NEW YORK, August 13, 2026, 04:30 EDT — U.S. cash markets have ended the session.
- Nebius shares jumped 34% on Wednesday following revenue and adjusted EBITDA results that exceeded expectations.
- Customer prepayments projected for 2026 are set to top $9 billion, compared with $5.7 billion in capital expenditure for the second quarter.
- A GAAP loss of $190 million indicates that execution risk remains even when customer financing is used.
Nebius Group NASDAQ:NBIS jumped 34% on Wednesday after reporting second-quarter revenue and adjusted profit above expectations. Demand for AI computing capacity drove the gains, ranking Nebius among the top large-cap performers of the session.
The more reliable indicator was financing, rather than just growth. Nebius anticipates over $9 billion in customer prepayments this year, which is about 1.6 times its second-quarter capital expenditure as reported.
Receiving advance cash lessens the need for new debt or issuing more equity. It also shifts delivery responsibilities to Nebius. As a result, investors are supporting an expansion that has stronger backing, but not necessarily one with minimal risk.
| Second-quarter measure | Actual | Comparison | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $582.3 million | $572.75 million estimate | 1.7% higher |
| Revenue growth | 454% year on year | $105.1 million in Q2 2025 | Over five times higher |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $236 million | $169 million estimate | Beats by 39.6% |
| GAAP net result | $190 million loss | Positive adjusted EBITDA | Profitability gap persists |
Revenue rose to $582.3 million, up from $105.1 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $236 million, coming in roughly 40% higher than analysts had projected.
Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at approximately 40.5%. However, Nebius posted a GAAP net loss of $190 million. Depreciation, financing expenses, and ongoing growth initiatives continue to keep operating gains distinct from net earnings.
| Funding and demand measure | Value | Investor interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 capital expenditure | $5.7 billion | Significant early investment required |
| Expected 2026 customer prepayments | More than $9 billion | Possible customer-driven cash reserves |
| Prepayments versus Q2 capex | More than 1.58 times | Covers costs but does not generate free cash flow |
| Customer commitments | More than $40 billion | Extensive future revenue pipeline |
Approximately 70% of deals in the second quarter involved prepayments. Nebius secured four AI-cloud agreements, each averaging over $1 billion. The overall contract value surged nearly fourfold during the quarter.
Chief Executive Arkady Volozh stated Nebius would be able to “sell all of our 2027 capacity” under present conditions. The statement is based on strong visibility, highlighting the increased expense associated with any delay in deployment. Reuters
| Capacity indicator | Latest position | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 contracted-power target | 5 gigawatts | Increased with Q2 earnings |
| New annual deployment | Above 1 gigawatt | Starting from 2027 |
| Large new contracts | Four, averaging more than $1 billion each | Agreed in Q2 |
| Deal economics | Exceeds $20 million annual contract value per megawatt | Capacity to go online by the end of Q4 |
Nebius relies on NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA accelerators throughout its AI cloud services. The company maintains significant customer contracts with dedicated capacity for leading technology firms. Among them, a five-year deal with Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META secures $12 billion in committed capacity, with options for an additional $15 billion.
| Analyst rating | Number |
|---|---|
| Strong buy | 3 |
| Buy | 9 |
| Hold | 5 |
| Sell | 0 |
| Overall consensus | Moderate buy |
Analysts are generally positive, though opinions vary. Out of 17 ratings, 12 are buy or strong buy recommendations, while 5 analysts rate the stock as a hold. Price targets range from $120 to $410, reflecting a broad divergence in expectations for capacity, margins and financing.
Risks: Dependence on a small number of clients, potential issues with GPU supply chains, and possible construction setbacks may hinder deployment. Delivery is required to recognize prepayments. Elevated capital requirements, debt levels and an expensive post-rally valuation offer limited tolerance for setbacks.
Confirmation is key in the week to come. Investors will monitor producer price figures, supply cues related to NVIDIA, and updates on the timeline for prepayments. At Nebius, cash conversion has become more significant than securing a new headline agreement.
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