AMSTERDAM, August 12, 2026, 13:45 CEST
- Nebius is due to report before Wednesday’s Nasdaq open.
- Its $193.23 close implies roughly $49 billion of equity value.
- The key test is conversion of contracted capacity into current revenue.
Nebius Group N.V. NASDAQ:NBIS enters Wednesday’s results with a demanding valuation. The shares closed Tuesday at $193.23, before the company’s scheduled premarket release.
That price values Nebius near $49 billion using March’s 253.9 million shares. It equals about 25 times the first-quarter annualized revenue run rate.
| Valuation checkpoint | Value | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday close | $193.23 | Yahoo Finance market data |
| Shares outstanding | 253.9 million | March 31 disclosure |
| Implied equity value | $49.1 billion | Price × shares |
| Q1 AI-cloud ARR | $1.92 billion | March monthly revenue × 12 |
| Price-to-ARR proxy | 25.6 times | Equity value ÷ ARR |
The market has not opened. Nebius says the numbers will arrive before the bell. Its earnings call starts at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
The investor question is simple. Can near-term capacity growth catch the valuation?
First-quarter group revenue reached $399.0 million. AI-cloud revenue was $389.7 million, or 98% of the total. The cloud unit’s adjusted EBITDA margin reached 45%.
| Operating measure | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group revenue | $50.9 million | $399.0 million | +684% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$53.7 million | $129.5 million | Turned positive |
| Cost of revenue / sales | 49% | 26% | -23 points |
| Capital purchases | $543.9 million | $2.47 billion | +355% |
The operating leverage is visible. Yet capital purchases exceeded quarterly revenue by 6.2 times. That gap makes financing and commissioning progress as important as growth.
Management’s standing 2026 targets are $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion of revenue. It also targets $7 billion to $9 billion of year-end ARR. The midpoint requires ARR to rise about 4.2 times from March.
| Guidance bridge | Low | Midpoint | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue | $3.0 billion | $3.2 billion | $3.4 billion |
| Year-end ARR | $7.0 billion | $8.0 billion | $9.0 billion |
| ARR growth from Q1 | 3.6× | 4.2× | 4.7× |
| Price / target ARR | 7.0× | 6.1× | 5.5× |
Founder and Chief Executive Arkady Volozh said first-quarter pipeline generation rose about 3.5 times sequentially. He also said contracted power exceeded 3.5 gigawatts.
Wednesday’s release can test those claims with three figures. Investors need active capacity, quarterly AI-cloud revenue and updated year-end ARR guidance.
| Analyst view | Rating | Target | Published action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Outperform | $250 | Initiated, July 22 |
| Northland | Outperform | $410 | Raised, July 20 |
| Freedom Capital | Buy | $200 | Upgraded, July 20 |
| BNP Paribas Exane | Neutral | $255 | Initiated, June 2 |
| Consensus | Buy | $258.13 | 17 analysts |
Analysts remain mostly positive, but their range is wide. The published low is $120 and the high is $410. That spread reflects unusual uncertainty around deployment pace and capital needs.
Nebius held $9.30 billion of cash at March 31. Non-current debt was $8.43 billion. Customer prepayments helped lift deferred revenue to $4.78 billion.
Risks: delays in power, buildings or GPUs could slow revenue conversion. Customer concentration, price pressure and further funding may also move the stock sharply.
The coming report is therefore less about another large backlog number. It is about whether installed capacity is climbing fast enough to support today’s price.
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