NEW YORK, June 30, 2026, 04:13 EDT
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI closed down 8.1% Monday, even as the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%.
- Reports of Taiwan office raids added fresh export-control risk to a stock already hit by dilution fears.
- The company’s $39 billion of recent AI server orders equals about two times its $19.5 billion market value.
- Its potential $7 billion equity raise equals about 36% of Monday’s market value.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI enters Tuesday’s regular U.S. session with a sharp split in the numbers: $39 billion of recent AI server orders, a $19.5 billion market value, and a stock price now sitting only 2.4% above the price of its latest underwritten common-share sale. The shares closed Monday at $28.15, down 8.1%, on volume of 91.16 million shares, or 184% of the 65-day average.
The fall was not a chip-sector trade. The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) rose 2.1% Monday and the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) rose 1.2%, according to AP. The iShares Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXX was last up 4.0% in available quote data.
| Instrument / company | Last cited move | Latest cited value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI | -8.1% | $19.5 bln market value | Stock sold off despite AI order backlog |
| Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) | +2.1% | 25,820.14 close | Broad growth tape was higher |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXX | +4.0% | $614.35 | Semis rallied while SMCI fell |
| Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA | +1.2% | $4.76 trln market value | Main AI-chip supplier stayed bid |
| Dell Technologies Inc. NYSE:DELL | +3.7% | $272.0 bln market value | Server peer gained |
The immediate pressure came after reports that Taiwanese authorities raided Supermicro’s Taiwan office as part of a probe into alleged Nvidia chip smuggling to China. The Financial Times reported that Albatron Technology Co., a Super Micro distributor, was also searched and that Super Micro said it was cooperating with Taiwanese and global authorities.
The legal overhang is not new. Reuters reported in May that Taiwanese prosecutors were investigating three people suspected of illegally exporting high-end AI servers made by Super Micro and containing Nvidia chips that were subject to U.S. export controls. Reuters also reported in March that Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw resigned from the board after U.S. charges tied to alleged AI-chip smuggling; Super Micro was not named as a defendant and said it had cooperated with investigators.
The harder investor math is dilution. Super Micro priced 45.45 million common shares at $27.50 each and 75 million depositary shares at $50 each, with each depositary share tied to 7.0% mandatory convertible preferred stock. The company also entered an at-the-market program of up to $1.25 billion, not expected to start before the third quarter.
| Super Micro funding / order math | Amount or share count | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Recent AI server orders | About $39 bln | About 2.0x Monday market value |
| Potential equity raise | $7.0 bln | About 36% of Monday market value |
| Common stock priced June 11 | 45.45 mln shares at $27.50 | Monday close was only 2.4% higher |
| Mandatory convertible depositary shares | 75.0 mln | Base conversion implies 113.6 mln-136.4 mln common shares |
| ATM program, if sold at Monday close | About 44.4 mln shares | Actual count depends on sale price |
| Illustrated base share addition | 203.5 mln-226.2 mln shares | About 29%-33% of 695 mln GAAP diluted share count used in Q4 outlook |
That is why the order figure has not put a clear floor under the stock. The $39 billion of recent orders is almost equal to the midpoint of Super Micro’s fiscal 2026 sales outlook of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion, and about 3.8 times its third-quarter net sales of $10.2 billion. Yet the same third-quarter report showed $6.6 billion of cash used in operations, $1.3 billion of cash and equivalents, and $8.8 billion of bank debt and convertible notes as of March 31.
Super Micro said the proceeds would fund component purchases to satisfy about $39 billion of orders from more than 20 customers for advanced AI servers, including its Data Center Building Block Solutions. It said some proceeds may also go to debt repayment, working capital and capital spending.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said in a client note cited by Investor’s Business Daily that he viewed “incremental order momentum as positive,” but that the financing was “necessarily dilutive in nature.” He kept a neutral rating and a $34 price target. Investor’s Business Daily
Chief Executive Charles Liang said in May that Supermicro’s “transformation into a total datacenter infrastructure provider is accelerating.” Since then, the stock has dropped 43.9% over one month and 15.5% over five sessions, according to MarketWatch performance data. SEC
The next test is fiscal fourth-quarter delivery. Super Micro’s May outlook called for June-quarter net sales of $11.0 billion to $12.5 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings of 65 cents to 79 cents a share. Its fiscal year ends June 30.
