New York, January 30, 2026, 10:53 EST — Regular session
- Tesla (TSLA.O) shares climbed Friday following a choppy session after earnings were released
- Investors are weighing a steep jump in spending linked to Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus robotics
- Traders are eyeing any concrete rollout milestones and keeping tabs on potential chatter about a SpaceX deal resurfacing
Tesla shares climbed 4.2% to $434.06 Friday morning, recovering from a 3.5% slide the previous day. Investors are weighing Tesla’s increased spending plans amid broader market jitters over costly AI investments. 1
The rebound highlights where Tesla’s stock currently lives: not tied to car deliveries, but on the gamble that CEO Elon Musk can make self-driving and robotics the next big profit driver.
This week, Tesla is ramping up its “tech-like” spending just as Wall Street grows tougher on cash burn. Any slip in timing or a weak regulatory signal could quickly weigh on the stock.
Tesla is set to more than double its capital expenditures to over $20 billion this year, CFO Vaibhav Taneja told analysts. The bulk of the spending will target production lines for the Cybercab autonomous vehicle, Optimus humanoid robots, the Semi truck, and new battery and lithium capacity. CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will stop making the Model S and Model X, freeing up California factory space for robot production. Taneja also revealed the company holds over $44 billion in cash and investments and could tap more debt or other sources to fund projects. Zacks strategist Andrew Rocco described the $20 billion as “necessary spending,” while REX Financial COO Scott Acheychek emphasized the “business model transition now underway” as the real story. Tesla, which recently lost the global EV sales lead to China’s BYD, is ramping up spending alongside tech giants Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet. 2
Tesla announced a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s AI firm, xAI, and confirmed Cybercab production is still set to begin this year. The company posted adjusted Q4 earnings of 50 cents per share, beating estimates of 45 cents. However, net income dropped 61% to $840 million, and projected 2025 revenue eased about 3% to $94.83 billion. Energy generation and storage revenue surged 25.5% to a record $3.84 billion. Automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits — which come from selling emissions credits to other automakers — climbed to 17.9%. Thomas Monteiro, senior analyst at Investing.com, noted Tesla is “entering a transition phase” where “rollout metrics – not deliveries -” are key, given mounting competition and the expiration of a U.S. tax incentive. 3
Late Thursday, deal chatter took an unexpected turn. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX has explored a potential merger with Tesla, as well as an alternative deal with xAI, citing sources familiar with the discussions. According to the report, some investors are pushing for a tie-up, which could attract interest from infrastructure funds and Middle Eastern sovereign investors. Tesla and SpaceX declined to comment. 4
Still, the pivot isn’t without risks. Tesla is pushing investors to value ventures that haven’t yet proven themselves at scale, even as costs climb and regulatory green lights for unsupervised driving are far from guaranteed.
Investors are zeroing in on concrete, verifiable signals — factory spending, the schedule for Cybercab production, robot rollouts, and whether robotaxi growth moves beyond just talk. Funding remains under scrutiny as well, particularly if cash flow starts to squeeze.
Tesla posted a Form 10-K annual report and an 8-K filing on Jan. 28, according to a note on its investor-relations page. These documents could shed light on how Tesla is presenting the transition and revealing any related-party connections. 5
Traders are now zeroing in on a key date beyond Tesla: the Financial Times says SpaceX is considering a mid-June IPO, potentially pulling in up to $50 billion and valuing the company near $1.5 trillion. New details on the timeline—or any merger discussions—could ripple back into Tesla’s trading. 6
