Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) finished the holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session in the mid‑$480s and was slightly lower in after-hours trading—a relatively muted tape for one of the market’s most headline-sensitive mega-caps.
According to Google Finance data, Tesla closed at $485.40 and traded around $484.62 after hours (timestamped shortly after the close). [1] On the day, Tesla traded in a wide range of $476.80 to $490.90, remaining within striking distance of its recent highs, while its 52‑week range sits at $214.25 to $498.82. [2]
The bigger story into the holiday isn’t the tiny after-hours move—it’s why TSLA is still hovering near record territory while (1) regulators are once again circling Tesla’s door systems and (2) delivery expectations for Q4 remain a point of debate, even as many investors increasingly price the company as an autonomy/AI platform rather than a pure automaker.
First, a key calendar reality: “Tomorrow’s open” isn’t a normal open
If you’re planning for “tomorrow,” note the calendar:
- U.S. stock markets closed early today (Dec. 24) at 1:00 p.m. ET for Christmas Eve. [3]
- U.S. markets are closed all day Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day) and then resume normal operations Friday, Dec. 26. [4]
- NYSE guidance also indicates that while the cash session ends early, late trading sessions run later (to 5:00 p.m. ET) on early-close days. [5]
So, what matters most “before the market opens” is really what develops between now and Friday’s open (Dec. 26)—and, more importantly, what investors decide to price ahead of early‑January delivery headlines.
TSLA after-hours snapshot: what the tape is saying tonight
Close: $485.40
After hours (early print): ~$484.62 [6]
A modest dip after hours like this usually signals one of two things:
- The market largely digested today’s headline risk during the shortened session, or
- Traders are unwilling to press bets into illiquid holiday conditions, especially with the next cash session not until Friday.
Holiday trading also tends to amplify noise: lower liquidity can make moves look “bigger” (or “weirder”) than they would during a normal week—especially in a name like Tesla.
What moved Tesla today: NHTSA opens a probe into Model 3 emergency door releases
The most consequential Tesla-specific headline today came from U.S. regulators.
Reuters reported that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated a defect investigation tied to a petition regarding Model Year 2022 Tesla Model 3 sedans (about 179,071 vehicles). The concern is whether emergency door release controls are easily accessible and identifiable, especially in urgent situations. [7]
Important nuance for investors:
- A probe is not the same thing as a recall, but it can lead to recalls or required remedies if regulators find a safety defect. [8]
- This topic taps into a long-running investor sensitivity: regulatory scrutiny + safety perception can quickly shift sentiment, even when near-term financials are unchanged.
Barron’s noted the door-release investigation as a catalyst that weighed on shares intraday, underscoring how quickly safety headlines can hit Tesla’s multiple. [9]
Why door headlines matter more than “one model” suggests
Even if the direct financial cost ends up manageable, safety investigations can influence:
- Brand perception (especially for mainstream buyers)
- Legal overhang narratives
- The probability of additional scrutiny—particularly relevant as Tesla pushes autonomy/robotaxi narratives, where regulators and public trust matter.
The market’s bigger Tesla debate: EV softness vs. robotaxi/AI optionality
One of the clearest themes in today’s Tesla coverage: many investors appear increasingly willing to look through weaker EV sales data—as long as the autonomy/robotaxi story keeps gaining perceived traction.
MarketWatch summed up this pivot bluntly: EV sales have been falling in several regions, yet Wall Street focus has shifted toward robotaxis and AI as the key narrative driver for TSLA’s valuation. [10]
Barron’s framed the same tension in “$500” terms: Tesla has been hovering near the psychologically important $500 level, with bullish narratives tied to autonomy/AI and longer-term robotics optionality—despite pressure in the core vehicle business. [11]
This “two Teslas” framework is useful before the next open:
- Tesla the automaker gets valued on deliveries, pricing, margins, and competition.
- Tesla the AI/autonomy platform gets valued on perceived progress toward robotaxis and scalable software-like economics.
TSLA’s trading near record levels suggests the market is currently giving a lot of weight to the second story.
Forecasts and analyst positioning: deliveries, price targets, and the $500 battleground
Q4 delivery expectations are being trimmed in several corners
Investor’s Business Daily highlighted how even bullish long-term holders are navigating near-term delivery uncertainty.
Key points reported today:
- ARK Invest sold 60,715 Tesla shares across multiple ETFs (portfolio management rather than a thesis break, per the framing). [12]
- Analysts are adjusting Q4 delivery expectations: FactSet’s expectation was cited as ~449,000 deliveries (about a 9.5% YoY decline), while some firms have gone lower. [13]
- IBD also cited Canaccord reducing its Q4 estimate (while raising its price target) and UBS lowering its delivery view and keeping a more cautious stance. [14]
Separately, an Investing.com analysis published today emphasized the same theme: deliveries used to be the quarterly swing factor, but the market may be increasingly focused on robotaxis and Optimus—even while UBS expects about 415,000 deliveries (per that report’s framing). [15]
What to watch: If Tesla’s Q4 deliveries land meaningfully below the “street cluster,” you may still see volatility—but today’s coverage suggests the market’s reaction function could be changing if autonomy headlines dominate.
Price targets: a wide dispersion (and that matters)
If you’re trying to understand why TSLA can be “flat” on a negative regulatory headline, look at the spread in analyst targets.
- StockAnalysis lists a consensus “Buy” with an average target around $402 (implying downside from current levels), with a high target at $600 and an extremely low outlier target also present in the dataset. [16]
- Barron’s pointed out that while the average target sits much lower than current trading levels, there are still multiple prominent bulls above $500, including targets in the mid‑$500s to $600 range, and ARK’s long-term $2,600 by 2029 call that continues to circulate. [17]
- Benzinga’s compilation similarly reflects a high target of $600 and a low outlier target, illustrating how polarized TSLA valuation frameworks remain. [18]
Why this matters before the next open: when targets and narratives are this dispersed, TSLA often trades less like a normal “beat/miss” equity and more like a macro narrative instrument—moving on whichever storyline (safety, robotaxi progress, deliveries, rates) feels most dominant in the moment.
The $500 level: psychological, technical, and headline-driven
Tesla’s 52-week high near $498.82 places $500 right at the intersection of:
- “Round number” psychology
- Recent high-water mark behavior
- Options/positioning dynamics (even without seeing full chain data, round-number strikes historically matter)
Barron’s described Tesla as “fighting for $500,” with investor enthusiasm tied to autonomy and AI even as car sales metrics soften. [19]
Macro backdrop tonight: “Santa rally” tailwinds, thin liquidity, and risk-on tone
Tesla didn’t trade in a vacuum today. U.S. equities broadly ended higher in the shortened session, with Reuters describing record closes and a market tone supported by expectations around rate cuts in 2026 and solid data. [20]
For TSLA specifically, a risk-on backdrop can matter because:
- High multiple / narrative stocks tend to benefit when the market mood is constructive.
- Thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate both dips and rebounds.
What to know before the next U.S. stock market open
Here’s a practical, investor-style checklist for Tesla shareholders and TSLA watchers heading into Friday, Dec. 26.
1) Any follow-up on the NHTSA probe
The Reuters report is the spark. What can fuel a bigger move is:
- Whether Tesla responds publicly
- Whether additional complaints, incidents, or documentation circulate
- Whether the probe expands in scope or triggers parallel scrutiny
Today’s story specifically centers on emergency/manual releases and whether they are hidden or unclear, which can be especially sensitive if the conversation shifts toward passengers being unable to exit after a crash. [21]
2) Delivery “whispers” vs. a market that may care less (but not zero)
Today’s coverage showed the split:
- Some analysts and investors still treat Q4 deliveries as a major near-term swing factor. [22]
- Others argue the market is increasingly focused on robotaxi/Optimus optionality and may not punish a softer print as harshly as it used to—depending on concurrent autonomy headlines. [23]
What to watch into Friday: any credible regional sales data, channel checks, or analyst notes that push consensus materially higher/lower.
3) Robotaxi narrative temperature
Even without a brand-new Tesla announcement today, the stock has been trading in a regime where autonomy headlines can overwhelm traditional auto metrics. MarketWatch’s reporting today reflects that shift in what “matters most” to TSLA bulls. [24]
If you see:
- additional reported testing milestones,
- regulatory developments,
- credible third-party validation (or skepticism),
…it can quickly become the dominant driver.
4) Watch the tape for “holiday distortions”
With markets closed Thursday and reopening Friday, expect:
- Potentially sharp premarket moves on relatively small news
- Lower-than-normal liquidity early Friday
- Faster reversals (up or down)
This is especially true for high-volume retail/fund-trading names like Tesla.
5) Know the “valuation friction” points
Even Tesla-friendly coverage acknowledges how much optimism is embedded.
Google Finance shows a P/E ratio over 300 at today’s pricing, highlighting why valuation becomes a recurring battleground whenever negative headlines hit. [25]
Meanwhile, analysts’ one-year targets clustering below the current price create a structural tension: it doesn’t automatically cap the stock, but it can make the rally feel more “narrative-dependent.” [26]
Bottom line for TSLA into the next open
Tesla stock is ending Dec. 24 with only a mild after-hours dip near $485, but today’s news flow reinforces the key setup for the next session:
- Headline risk is real: the NHTSA door-release probe is the kind of story that can escalate quickly if more incidents or details emerge. [27]
- Q4 deliveries remain a looming catalyst, but the market’s reaction may increasingly depend on whether the autonomy/robotaxi narrative stays hot. [28]
- $500 remains the next obvious “line in the sand”, with TSLA’s recent highs close enough that a single strong catalyst—or a relief rally in risk assets—could put that level back in play. [29]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.google.com, 2. www.google.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.thestreet.com, 6. www.google.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investors.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.google.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.barrons.com
