AMSTERDAM, August 14, 2026, 00:10 CEST — U.S. equity markets did not open.
Nebius Group N.V. NASDAQ:NBIS finished at $255.04 on Thursday, holding onto a two-day advance of 32.0% following its quarterly earnings report. The stock declined 1.6% during Thursday’s session, after jumping 34.1% on Wednesday.
The rally is now set to undergo a funding test. Nebius invested $5.66 billion in capital expenditures in the quarter, equal to 9.7 times its quarterly revenue and 24 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Investors responded to a 454% jump in revenue and adjusted EBITDA turning positive. However, the expansion continues to be capital-intensive. Capital expenditures for the second quarter were nearly 10 times greater than the revenue for the period.
| Market measure | August 11 | August 12 | August 13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close | $193.23 | $259.20 | $255.04 |
| Daily move | +5.0% | +34.1% | -1.6% |
| Session range | $187.31-$195.60 | $216.11-$259.44 | $247.38-$275.96 |
| Volume | 22.5 million | 63.5 million | 36.0 million |
The group posted revenue of $582.3 million, with $575 million, or 98%, coming from its main AI-cloud segment. Annualized run-rate revenue climbed 598% year-on-year to $3.0 billion.
| Q2 measure | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group revenue | $582.3 million | $105.1 million | up 454% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $236.2 million | ($21.0 million) | Returned to profit |
| Adjusted net loss | ($33.2 million) | ($91.5 million) | Loss reduced by 64% |
| GAAP net income/(loss) | ($190.4 million) | $502.5 million | Previous period had revaluation gain |
| AI-cloud ARR | $3.0 billion | About $430 million | up 598% |
Founder and Chief Executive Arkady Volozh said, “This was the quarter the market validated our strategy.” Nebius secured four AI-cloud agreements, each averaging over $1 billion. shareholder letter
The agreements enhanced funding conditions. Around 70% involved customer prepayments accounting for 50% to 60% of the associated capital expenses. Nebius anticipates receiving over $9 billion in customer prepayments in 2026.
| Capital measure | June quarter/end | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | $5.66 billion | 9.7 times quarterly sales |
| Operating cash flow | $2.25 billion | Supported by advance payments from customers |
| Cash and equivalents | $8.04 billion | Rose from $3.68 billion at prior year-end |
| Total debt | $8.55 billion | About $0.50 billion higher than cash |
| Deferred revenue | $5.98 billion | Increased by $4.40 billion since year-end |
The funding approach is significant. Customer advances generated $2.25 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter. Nebius, meanwhile, invested $5.66 billion in GPUs, associated hardware and the expansion of data centers.
Nebius increased its contracted power goal for the end of the year to 5 gigawatts. The company aims to add over 1 gigawatt each year starting in 2027. The expansion rate is now determined by the capacity delivered, not by demand.
| Analyst recommendation measure | Tracked reading | Versus $255.04 close |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Global consensus | Strong Buy; 3 analysts | Post-results sample |
| Average target | $312.67 | +22.6% |
| Median target | $314.00 | +23.1% |
| Low target | $300.00 | +17.6% |
| High target | $324.00 | +27.0% |
The present consensus recommendation is Strong Buy. The average price target stands at $312.67, indicating a potential upside of 22.6%. However, this assessment is based on just three analyst forecasts, and subsequent updates following results could significantly alter this view.
Risks: Receiving customer prepayments strengthens cash flow but results in commitments to deliver. Delays in power supply, GPUs, or data center readiness could postpone revenue, even as debt and depreciation persist. The second quarter reported a GAAP loss of $190.4 million.
Investors are set to challenge the $247.38 post-earnings low and the $275.96 high reached on Thursday next week. Analyst updates may redefine the present valuation cap. Nebius has not announced any additional company events on the calendar for the upcoming week.
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