Foldable iPhone

November 2, 2025, 5:16 PM EST. The divide between the stock market and the economy is blurring as a stronger wealth effect lifts consumption and, with it, GDP. Oxford Economics data show every 1% rise in stock wealth nudges consumption by about 0.05%; rising housing wealth adds roughly 0.04%. In a 70%-of-GDP economy, that spillover matters. Digital media accelerates sentiment, making these effects more responsive. AI-driven stocks-led by Nvidia and other hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google-help explain resilient spending, with estimates of nearly $250 billion in annual consumption from tech gains in the past year. JPMorgan pegs AI-linked stock wealth gains at over $5 trillion, lifting spending by about $180 billion (0.9% of total). Still, the stock market is not the economy, but rising risk could push policy incentives from the Fed and Congress toward Wall Street.

November 2, 2025, 4:30 PM EST. Public Storage shares recently closed at $278.56, down 7.8% over the week and 6.1% year-to-date. The stock's 5-year TSR remains solid around 49%, while the fair value is pegged at $322.74, suggesting the name is undervalued versus current levels. Analysts see potential upside as shares trade below targets, underpinned by digital tools, data-driven pricing, and operational efficiencies that could drive margin expansion. Yet risks include Sunbelt oversupply and California regulatory headwinds. The stock trades at a P/E of 28.9x, above the U.S. REIT average but below peers, with a fair ratio near 33.5x-a case for value if growth stays intact. The question: is the pullback a true reset or a buying opportunity?

November 2, 2025, 4:28 PM EST. KKR (KKR) shares have fallen 7.3% in the last month after a strong run, with an 18.5% slide in the last quarter. Despite solid long-term gains (three-year TSR 136%, five-year 224%), near-term valuation remains a hot topic. A narrative argues a fair value of $157.91, suggesting the stock may be undervalued at the current $118.33, supported by large embedded unrealized carried interest (> $17B) and a highly marked-up portfolio that could monetize through future exits. Yet risks include competition and private-credit headwinds that could temper growth if fundraising momentum or asset performance weakens. Relative to peers, KKR trades at a P/E of 52.7x, well above the 24x industry average and 39.3x peer average, signaling potential valuation risk if growth slows.

November 2, 2025, 4:12 PM EST. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) saw a modest pullback, with a recent price around $243.92 and a roughly 6% drop in the past month, though YTD performance remains negative. The analysis argues a fair value near $261, signaling the stock could be undervalued if earnings, margins, and sentiment play out as expected. The bull case rests on margin expansion from enterprise initiatives expected to add at least 100 basis points, and a manufacturing model that mitigates tariff headwinds. Risks include softer organic growth and regional weakness in the automotive segment. With ITW trading below that fair value, investors may see upside potential if the narrative succeeds, but near-term momentum looks subdued and sentiment has cooled after a run of gains.

November 2, 2025, 4:02 PM EST. The comparison between the Invesco PBJ and the First Trust FTXG shows similar expense ratios, but PBJ's larger AUM supports liquidity and long-run growth. Over five years, PBJ's growth to about $1,365 from $1,000 surpasses FTXG's roughly $1,016. In the last year, FTXG outpaced PBJ (13.3% vs 5.1%), yet PBJ leads on a multi-year basis with about 45% total return vs FTXG's ~11.5% (dividends included). FTXG is more concentrated in Consumer Defensive with a yield near 2.9%, while PBJ carries a higher drawdown (about -15.82% vs -21.68% for FTXG). Top holdings show the tilt: PBJ's DoorDash/Monster/Hershey; FTXG's PepsiCo/ADM/Mondelez. In short, size and durability matter for investors' liquidity and risk tolerance.