NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 09:29 ET — Market closed
- Tesla shares last closed down 1.0% as U.S. markets shut for New Year’s Day
- Investors are bracing for Tesla’s quarterly deliveries update expected Friday
- A Baird analyst reiterated an Outperform view, pointing to robotaxi and Optimus milestones in 2026
Tesla shares ended the year’s final trading session lower, with investors focused on an imminent deliveries update after the EV maker published a downbeat, company-compiled analyst forecast.
That matters now because Tesla’s deliveries — vehicles handed over to customers — are the market’s quickest read on demand, pricing pressure and factory output. Any miss can reset expectations ahead of the company’s quarterly results and 2026 outlook.
It also comes as investors weigh how much of Tesla’s valuation rests on autonomy and robotics ambitions versus its core car business, which still supplies most of the company’s revenue.
Tesla shares last closed at $449.72 on Wednesday, down 1.0%. U.S. stock markets are closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day.
Tesla on Monday posted a “delivery consensus” — an average of sell-side analyst estimates — on its investor relations website, showing expectations for 422,850 fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries and 1,640,752 deliveries for 2025. Tesla said it does not endorse analysts’ estimates. 1
Analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect fourth-quarter deliveries of 432,810 vehicles, while Tesla’s own compilation points to a steeper year-on-year decline, a Reuters report said. The same report said the loss of U.S. tax credits late last year and intensifying competition have weighed on demand, even after Tesla launched lower-priced “Standard” variants of its Model 3 and Model Y. 2
Pressure in China and Europe remains a key investor focus as rivals expand abroad. China’s BYD is poised to outsell Tesla in annual battery-electric vehicle sales for the first time, Reuters reported, underscoring the competitive squeeze as the year turns. 3
Baird analyst Ben Kallo wrote that the firm wants to “own TSLA into the new year” and still views it as “a core holding,” while flagging robotaxi-related announcements and Optimus updates as potential catalysts. Baird maintained an Outperform rating and a $548 price target, and said it expects paid robotaxi service beginning in 2027 and first commercial Optimus sales in late 2027. 4
The broader tape offered little help into year-end, with Wall Street’s main indexes slipping in the final session amid light holiday trading, according to Reuters. 5
Before the next session, the key test is Friday’s production and delivery print. Traders will benchmark it against Tesla’s 422,850 consensus figure and look for signs that incentives and mix shifts are stabilizing demand.
A beat would ease near-term pressure on the stock’s “demand” narrative. A miss would likely revive concerns about pricing and margins heading into the first full week of 2026.
After deliveries, investor attention is likely to snap back to what Tesla says — or does not say — about autonomy rollout, regulatory progress in major markets, and the pace of growth in energy storage deployments.
