New York, June 12, 2026, 06:25 (EDT)
- SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 a share, selling 555,555,555 Class A shares before its expected Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX today.
- The stock enters public trading with a $1.77 trillion valuation, despite a nearly $5 billion loss last year, making valuation the central risk for buyers.
- The next major catalyst is the first Nasdaq print and first-day close, followed by index-inclusion demand and later lock-up releases.
SpaceX’s initial public offering — an IPO, or the first sale of a company’s shares to public investors — is set to become today’s dominant market event. The company confirmed it priced 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 each, with trading expected on the Nasdaq Global Select Market and Nasdaq Texas under SPCX, and Reuters reported that the sale raised $75 billion and valued SpaceX at $1.77 trillion. For stock buyers, the key point is that $135 is the offering price, not necessarily the price retail investors will pay once Nasdaq’s opening auction sets the first tradable price.
The first thing to know is that valuation is already stretched by ordinary public-market standards. Reuters reported that SpaceX generated only a fraction of the revenue of similarly valued technology giants and posted a loss of nearly $5 billion last year; at $1.77 trillion against 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, the price-to-sales multiple — market value divided by annual revenue — is about 95 times trailing sales. That makes the stock highly sensitive to any disappointment in Starlink growth, AI execution or investor appetite after the debut.
The second thing is that near-term trading may be driven as much by supply and demand as by fundamentals. Reuters reported that SpaceX is expected to start with only about 7% of its listed shares freely tradable, while MSCI’s early-inclusion rules could push passive funds — funds that automatically track an index — to buy if SpaceX is added. Reuters also said fast-track Nasdaq 100 inclusion could take about a month, creating another possible source of demand, but low free float can cut both ways by amplifying volatility when buyers or sellers crowd the market.
The third thing is that the bull case rests on SpaceX being more than a rocket company. Starlink is still the main revenue engine, Reuters reported, while SpaceX says its space operations accounted for more than four-fifths of mass launched into orbit over the past three years and that its total addressable market — the revenue pool it says it can eventually pursue — spans $28.5 trillion. The company’s roadshow also said proceeds will fund AI compute infrastructure, launch systems, launch vehicles and satellite constellation capacity, so investors are effectively buying a mix of Starlink, launch dominance and long-term AI optionality.
The fourth thing is that Wall Street is split. Oppenheimer began coverage with an outperform rating — a call that the stock should beat the market or peer group — and a $190 target, with analyst Timothy Horan calling SpaceX the “only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” Morningstar, by contrast, said it values SpaceX at $63 a share, a 53% discount to the IPO price, arguing that only its most optimistic “moonshot” scenario comes close to justifying the offering price. Reuters
The fifth thing is that governance and selling pressure are real risks. Reuters reported that Musk will retain 82% of voting power after the IPO, while UK retail-offer disclosures flagged governance and voting-control risk, key-person risk, financing risk, regulatory risk, AI/data/cyber risk and the risk that retail investors may not fully appreciate the speculative nature of SpaceX’s long-term plans. A lock-up — a restriction on insiders or early holders selling stock — also matters: SpaceX’s roadshow said Musk is subject to a 366-day lock-up, while other holders face staggered release schedules that could add supply after future earnings dates.
For today, the stock looks risky rather than clearly attractive or fairly valued at the $135 IPO price. The bull case is credible if investors believe SpaceX can turn Starlink cash flow, launch scale and AI infrastructure into years of high-growth earnings, and early index demand could support the first weeks of trading. But the bear case is equally visible: a record valuation, recent losses, concentrated voting control, heavy execution risk and a first-day market likely to be volatile. “The real test will be how the market digests the IPO over the next several weeks, not just one day,” Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments, told Reuters; the immediate catalyst is the first Nasdaq trade and closing price, while the next fundamental test is how SpaceX reports post-IPO earnings and handles lock-up-related supply. Reuters
