NEW YORK, July 24, 2026, 13:06 EDT
- Super Micro shares were at $30.98, off 0.7%, at 12:51 EDT. Nasdaq continued trading, with the normal session scheduled to finish at 16:00 EDT. The stock was trading 28.1% higher versus its July 17 close.
- Initial projection: With a 16% margin on $11 billion in revenue, gross profit would total $1.76 billion. Earlier forecasts had indicated $913 million.
- Orders in the fourth quarter topped $60 billion, surpassing the quarter’s revenue cap by over 4.8 times.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI retained much of its weekly gain on Friday. Shares reacted to a significant revision in projected gross profit.
Short-term sales outlook is less impressive. The company projects fourth-quarter revenue toward the lower end of its $11 billion to $12.5 billion forecast. Analysts surveyed by Wall Street had estimated $11.67 billion.
Preliminary estimate: With $11 billion in sales, a 16% margin results in gross profit of $1.76 billion. Previously, the 8.3% midpoint gave $913 million. The difference stands at $847 million, representing a 93% increase.
The $847 million represents roughly 13% of the previous quarter’s $6.6 billion operating cash outflow. Cash flow figures for the fourth quarter have not yet been disclosed.
Both margin scenarios are based on $11 billion in revenue, according to a reporter calculation using initial company guidance.
| Fiscal Q4 2026 measure | Prior guidance | Latest preliminary view | Difference or context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.0B-$12.5B | Close to the lower bound | Consensus stood at $11.67B |
| Gross margin | 8.2%-8.4% | 15%-17% | Increase of 6.6-8.8 percentage points |
| Gross profit at $11B sales | $902M-$924M | $1.65B-$1.87B | Rises by $726M-$968M |
| New orders received | Not stated | Above $60B | To be delivered in coming quarters |
Orders placed surpassed $60 billion, more than 4.8 times the maximum sales cap of $12.5 billion. On the lower end, this ratio increases to 5.5.
Shipments are expected over upcoming quarters. According to the SEC filing, certain orders could be subject to cancellation, postponements, or may not have binding commitments.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM indicated that fourth-quarter earnings per share might exceed current forecasts by a minimum of 80%. They noted that investors would likely scrutinize the sustainability of margins.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson attributed the increase in margins to limited supply of AI servers. He noted that Super Micro probably “was able to take advantage of scarcity” via its pricing strategy and product mix. Barron’s
Dell Technologies Inc. NYSE:DELL climbed 10% on Wednesday, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. NYSE:HPE advanced 5.6%.
Mizuho Securities lowered its price target to $34 from $44 on Thursday, maintaining a Neutral rating. The new target stood 9.7% higher than the most recent Friday quote.
Super Micro revealed a $7 billion equity and equity-linked financing initiative in June, targeting the purchase of components to support around $39 billion in AI-server orders.
As of March 31, cash stood at $1.3 billion, while bank debt and convertible notes were $8.8 billion in total.
Final results will be released on August 11. The company has scheduled its conference call for 17:00 EDT. The report is expected to confirm if the margin increase translates to operating cash.
Risks: The data are still preliminary. Certain orders might be postponed or canceled, and additional equity offerings could result in shareholder dilution.
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