NEW YORK, March 13, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
- Tesla shares gained around 0.6% to $397.41 early Friday, bumping the company’s market value to about $1.43 trillion.
- Tesla Energy Ventures has secured approval to operate as a UK electricity supplier, giving the company a fresh entry point into British households, beyond just vehicles.
- Analysts are projecting about $5.19 billion in negative free cash flow for 2026, with deliveries expected to lag. Tesla, for its part, is sticking with over $20 billion in planned capital spending.
Tesla gained roughly 0.6% in early Friday trading in New York, climbing to $397.41 as traders balanced news of the UK giving the company a green light to sell electricity with concerns over weakening vehicle delivery prospects. The shares moved in line with broader U.S. stocks—Nasdaq inched higher by about 0.55%.
The split screen’s impossible to ignore. Tesla’s pitching itself as more than just a carmaker, yet analysts keep trimming their 2026 delivery forecasts and now anticipate negative free cash flow—that is, Tesla burning through more cash than it brings in—right as the company projects capital expenditures to blow past $20 billion this year.
Tesla Energy Ventures has cleared Ofgem’s approval process to become an electricity supplier, a review that kicked off last July. With this new licence, Tesla can now sell electricity directly to households and businesses across Great Britain, putting it in direct competition with Octopus Energy and British Gas. Tesla already holds a generation licence in the UK through another unit.
This comes at a good moment for Tesla. According to its annual filing, revenue from energy generation and storage climbed 27% to $12.77 billion in 2025. Total revenue, on the other hand, edged lower, falling to $94.83 billion from last year’s $97.69 billion.
Tesla wrapped up 2025 holding $44.06 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments, the company disclosed. Its filing also projected capital spending north of $20 billion for 2026, citing the need to fund AI programs, data centers, manufacturing, research, and to grow its retail, service and charging footprint.
The spending plan comes as Wall Street grows more wary. According to Visible Alpha, analysts have trimmed their 2026 delivery growth forecast to around 3.8%, down from 8.2% back in January. Meanwhile, LSEG figures point to a projected negative free cash flow of roughly $5.19 billion for 2026.
Seth Goldstein at Morningstar is calling for “a third straight year” of delivery declines at Tesla in 2026, pointing to softness in two out of the company’s top three markets. Over at AutoForecast Solutions, Sam Fiorani notes that even with cheaper Model 3 and Model Y options, Tesla hasn’t managed to counter the loss of U.S. EV tax credits or increasing pressure from competitors like BYD. Reuters
Tesla’s numbers in Britain aren’t looking great. Vehicle sales slid 8.9% in 2025, according to SMMT, with February UK sales down 37% year-on-year as BYD and other Chinese automakers gain more ground.
There’s a chance the energy segment keeps expanding, but can’t pick up the slack if vehicle sales keep dropping. More trouble: if deliveries slip further, and self-driving or robotaxi efforts underwhelm, the shares could take a bigger hit. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, for one, warns that heavier cash burn may drag down both the stock and Tesla’s valuation.
Some investors aren’t rushing for the exits just yet. Gene Munster at Deepwater Asset Management called “zero growth a win,” as long as deliveries don’t slip further. Even after Friday’s bounce, Tesla shares had lost more than 20% since their Dec. 22 high and closed Tuesday with a market cap still near $1.43 trillion. Reuters
