Tesla Stock Today (TSLA): Michael Burry’s New Short, China Sales Jump and 2026 Robotaxi Bets

Tesla’s share price is back near the top of its 2025 range, even as one of Wall Street’s most famous bears renews his short and fresh data show deep regional divergences in demand. At the same time, bullish analysts are doubling down on a future built on robotaxis, humanoid robots and custom AI chips.

Below is a detailed look at Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) as of December 2, 2025 — including the latest news, forecasts and analysis that matter for investors watching the stock.

Tesla stock price and valuation snapshot

As of midday on December 2, 2025, Tesla trades around $430 per share, giving the company a market capitalisation of roughly $1.43 trillion. ^[1]

Key valuation and trading metrics:

Price: ~$430.14
52‑week range:$214.25 – $488.54
Market cap:$1.43 trillion
Trailing P/E: ~297x
Forward P/E: ~209x
Revenue (TTM):$95.6B; net income $5.1B ^[2]

From a pure numbers standpoint, Tesla still trades at a forward earnings multiple roughly 10x the S&P 500’s ~22x, a gap highlighted in today’s coverage of Michael Burry’s latest bearish call. ^[3]

The bear case: Michael Burry is short Tesla again

The headline story around TSLA today is that “Big Short” investor Michael Burry has opened a new bearish bet against Tesla and is publicly attacking the stock’s valuation.

In a fresh post on his Cassandra Unchained Substack, Burry calls Tesla “ridiculously overvalued” and focuses on two main points: ^[4]

Shareholder dilution
- Burry estimates Tesla dilutes shareholders by about 3.6% per year through stock‑based compensation and new share issuance.
- Tesla does not offset that dilution with share buybacks, unlike many large tech peers.
- He warns that Elon Musk’s newly approved pay package – theoretically worth up to $1 trillion over the next decade – could deepen that dilution if all milestones are met. ^[5]
Extreme valuation versus fundamentals
- Burry points out that Tesla trades at about 209x forward earnings, compared with an S&P 500 average near 22x. ^[6]
- He argues that, even after a volatile few years, Tesla’s valuation still assumes levels of growth more typical of a pure‑play AI software leader than an auto and energy manufacturer.

Burry has a long, rocky history with Tesla — he famously disclosed a huge short position in 2021 and later closed it without a decisive win. ^[7]

Market reaction this time has been relatively muted. Reports note Tesla was roughly flat on Monday and even ticked up about 1% in alternative after‑hours trading, suggesting many traders see Burry’s attack as “already in the price.” ^[8]

The bull case: robotaxis, FSD, Optimus and energy

While Burry hammers valuation, a very different narrative is coming from bullish Wall Street analysts who increasingly value Tesla as an AI and autonomy platform with an attached car and energy business.

Wall Street leaning into autonomy

Recent analyst notes cluster around a few themes: robotaxis, Full Self‑Driving (FSD), and the Optimus humanoid robot.

TD Cowen: After a 40‑mile ride in Tesla’s Austin robotaxi, the firm reaffirmed a $509 price target, highlighting that Tesla’s ride‑hailing service currently charges about $1.08 per mile, significantly undercutting both Waymo and Uber. ^[9]
Stifel recently lifted its target to $508, citing progress on FSD and an expanding robotaxi footprint. ^[10]
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has a $600 target, calling the robotaxi rollout the start of a “golden era of autonomy” that could add $1 trillion in market value over time. ^[11]
Piper Sandler re‑affirmed a $500 target, saying FSD v14 already appears to drive as well as – or better than – the average human in their testing, after a factory visit and live demo. ^[12]
Melius Research has gone further, labeling Tesla a “must own” name for investors who believe autonomy and robotics will unlock a multi‑trillion‑dollar market, arguing “hundreds of billions” in value could flow to Tesla as FSD and Optimus scale. ^[13]

FSD v14.2: toward “widespread” release

On the product side, FSD (Supervised) v14.2 is rolling out more broadly and appears to be a major technical step: ^[14]

A new vision encoder improves recognition of emergency vehicles, obstacles and even human gestures.
Tighter integration between navigation and the vision network lets the system handle detours and blocked roads more gracefully.
Owners and analysts report smoother handling of unprotected turns, lane changes and cut‑ins, with many saying it now drives better than average human drivers in many conditions.

Elon Musk has repeatedly tied wide release of FSD v14.x to Tesla’s near‑term growth story, suggesting version 14.2 is the build intended for “widespread use.”

Optimus and custom AI chips

Outside of cars, Tesla is pouring capital into its Optimus humanoid robot and a new generation of AI inference chips:

Tesla’s energy and storage arm now represents about 12.1% of company revenue and is growing over 27% year‑to‑date, making it one of Tesla’s fastest‑scaling segments. ^[15]
Musk says Tesla is close to finishing its AI5 chip, is already working on AI6, and wants to ship a new AI chip design every 12 months, while potentially building a “gigantic chip fab” to support long‑term autonomy ambitions. ^[16]
The company has also floated the idea of paying owners $100–$200 per month to let idle cars run AI inference jobs when parked, effectively turning the fleet into a distributed compute network. ^[17]

Bullish analysts treat these initiatives as real options: not fully valued in current earnings but capable of transforming Tesla’s profit profile if they succeed.

Fundamentals: slower auto growth, pressured margins, rising energy

For all the futuristic talk, Tesla is still an operating business that has to sell cars and batteries today — and the numbers there are more mixed.

Recent financial performance

According to aggregated financial data: ^[18]

2024 revenue: ~$97.7B, up less than 1% from 2023 – essentially flat growth after years of hyper‑expansion.
2024 earnings: ~$7.1B, down more than 50% year‑over‑year, reflecting heavy price cuts, rising costs and intense competition.
Q3 2025 revenue came in around $28.1B, up low double‑digits year‑over‑year, but net income fell sharply and margins remained well below their 2021–2022 peaks.

Wall Street consensus compiled by StockAnalysis now sees: ^[19]

2025 revenue roughly flat to slightly down versus 2024, followed by a return to double‑digit growth in 2026 (average analyst forecast ~13% revenue growth).
EPS dipping in 2025 (average around the mid‑$1 range) before recovering toward ~$2.1 in 2026, implying a meaningful margin rebound.

In short: growth has stalled in the core auto business, and earnings have compressed, but analysts expect a re‑acceleration if price cuts ease, robotaxis scale and the higher‑margin energy and software businesses grow.

Regional picture: China and Norway strength vs broader European slump

Fresh November data underline how uneven Tesla’s geographic performance has become.

China: Shanghai rebounds with 9.9% sales growth

In Tesla’s most important overseas production hub, China‑made Model 3 and Model Y sales rose 9.9% year‑on‑year in November, and were up 41% versus October, the steepest annual growth in 14 months. ^[20]

Key context:

The jump followed launches of longer‑range versions of Model 3 and Model Y and a six‑seat Model Y L tailored to local demand.
Despite this rebound, Tesla still faces fierce competition from Chinese EV makers like BYD, Geely, Leapmotor and newcomer Xiaomi, which recently blew past a 350,000‑vehicle annual sales target with its SU7 and YU7 models. ^[21]

Europe: registrations plunge in key markets

Across much of Europe, the story is starkly different:

November registrations fell more than 50% year‑on‑year in France and Sweden, 49% in Denmark, and over 40% in the Netherlands and Portugal. Spain saw a more modest 8.75% decline – but that happened while the broader Spanish electrified‑vehicle market almost doubled. ^[22]
A new study from Escalent finds that European consideration of Chinese car brands jumped 16 percentage points in 12 months, while one in three buyers now view Tesla as a “mainstream” rather than premium brand, eroding some of its early halo effect. ^[23]

Political and reputational factors are also biting. Reporting this year has tied Tesla’s sharp volume drops in Germany, Britain and parts of continental Europe to consumer backlash against Elon Musk’s polarising politics, especially his perceived closeness to far‑right parties. ^[24]

Norway: a rare bright spot

Norway is the big exception in Europe:

Tesla has already set a new all‑time annual sales record in Norway with one month left in 2025, capturing over 31% of the entire car market, according to registration data. ^[25]
Registrations in November nearly tripled year‑on‑year, as buyers rushed to lock in generous EV tax perks before they shrink in 2026 and disappear in 2027. ^[26]

Overall, Europe looks like a tug‑of‑war: exceptional strength in a few incentive‑heavy markets like Norway, offset by steep declines where competition is rising and brand perception has cooled.

Wall Street forecasts for TSLA: downside in the average, upside in the extremes

If you zoom out from individual notes and look at aggregate forecasts, you get a sense of just how polarising Tesla is on the Street.

Consensus targets and ratings

Across roughly 30 covering analysts, the consensus 12‑month price target sits around $384, implying about 10–11% downside from today’s ~$430 price. ^[27]
Yet the average rating is still “Buy”.
Distribution is unusually balanced: one recent roundup shows 13 Buys, 11 Holds and 10 Sells, essentially a three‑way split between bulls, fence‑sitters and outright bears. ^[28]

That’s echoed in deeper dives like 24/7 Wall St’s analysis, which:

Notes official analyst price targets stretch from a low near $19 to a high of $600, an enormous spread.
Puts the median Street target in the high‑$380s, again below the current price.
Calculates its own fair‑value target near $353, based on revenue climbing from about $112B in 2025 to nearly $300B by 2030, and EPS rising from ~$2.85 to ~$11.61 over that period. ^[29]

Revenue and EPS forecasts

StockAnalysis aggregates analyst models that suggest: ^[30]

Average 2025 revenue: ~$97.1B, roughly flat vs 2024 (–0.7%).
Average 2026 revenue: ~$109.8B, implying ~13% growth as price cuts ease and new lines scale.
EPS: consensus around $1.6 in 2025, rising to about $2.1 in 2026, with a wide gap between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

Taken literally, these forecasts say: Tesla is priced above the average Street target today, but analysts still expect decent top‑ and bottom‑line growth to resume after a digestion period.

Key debates driving Tesla’s valuation

Putting today’s news together, you can see a handful of core debates that are driving Tesla’s price action and wildly divergent valuations.

1. Is Tesla primarily an automaker or an AI company?

Bulls say Tesla’s value should be benchmarked against leading AI platforms, because the biggest upside is in FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and AI chips.
Bears like Burry argue that most current revenue and profits still come from selling cars, where growth is slowing and competition is surging, especially from Chinese rivals. ^[31]

The forward P/E above 200x is essentially the market’s vote — for now — that Tesla deserves a software/AI multiple, not an auto multiple.

2. Will robotaxis and FSD scale safely and profitably?

On the plus side, real‑world robotaxi pilots in Austin and other cities are winning over some skeptical analysts, who are now riding in driverless Teslas and coming away more bullish. ^[32]
Tesla’s camera‑only approach and integrated chip design give it a cost advantage that could make rides cheaper than personal car ownership in a best‑case scenario. ^[33]
But regulatory investigations, competitive pressure from Waymo, Zoox, Baidu, Pony.ai and others, and the technical difficulty of full autonomy mean timelines are still uncertain, and delays could weigh on sentiment. ^[34]

3. Can Tesla maintain its brand power in Europe and beyond?

Tesla’s sales collapse in key European markets and growing consumer interest in Chinese EVs challenge the idea that Tesla’s brand is unassailable. ^[35]
Norway’s record market share shows how quickly demand can ramp when incentives and public perception line up in Tesla’s favor. ^[36]

Investors have to decide whether Europe’s slump is a temporary political and product‑cycle issue, or the start of a structurally weaker position.

4. How dangerous is dilution?

Finally, there’s the “tragic algebra” of dilution that Burry emphasises:

Tesla’s heavy stock‑based pay and enormous CEO package mean share counts are likely to keep rising unless the company starts buying back stock.
At Tesla’s current valuation, bulls counter that issuing shares to fund high‑return AI and autonomy projects could still be value‑accretive, but this only holds if those projects actually deliver the growth implied in today’s price. ^[37]

What this means for investors

Nothing here is individual financial advice, but based on today’s news and forecasts, you can frame Tesla as follows:

Short‑term reality:
- Slowing auto growth, margin pressure, and real competitive threats in China and Europe.
- A stock already trading above the average 12‑month price target. ^[38]
Medium‑term opportunity:
- Potential re‑acceleration of revenue and EPS in 2026 if price cuts stabilise and energy/Software/FSD contributions grow. ^[39]
Long‑term wild card:
- If Tesla’s robotaxis, Optimus robots and AI chip strategy succeed anywhere near the bullish projections, today’s valuation might ultimately prove conservative.
- If they disappoint or regulators slow deployment, the current triple‑digit earnings multiple leaves very little room for error.

For anyone considering TSLA, the practical takeaway is that position sizing and risk management matter as much as your conviction level. The stock is likely to remain extremely volatile as these big questions get answered over the next few years.

References

Tesla Stock Today (TSLA): Michael Burry’s New Short, China Sales Jump and 2026 Robotaxi Bets – December 2, 2025