Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock surged on December 15, 2025 as investors latched onto a fresh signal that Tesla’s autonomy roadmap is moving from “promise” to “prototype in public.” Shares climbed roughly 4% in Monday trading, changing hands around $478.87 (up about $19.91 on the day), after CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is testing robotaxis without a front-seat safety monitor. [1]
The rally pushed TSLA toward levels not seen in months and within striking distance of last year’s record zone. Reuters reported the stock rose as much as 4.9% to $481.37, while noting Tesla’s prior record high of $488.54 (Dec. 18, 2024). [2]
Under the hood, today’s Tesla-stock story is the same high-voltage equation Wall Street has been solving (and re-solving) for years:
- EV fundamentals still pay most of the bills.
- Autonomy and robotics are increasingly what the market is paying for. [3]
Below is what’s driving TSLA right now, what analysts are forecasting into 2026, and the risks that could snap the narrative back to earth.
Why Tesla Stock Is Moving Today: “No Safety Monitor” Robotaxi Tests
The immediate catalyst is simple: Musk said Tesla is testing robotaxis without a safety monitor in the front passenger seat—and he added that testing is underway with no occupants in the car. [4]
That matters because Tesla’s autonomy plans have historically been criticized for living too long in the realm of demos, timelines, and “soon.” A shift from supervised testing to unsupervised testing—even if limited—signals a higher-confidence phase in the product lifecycle.
Reuters also tied the moment directly to Tesla’s broader strategy:
- Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin earlier in 2025 using modified Model Y vehicles with Full Self-Driving (FSD), geo-fenced routes, and a human safety monitor. [5]
- Investors are betting Tesla will intensify testing as it prepares for the Cybercab (Tesla’s purpose-built autonomous vehicle) expected to enter the story in 2026. [6]
Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein told Reuters the news aligns with expectations Tesla is making progress consistent with what management had indicated previously—and markets “cheered” that progress. [7]
The Big Reality Check: Waymo Is Already Running a Large Robotaxi Business
The market can rally on autonomy progress, but it’s not happening in a vacuum. Tesla’s most direct benchmark is Waymo (Alphabet), which has a meaningful commercial lead in paid autonomous rides.
Reuters cited Waymo operating more than 2,500 commercial robotaxis across major U.S. cities (as of November), and referenced reporting that Waymo is delivering roughly 450,000 paid rides per week. [8]
That competitive gap is why today’s TSLA move is more than a headline—it’s a credibility test. If Tesla can’t scale reliability, coverage, and regulatory acceptance, “robotaxi optionality” remains just that: optional.
Tesla FSD Version 14: Progress, Yes—But “Unsupervised” Is Still the Boss Level
A major supporting storyline on December 15 is the accelerating drumbeat around Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
What recent testing and trackers are saying
Barron’s reported that FSD version 14 feels meaningfully improved—smoother driving, better behavior in a wider range of scenarios, and features like parking at Superchargers. Barron’s also cited data from the crowdsourced teslafsdtracker.com indicating FSD 14.1.7 averages over 9,000 miles between critical disengagements (based on that tracker’s dataset). [9]
At the same time, Investors Business Daily highlighted how performance metrics can vary by version, dataset, and definition—citing a figure of roughly 534 miles per critical disengagement for FSD v14.2.1 in urban settings, and emphasizing that this is still not enough to declare full autonomy. [10]
The key takeaway for TSLA stock
Investors aren’t just buying “better driver assist.” They’re buying the possibility that Tesla can convert autonomy into:
- a scaled robotaxi network,
- high-margin software revenue,
- and eventually a new profit engine that dwarfs car sales.
But the tension is that even impressive supervised performance does not automatically translate into a system regulators and the public will accept as unsupervised at scale.
EV Demand Still Matters—Even If the Stock Trades Like an AI Company
Reuters’ December 15 robotaxi story underscored a crucial point: despite the autonomy narrative, the bulk of Tesla’s revenue and profit still comes from selling electric vehicles. [11]
And EV demand has been choppy.
U.S. sales signal: November slump
Just days before today’s robotaxi-driven rally, Reuters reported that Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year-over-year in November to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest since January 2022, based on Cox Automotive estimates shared with Reuters. [12]
The report noted that Tesla introduced cheaper “Standard” variants, but demand was not strong enough to lift total sales, and the cheaper trims appeared to cannibalize higher-priced models. Reuters also connected the demand softness to the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit in September and intensifying competition. [13]
This is the paradox TSLA investors are living with:
- Near-term EV softness can pressure fundamentals.
- Autonomy progress can overwhelm that pressure in the stock—especially when the market believes autonomy is nearing a step change.
Q4 Deliveries Forecasts: A Wide Range That Could Whipsaw Expectations
Tesla’s next major fundamentals catalyst is still the most old-school metric in the Tesla universe: vehicle deliveries.
Recent reporting shows analysts don’t have a tight consensus for Q4:
- FactSet estimate: ~450,000 deliveries (about 9% below the prior year quarter). [14]
- Bloomberg estimate: ~448,000 (about 10% down). [15]
- Independent tracker Troy Teslike: around 406,000 (a sharper decline). [16]
That’s not just a forecasting detail—it’s a sign the market is trying to price Tesla as two companies at once:
- a global EV manufacturer facing demand/competition cycles, and
- an autonomy platform where deliveries are increasingly treated like a side quest.
Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets: TSLA Remains a Wall Street Food Fight
Tesla is still one of the most polarized mega-caps.
Barron’s reported that only about 40% of analysts rate Tesla a Buy, below the S&P 500 average cited in the piece, and that published price targets span a wide band from roughly $120 to $600—a spread that screams uncertainty about how (and when) autonomy monetizes. [17]
The bull case: $600 price targets and a $2T narrative
Barron’s highlighted Wedbush analyst Dan Ives as a prominent bull with a $600 price target, implying a valuation case approaching $2 trillion if autonomy and AI initiatives break through in 2026. [18]
The “priced-in” caution: Morgan Stanley steps back
On December 8, 2025, Business Insider reported that Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight on valuation concerns, while nudging its price target up to $425. The report also said Morgan Stanley cut its 2026 volume expectations and flagged volatility risk. [19]
A useful reference point: today’s consensus snapshot
MarketWatch’s analyst-estimates page showed a high target of $600, median around $450, and low around $120 (with an average near $399 in the snippet). [20]
The story in one line: even the “middle-of-the-road” targets imply limited upside from today’s price—unless autonomy success forces the entire model to be rewritten.
Institutional Flows: Cathie Wood Trims—But Tesla Still Dominates ARK Portfolios
Another widely read data point on December 15: ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood sold additional Tesla shares.
Barron’s reported ARK sold TSLA in two ETFs (including ARKK), but framed it as portfolio management rather than a bearish reversal—Tesla remains a top holding. The same Barron’s piece noted ARK’s very aggressive long-term view, citing a $2,600 price target by 2029, far above mainstream Wall Street targets. [21]
For TSLA traders, this type of flow is less about “Cathie is in/out” and more about how crowded the Tesla trade can become—forcing periodic rebalancing even among believers.
Governance and the Musk Premium: Tesla Board Pay Scrutiny Returns to the Spotlight
Tesla’s valuation is famously tied to big technological bets—but governance still matters, especially when a company is priced for near-perfection.
On December 15, Reuters published an in-depth look at Tesla director compensation, reporting that Tesla’s board has earned more than $3 billion through stock awards over time—far above director pay outcomes at other large U.S. tech peers. Reuters cited an Equilar analysis and noted Tesla suspended director compensation starting in 2021 as part of a settlement over allegations of excessive board pay. [22]
Reuters also reported governance experts arguing that unusually large compensation—particularly through stock options—can undermine board independence, especially amid legal fights over Elon Musk’s compensation arrangements. [23]
This matters for TSLA stock because Tesla trades with a “founder premium,” and governance headlines can either reinforce confidence (alignment with shareholders) or trigger a “risk re-rating” (independence and oversight concerns).
What to Watch Next: The Catalysts That Could Define TSLA Into 2026
If Tesla stock is going to keep trading near record territory, investors will likely demand evidence in a few specific buckets:
- Robotaxi testing scale and transparency
More geographies, more vehicles, clearer safety protocols, and clearer regulatory posture will matter more than viral clips. Reuters described the market as cheering tangible testing progress—now the bar rises. [24] - FSD reliability metrics that regulators can respect
Crowdsourced trackers and journalist test drives can move sentiment, but unsupervised deployment ultimately requires confidence beyond enthusiast datasets. [25] - Q4 deliveries and margins
A deliveries miss could revive the “EV business is slowing” narrative, while a surprise beat could buy Tesla time as autonomy ramps. [26] - Cybercab timeline and execution
With production expectations discussed for 2026, any concrete milestones (manufacturing readiness, cost targets, regulatory progress) could swing expectations sharply. [27] - Governance and legal overhangs
Reuters’ board-pay reporting is a reminder that governance risk can re-enter the TSLA story fast—especially when compensation and independence are front-page issues. [28]
Bottom Line
Tesla stock’s December 15 jump is a clean illustration of what TSLA has become in the market’s imagination: an EV company whose share price is increasingly dominated by autonomy milestones.
Today’s move followed Musk’s confirmation of driverless robotaxi testing without a safety monitor, a development investors have been waiting to see migrate from aspiration to observable reality. [29]
But Tesla remains a high-stakes split-screen story:
- Autonomy optimism is pulling TSLA toward record levels.
- EV demand softness and wide-ranging delivery forecasts keep fundamental uncertainty alive. [30]
- Analyst targets spanning roughly $120 to $600 show just how unresolved the 2026 debate still is. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.investors.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.businessinsider.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.barrons.com
