Tesla Stock Today: Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Bet, FSD Push in Europe, and an AI Talent War

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is ending November with its stock trading like a high‑growth AI platform and its core car business acting like a company in trouble.

Shares closed on Friday, 28 November, at $430.17, up 0.84% on the day and about 8–9% higher over the past week, leaving the stock roughly 6–7% above where it started 2025 and around 12% below its 52‑week high near $488. ^[1] At today’s levels, Tesla’s market value sits just under $1.3 trillion, a valuation more typical of a mega‑cap software or AI leader than a carmaker. ^[2]

Behind that price are three big storylines dominating Tesla news on 29 November 2025:

A $1 trillion Elon Musk compensation package that ties his future wealth to radical growth in robotaxis, humanoid robots and profits. ^[3]
An aggressive Full Self‑Driving (FSD) and robotaxi rollout, especially in Europe and Austin, even as regulators hesitate. ^[4]
A brewing AI talent war, as a new startup, Sunday Robotics, pulls away key engineers from Tesla’s Optimus and Autopilot teams. ^[5]

All of this is happening while Tesla’s global vehicle sales slow, competition intensifies, and Cybertruck turns two years old under a cloud of disappointment. ^[6]

Stock and Valuation Snapshot: A Trillion‑Dollar Tug‑of‑War

On Friday, TSLA:

Closed at $430.17, up 0.84%.
Traded in a daily range around $426–$433.
Is up ~8.8% over the past week, but only about 6.5% year‑to‑date and ~29% over the last 12 months. ^[7]
Has a 52‑week range of $214.25–$488.54, underscoring how volatile the stock has been. ^[8]

According to Invezz, Tesla now trades near a $1.3 trillion market cap on a forward P/E multiple that towers over traditional automakers, despite slowing earnings growth. ^[9] Q3 2025 delivered record revenue, but profit margins continued to compress because of price cuts and rising costs. ^[10]

For investors, the question framed in today’s coverage is blunt:

How much of Tesla’s market value comes from its underlying business – and how much is a “Musk premium” that lives or dies on his long‑term vision? ^[11]

Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package: Huge Carrot, Huge Debate

Tesla shareholders have now approved a new CEO compensation plan that could, on paper, be worth up to $1 trillion if every milestone is hit. ^[12]

What Musk has to deliver

Motley Fool’s breakdown, echoed on Finviz, notes that Musk’s award is almost entirely composed of stock options tied to extremely ambitious goals over the next decade. Key targets include, in paraphrased form: ^[13]

Selling on the order of tens of millions of vehicles annually (around 20 million per year).
Deploying about 1 million robotaxis and selling around 1 million robots.
Reaching roughly 10 million FSD subscriptions.
Generating up to $400 billion in adjusted profit per year.
Lifting Tesla’s market cap to about $8.5 trillion, roughly six times today’s value.

If these milestones are reached, Musk’s stake could rise from about 13% to ~25% of Tesla, further cementing his control. ^[14]

Supporters argue the package:

Tightly aligns Musk’s incentives with long‑term shareholder value.
Helps ensure Musk does not walk away from Tesla at a pivotal moment in its AI and robotics push. ^[15]

Critics, including several U.S. pension funds and union‑linked investor groups, warn that: ^[16]

The award is too large, excessively dilutive and concentrates power in one individual.
Governance worries grow as Musk’s influence expands across Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and other ventures.
The package can pay out even without a dramatic increase in vehicle sales: Musk may qualify with average annual deliveries around 1.2 million cars, below 2024 levels, provided the stock price keeps climbing. ^[17]

For shareholders, Musk’s comp plan essentially formalizes what the stock already trades on: a giant, leveraged bet that Tesla becomes a dominant autonomy + robotics + AI platform, not just an EV manufacturer.

FSD and Robotaxis: Europe Tests, Austin Doubles, Spain Opens Its Roads

Europe: Ride‑alongs and regulatory chess

In the past 24–48 hours, Tesla’s European FSD push has accelerated on two fronts:

FSD ride‑alongs in Europe – Business Insider reports that Tesla will offer supervised Full Self‑Driving ride‑alongs in Germany, Italy and France starting next month. Passengers sit in the front seat while Tesla staff handle driving, showcasing how FSD can manage most scenarios under human supervision. ^[18]
Tesla is targeting regulatory approval via Dutch authority RDW as early as February 2026, but the regulator has publicly cautioned that this timeline is not guaranteed and even asked Tesla fans to stop lobbying them after a coordinated campaign. ^[19]

The European strategy reflects how critical FSD is to Tesla’s growth narrative. Internal Tesla staff have described EU approval as “mission critical,” while Musk has blamed “Kafkaesque” bureaucracy for delays. ^[20]

Spain: National‑scale testing

Fresh reporting from Teslarati today highlights that Spain has quietly become a key FSD testbed. Under Spain’s new ES‑AV framework, Tesla has: ^[21]

Approval to test 19 FSD‑equipped vehicles nationwide from 27 November 2025 to 26 November 2027.
Permission to run unlimited tests on any national route.
Reached Phase 3 of the ES‑AV program, which allows optional onboard safety operators and remote monitoring – an unusually permissive regime compared with many European countries.

If Spain remains friendly to automated driving, it could become one of Tesla’s first major European FSD beachheads, with data flowing back into Tesla’s AI training pipeline.

Austin and U.S. robotaxis: Fleet to “roughly double”

In the U.S., Tesla’s robotaxi story remains small in absolute numbers but big in symbolism. Reuters and Barron’s report that Musk has promised to roughly double the size of the robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas in December, following a rollout that began in June. ^[22]

Key details:

Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area are currently Tesla’s main robotaxi markets, still using safety monitors in each vehicle. ^[23]
Tesla recently secured a permit to operate ride‑hailing in Arizona, adding another foothold. ^[24]
Musk has floated targets of 8–10 metro areas by the end of 2025 and eventually serving about half of the U.S. population with robotaxi coverage, though current fleets are far below those aspirational numbers. ^[25]

At the same time, competitors like Waymo and Zoox are expanding their own driverless services. A widely shared 24/7 Wall St. analysis published Friday argues that Waymo’s broader geographic footprint, deeper financial backing from Alphabet and ability to partner with many automakers could undermine Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions if the company doesn’t execute quickly. ^[26]

Cybertruck at Two: MarketWatch Calls It a “Flop”

One of the most eyebrow‑raising headlines today is MarketWatch’s verdict that Tesla’s Cybertruck is “turning 2” and has been a big flop. ^[27]

While the full article is paywalled, the gist echoed across financial news aggregators is that:

The Cybertruck has not become a mainstream hit, with demand and resale values lagging expectations.
Production challenges, pricing changes and a crowded pickup market have dulled its initial hype.
Cybertruck’s underperformance reinforces the view that Tesla badly needs a fresh, mass‑market model beyond Model 3 and Model Y to reignite its core auto business. ^[28]

The narrative is increasingly that Tesla’s headline products are now FSD, robotaxis and Optimus, not necessarily its latest vehicle.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Record Revenue, Thinner Profits

Underlying all the stock and governance drama are Tesla’s Q3 2025 numbers, which paint a mixed picture: growth is real, but profitability is under pressure.

From Tesla’s own Q3 update and independent summaries: ^[29]

Revenue:
- Total Q3 2025 revenue reached $28.1 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year.
- Tesla delivered record vehicle shipments (~497,000 units, up 7% YoY) and record energy storage deployments (~12.5 GWh, up ~80% YoY).
Profitability:
- GAAP operating income fell about 40% YoY to $1.6 billion, translating to a 5.8% operating margin.
- Overall gross margin was roughly 18%, down from nearly 19.8% a year earlier and well below the ~25% level Tesla once enjoyed at peak profitability.
- Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was around 15.4%.
Balance sheet:
- Tesla ended the quarter with $41.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments and generated roughly $4.0 billion in free cash flow.

One bright spot: the energy generation and storage division posted about 44% revenue growth to roughly $3.4 billion, with margins above 30%, boosted by Megapack deployments – including deals with Musk’s AI venture xAI. ^[30]

The numbers support the core bull case: Tesla is becoming less a car company and more a vertically integrated energy + software + AI business. But they also highlight why skeptics question the valuation: margins are falling even before Tesla fully ramps capital‑intensive robotaxis and humanoid robots.

Sales Skid: Europe, China and the U.S. All Flash Warning Lights

A major Reuters deep‑dive this week underscores how tough Tesla’s core EV business has become: ^[31]

Europe:
- Tesla’s sales fell 48.5% year‑over‑year in October, even as EV sales across the region rose 26%.
- Year‑to‑date, Tesla’s European sales are down about 30%, while rivals including Volkswagen and BYD gain share.
- BYD sold 17,470 cars in Europe in October, more than double Tesla’s total, and VW’s EV sales through September reached 522,600 units, about three times Tesla’s volume.
- Analysts point to a flood of affordable Chinese and European EVs and Tesla’s limited mass‑market lineup (mostly Model 3 and Model Y) as main drivers.
China:
- Tesla’s deliveries in China fell 35.8% in October, with year‑to‑date sales down 8.4% through October.
- New competitors like Xiaomi are entering with aggressive pricing and fresh designs.
United States:
- U.S. sales surged 18% in September as buyers rushed to beat a federal EV tax‑credit deadline.
- But in October, U.S. sales dropped 24%, and executives across the industry expect a cooler EV market for some time.

Visible Alpha consensus now expects Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries to decline about 7% in 2025, following a 1% drop in 2024 – a stark contrast with Musk’s earlier guidance of 20–30% growth. ^[32]

This growing disconnect between sluggish EV demand and soaring long‑term expectations for robotaxis and AI is one of the main tensions behind today’s “how much is Tesla vs. how much is Elon?” debate. ^[33]

AI Talent War: Sunday Robotics Poaches Key Tesla Engineers

Another prominent story today is Tesla’s loss of high‑profile AI and robotics engineers to a small but ambitious startup called Sunday Robotics.

Business Insider and Electrek report that: ^[34]

Sunday Robotics, co‑founded by Stanford roboticists Tony Zhao and Cheng Chi, has raised about $35 million and come out of stealth with a home robot named Memo.
At least 10 former Tesla engineers – including veterans from the Autopilot and Optimus programs such as Nishant Desai, Nadeesha Amarasinghe and Perry Jia – have joined the startup.
Sunday is taking a different technical approach:
- Rather than a humanoid robot, Memo is a wheeled home robot focused on chores like folding laundry and loading dishwashers.
- The company gathered training data using a $200 “skill capture” glove, shipped to ordinary households to record millions of episodes of real‑world behavior – messy kitchens, pets, bad lighting – at a fraction of Tesla’s VR‑lab costs.

Tesla’s AI chief Ashok Elluswamy reportedly told staff in an internal all‑hands that 2026 will be the “hardest year” of their lives, given aggressive deadlines for Optimus and robotaxis — a sign of just how high the stakes have become. ^[35]

The talent outflow to Sunday, coming at the same time as Musk’s trillion‑dollar pay package and his claims that Optimus will “end poverty,” raises investor questions about whether Tesla can retain enough top‑tier AI talent to meet those goals. ^[36]

Market Mood: “Tesla Is Now About Self‑Driving Cars and Robots”

Jim Cramer’s comments, highlighted by Insider Monkey, capture where market psychology has shifted: if investors still valued Tesla purely as a car company, the stock would likely be down on the latest sales data out of China and Europe. Instead, he argues, Wall Street now trades Tesla mainly as a bet on Musk’s vision of self‑driving cars and robots. ^[37]

That perspective is echoed by:

Motley Fool, which says the $1 trillion pay package is bullish for shareholders if Musk hits his extreme AI and robotics targets – but warns that expectations are sky‑high and leave little room for disappointment. ^[38]
Invezz, which frames Tesla’s near‑$1.3 trillion valuation as a “riddle” pitting strained fundamentals against the Musk‑driven narrative premium. ^[39]
Analysts who see explosive demand for humanoid robots starting 2026, but argue that Tesla’s stock may not benefit proportionally, given fierce competition and a lack of near‑term Optimus revenues. ^[40]

Institutional Moves: Trimming, Adding and Rebalancing

Several institutional investors disclosed new Tesla positions this week, suggesting a mixed but still engaged buy‑side:

The New York State Common Retirement Fund trimmed its Tesla holdings by about 2%, to roughly 3.34 million shares, valued near $1.06 billion, making Tesla about 1.4% of its portfolio and its ninth‑largest position. ^[41]
Hedge fund Tsai Capital cut its stake by about 5.2% in Q3, ending the quarter with roughly 69,566 shares worth $22 million, though Tesla still accounts for over 16% of its portfolio and remains a top holding. ^[42]
West Family Investments, by contrast, increased its Tesla stake by more than 50% to 13,730 shares, now around 1.1% of its portfolio. ^[43]

These adjustments suggest that, while some institutions are taking profits or managing risk after the stock’s recovery, others are still willing to add exposure to Tesla’s long‑term AI and autonomy story.

What It All Means for Tesla Investors Right Now

As of 29 November 2025, Tesla’s story looks like this:

Stock: Up strongly this week, near all‑time highs, and valued like a premier AI platform. ^[44]
Business fundamentals:
- Record revenue and deliveries in Q3, a fast‑growing energy business and enormous cash reserves. ^[45]
- But also shrinking margins, slowing vehicle sales, and severe share losses in Europe and China. ^[46]
Catalysts:
- Musk’s $1 trillion pay package that binds his fortunes to robotaxis, Optimus and massive profit growth. ^[47]
- Rapid FSD expansion – free trials in North America, national testing in Spain, ride‑alongs in Germany, France and Italy, and a robotaxi fleet in Austin that’s set to double. ^[48]
Risks:
- Regulatory uncertainty over FSD in Europe and the U.S.
- Heightened competition from BYD, VW, Waymo and a wave of EV and robotics upstarts. ^[49]
- A visible brain drain in AI talent to Sunday Robotics and other robotics players. ^[50]

For current and prospective shareholders, Tesla remains high‑beta on Musk himself: if he delivers on robotaxis, FSD subscriptions and Optimus in anything like the quantities outlined in his pay package, today’s valuation could prove justified or even conservative. If timelines slip or regulators push back harder than expected, the “Musk premium” that’s powering TSLA’s $1.3 trillion riddle could unwind quickly.

As always, this article is informational only and not financial advice. Anyone considering Tesla stock should weigh both the extraordinary upside and the very real execution, regulatory and competitive risks.

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