NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:23 ET
- Baird reiterated a $548 Tesla price target and said 2026 catalysts hinge on robotaxi progress and regulatory steps.
- Tesla has posted analyst delivery estimates that point to only a modest rebound in 2026 after a weaker 2025.
- China’s BYD is expanding abroad and is set to overtake Tesla in annual EV sales, sharpening competitive pressure.
Baird maintained a $548 price target on Tesla (TSLA.O) heading into 2026 and said robotaxi-related updates are likely to be the year’s key stock drivers. Analyst Ben Kallo said his team wants to “own TSLA into the new year,” pointing to potential announcements on robotaxi service, approvals in China and the European Union, and updates on Optimus and the Tesla Semi. Baird said its target is tied to long-dated EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — discounted back to year-end 2026. 1
The call lands as Tesla has taken the unusual step of posting sell-side delivery forecasts on its investor website, effectively setting a public benchmark for its next growth phase. Those estimates point to about 1.64 million vehicle deliveries in 2025, down from 1.79 million in 2024, before a modest rise to roughly 1.75 million in 2026. 2
That matters because the stock’s narrative has shifted from car volumes to autonomy and new revenue streams, leaving investors focused on proof points rather than just quarterly units. China’s BYD said its EV sales rose to 2.26 million in 2025 and Reuters reported it is poised to outsell Tesla in annual EV sales for the first time, while targeting up to 1.6 million cars sold outside China in 2026. Reuters also noted that Musk has pivoted away from an affordable $25,000 EV plan to focus on AI and robotaxi development. 3
Tesla shares were last down about 1% at $449.72. With the market closed for the U.S. holiday, the next clear catalyst is expected to come from company updates rather than macro trading flows.
The 2026 forecast for TSLA will turn on a familiar question: can Tesla convert ambitious autonomy plans into measurable rollout milestones. Robotaxi, shorthand for a driverless ride-hailing service, is the program investors see as most capable of moving the earnings trajectory.
A second focus is software. Full Self-Driving, or FSD, is Tesla’s branded driver-assistance package; investors track whether it can expand in capability and adoption without drawing regulatory pushback.
Robotics sits alongside that bet. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot project, remains early-stage, but any shift from prototypes to scaled production would be closely watched.
Valuation is where the disagreement lives. When analysts build targets from models several years out, the stock can move hard on updates that change timelines by quarters, not years.
Tesla’s published delivery consensus points to a slower recovery path through 2026, putting more emphasis on non-vehicle revenue to sustain momentum. That includes software, services and energy, all areas investors will weigh against a softer growth profile in core auto volumes.
Competition adds another layer of sensitivity. If rivals expand faster at lower price points, Tesla can face a trade-off between protecting market share and protecting margins.
Regulation will also set the pace. Investors are watching for signals in major markets on advanced driver-assistance features, data rules and the conditions under which broader autonomous functionality might be allowed.
A strong year for TSLA in 2026 may still require more than announcements. For shareholders, the key is whether Tesla can show that product timelines, approvals and monetization are moving from narrative to repeatable execution.
