflation to moderate to 2.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, alongside a gradually cooling labor market. [15]
Bond yields reflected some of the cautious tone. AP reported the 10-year Treasury yield easing to around 4.15% in morning trading, while Reuters’ global markets coverage also showed the 10-year yield slightly lower as investors awaited data and central bank decisions. [16]
For equities, the message is straightforward: if yields stay contained, the S&P 500 can keep supporting premium valuations. If yields reaccelerate higher, the market’s most expensive corners—especially AI-linked megacaps—are likely to feel the pressure first.
Politics adds another variable: markets track Fed chair shortlist chatter
In an unusual late-year wrinkle for markets, investors are also digesting new political noise around the next Federal Reserve chair.
Reuters reported that President Donald Trump has narrowed his search to Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett, which has fed speculation about how dovish the next Fed leadership could be—and whether that increases the odds of rate cuts in 2026. [17]
Reuters “Morning Bid” also noted how prediction-market odds moved after the comments—an example of how quickly this topic is now bleeding into daily market psychology. [18]
Forecasts and year-ahead outlook: Citi’s 7,700 target puts AI back at the center
While today’s market is trading off this week’s data risks, strategists are also publishing “next year” roadmaps—and they’re increasingly converging on a familiar theme: AI still matters, but the winners may change.
On December 15, Reuters reported that Citigroup set a 2026 year-end S&P 500 target of 7,700, implying roughly 12.7% upside from the prior close of 6,827.41. Citi also projected 2026 S&P 500 EPS of $320, above consensus cited around $310. [19]
The most important takeaway from Citi’s call isn’t just the number—it’s the rotation thesis:
- Citi expects AI to remain a key theme, but argues focus may shift from AI “enablers” to AI “adopters,” creating a “winner versus loser” dynamic inside the index. [20]
- Citi also flagged that higher starting valuations raise the bar for fundamentals—and could mean more volatility as the bull market matures. [21]
Citi’s scenario range was wide:
- Bull case: 8,300
- Bear case: 5,700 [22]
This widening range lines up with the day-to-day tape: it’s not hard to see how a strong economic re-acceleration (or rapid disinflation) can push the index higher—while a renewed spike in yields or a deeper AI confidence shock could do the opposite.
Technical and seasonal picture: the year-end rally case meets a big resistance zone
Beyond headlines, technicians are watching whether the S&P 500 can regain and hold the psychological 6,900 area that has acted as a “hesitation point” in recent months.
A December 15 analysis from Schaeffer’s Research argued the S&P 500 is entering a historically stronger part of the calendar (the second half of December), while also flagging resistance levels around 6,890–6,900 and the nearby October highs. [23]
Schaeffer’s also highlighted the seasonal nuance: the first half of December is historically weaker on average, while the second half tends to be stronger—meaning the path of least resistance can shift quickly if macro data cooperates. [24]
Translation: if the market gets “good enough” numbers this week, the tape has a plausible runway for a year-end drift higher. If not, traders will likely keep selling rallies into resistance.
Corporate movers influencing the index today
Even on macro-heavy weeks, single-stock moves can still tug on the S&P 500—especially when they’re concentrated in heavyweight themes like AI, consumer discretionary, and enterprise software.
Names and stories in focus Monday include:
- Tesla: strong early gains helped lift consumer discretionary [25]
- Nvidia / Oracle / Broadcom: a continuation of AI crosscurrents after last week’s sharp swings [26]
- ServiceNow: Reuters cited a sharp drop amid a report it’s in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity startup Armis [27]
- iRobot: plunged after filing for bankruptcy protection, weighing on risk sentiment even if the name isn’t an index heavyweight [28]
What to watch for the rest of today and this week
Today (Monday)
Reuters’ “Morning Bid” pointed to U.S. and global markets attempting to stabilize after Friday’s tech-driven shakeout, with attention shifting to upcoming data and central bank meetings. [29]
The big “market-moving” dates
Nasdaq.com and Reuters both emphasized that December 16–18 could bring outsize moves because the government is releasing key delayed indicators and markets have been operating with incomplete visibility during the shutdown period. [30]
Global central banks and cross-asset signals
Reuters’ global markets wrap-up noted the market is also watching a heavy central bank week globally, including expectations around the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and European Central Bank, alongside renewed concerns in China’s property sector. [31]
Bottom line: why the S&P 500 is steady, not surging
At about 11:40 a.m. ET on December 15, the S&P 500 is acting like a market that still believes in the longer-term bullish story—AI productivity, rate relief in 2026, resilient earnings—but is unwilling to chase prices higher without confirmation from the week’s data.
Late morning levels near 6,836 keep the index within striking distance of recent highs, but the tone is cautious: the next move may be decided less by “Santa rally” seasonality and more by whether payrolls and inflation revive (or weaken) the case for lower rates next year. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stooq.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 24. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. apnews.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. stooq.com
