New York, June 23, 2026, 13:09 EDT
Tesla shares fell around 5% by midday Tuesday. A new U.S. safety probe and a slide in big tech stocks cut into the positive impact from the company’s rebound in European sales. Shares opened at $392.15, then traded at $384.63, after hitting an intraday low of $382.10. Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio stood at about 353, using trailing earnings.
Tesla’s delivery numbers are due in less than two weeks, so this matters to investors. Deliveries—cars that go to customers—will be the next clear check on whether demand is rebounding fast enough to keep up the stock’s high valuation.
UBS bumped its Q2 Tesla delivery forecast to 405,000 vehicles, a 5% rise from last year and 13% higher than last quarter. The firm kept its Neutral rating and $364 target. UBS said most are looking for deliveries between 400,000 and 420,000, and Tesla could top that if it ends the quarter strong.
Market action was soft, but Tesla dropped more than most growth names. QQQ slipped around 2.6%. Rivian barely moved. Lucid gained about 1.5%. The pressure didn’t hit all U.S. EV stocks the same way.
Safety worries followed after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it would look into a June 19 crash where a Tesla Model 3 hit a house in Katy, Texas, killing a 76-year-old woman. Tesla’s self-driving lead Ashok Elluswamy said the driver “manually overrode self-driving” by fully pressing the accelerator. Elon Musk called a report on the crash “makes no sense” and said Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software “drives slowly through neighborhood streets.” Reuters
Tesla’s European registrations, a stand-in for sales, climbed 107.9% in May to 28,610, marking four months of gains. But rivals outpaced Tesla again—BYD registrations soared 136.6%, and Leapmotor shot up 465.1%. That dimmed what looked like a solid bullish datapoint.
European car buyers are shifting to electrified models, but the gains aren’t just going to Tesla. ACEA data showed battery-electric cars made up 20% of new EU registrations in the first five months of 2026, up from 15.3% last year. Hybrids reached 37.8%. Petrol and diesel combined dropped to 30.1% from 38.0%.
Baird’s Ben Kallo stuck with his Outperform on Tesla and kept the $522 price target, StreetInsider reported. The firm is looking for second-quarter deliveries of 392,900, which trails consensus at 401,100. Baird thinks Tesla will put out the delivery report before the open on July 2.
The risk now is that the next headline breaks negative. Regulators could spot a defect, the crash probe could expand, or deliveries could fall short after forecasts moved higher. Any of those might push investors to look past Europe’s rebound. Focus could snap back to valuation, safety issues, and the challenge of holding an expensive stock while tech drops.
Right now, the trade is divided. Bulls are betting on Europe, higher delivery guidance and hopes for autonomy. Bears point to a federal investigation, rising Chinese rivals and a stock price that assumes plenty goes right.
