NEW YORK, April 6, 2026, 07:09 EDT
Stock futures in the U.S. ticked up early Monday, while oil slipped, with investors caught between cease-fire talks in the Iran conflict and President Donald Trump’s fresh warnings to Tehran. S&P 500 futures picked up around 0.3%. Nasdaq contracts climbed too. Brent crude hovered at about $108 a barrel—trading was thin coming off the holiday.
Here’s the crux: About a fifth of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Any fresh turmoil there could quickly drive up fuel prices, ramping up inflation. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has already warned this could result in “stickier inflation” and possibly interest rates that overshoot what traders are pricing in. The Wall Street Journal
Rate-cut odds have slimmed since last week. The latest U.S. jobs data, coming in hotter than expected, pressured hopes for a Federal Reserve move. Citigroup on Monday shifted its expected first rate cut to September, pushing it back from June after the payrolls figures forced a rethink.
“The markets are obviously nervous,” said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at OCBC. For Mark Matthews, who heads research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer, the resilience of Asian stocks was “puzzling”—he figures traders must be counting on either a brief conflict or enough stimulus to cushion the impact. Reuters
Trading stayed thin with a number of markets still closed for holidays, which probably helped prevent any sharp swings. Dow futures inched higher, S&P futures picked up roughly 0.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield was steady near 4.36%.
Wall Street saw a weaker open for several oil majors, with Exxon Mobil down 1.3%, Chevron off 1%, and Occidental Petroleum shedding 1.7%. This came despite the main indexes snapping a six-week losing streak with their first weekly advance.
The cease-fire remains fragile. Iran’s still not reopening Hormuz during the pause, and XAnalysts founder Mukesh Sahdev argues the standoff over the strait is turning into a battle for “political victory” as well as a logistics struggle for shippers. Reuters
Pressure is spilling over beyond the monitors. Spot premiums on U.S. WTI crude headed to North Asia surged, hitting $30 to $40 per barrel for July shipments. Buyers turned away from Middle Eastern supply are scrambling for “every available Atlantic Basin barrel,” according to Rystad’s Paola Rodriguez-Masiu. Reuters
Later Monday, the ISM services report is on deck—a possible gauge of whether the oil shock is filtering into the wider economy. Wall Street, for now, is forced to juggle two headlines: cease-fire speculation pushing futures higher, and the lurking threat that another crude spike could erase those gains fast.
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