Tesla Stock Today: TSLA Slips in Premarket on December 11, 2025 as Delivery Fears Clash With Robotaxi Hype

Updated: December 11, 2025 – around 5:00 a.m. ET (premarket)

Premarket snapshot: TSLA edges lower after strong run

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is trading modestly lower in Thursday’s premarket session after another volatile week dominated by new delivery forecasts, a fresh analyst downgrade and mounting excitement around robotaxis and AI.

Wednesday close (Dec 10, 2025):
TSLA finished at $451.45, up 1.41% on the day, after trading between $443.61 and $456.88. ^[1]
Premarket (around 5:00–5:15 a.m. ET, Dec 11):
Multiple venues show Tesla trading in the mid‑$440s to high‑$440s, down roughly 0.7%–1.0% from Wednesday’s close:
- Public.com lists TSLA at about $447.6 as of 5:00 a.m. ET, ~0.85% below the prior close. ^[2]
- StockAnalysis shows $446.72 at 5:11 a.m. ET (−1.05%). ^[3]
- MarketBeat’s extended-hours quote is $448.36 at 5:17 a.m. ET (−0.78%). ^[4]
- Investing.com reports a last premarket price near $448.00, down about 0.76%. ^[5]

Taken together, Tesla stock is trading roughly 0.8% below yesterday’s close, around $447–448, as of early premarket trading.

Over the past year, TSLA has swung within a 52‑week range of roughly $214 to $489, putting today’s levels near the upper end of that band. ^[6] Despite a bruising 2025 for the EV sector, Barchart notes that Tesla shares are still up around 13% year‑to‑date, buoyed by optimism around AI, autonomy and robotics. ^[7]

1. The big story today: Q4 delivery outlooks cut as demand cools

The most immediate overhang on Tesla this morning is a series of fresh cuts to fourth‑quarter delivery forecasts, highlighting the hangover from expiring U.S. EV tax credits.

A new analysis on TipRanks, published in the early hours of December 11, says:

Tesla posted record sales in Q3 2025, helped by buyers rushing to capture the last round of the federal EV tax credit. ^[8]
With that incentive now gone, analysts expect a clear pullback in Q4:
- FactSet consensus: about 450,000 vehicles, a 9% decline. ^[9]
- Bloomberg consensus: 448,000 vehicles, down 10%. ^[10]
- Independent tracker Troy Teslike: around 406,000, implying an 18% drop, citing “weak lines at plants and soft demand.” ^[11]

The article warns that 2025 could be Tesla’s first year of falling unit sales in many years, even as the company tries to shift investor focus toward AI, robotics and energy. ^[12]

For traders watching the tape this morning, this softer delivery backdrop helps explain why TSLA is slightly in the red despite a strong rally in recent weeks and positive headlines around autonomy and charging.

2. Morgan Stanley’s downgrade: “Fair valuation” after AI repricing

Another key narrative today is the Morgan Stanley downgrade that is still reverberating through the market.

A detailed summary from InsiderMonkey, published December 11, notes that Morgan Stanley on December 8: ^[13]

Cut Tesla from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight”.
Raised its price target by $15 to $425 (from $410), but now sees the stock as roughly fairly valued.
Describes Tesla as a global leader in EVs, manufacturing, renewable energy and “real‑world AI”, but argues that high expectations around AI, robotaxis and humanoid robots have already pushed the share price close to fair value. ^[14]
Estimates the stock is trading near 30x projected 2030 EBITDA, with major non‑auto catalysts “priced” into current levels. ^[15]

Lead analyst Andrew Percoco says he would “wait for a better entry”, anticipating choppy trading and downside risk to current estimates. ^[16]

This downgrade aligns with a broader message from some strategists at Investing.com, who recently argued that Tesla’s AI‑driven upside now faces a tougher risk‑reward setup, because much of the autonomous/AI optimism is already reflected in the valuation. ^[17]

3. What Wall Street thinks: consensus is “Hold” with modest downside

Under the surface, Wall Street’s view on Tesla is sharply divided – but the average stance is cautiously neutral.

Analyst ratings and 12‑month targets

MarketBeat (44 analysts over the last 12 months)
- Consensus rating: “Hold”.
- Breakdown: 9 Sell, 14 Hold, 20 Buy, 1 Strong Buy. ^[18]
- Average 12‑month price target: $399.33 – about 11.6% below Wednesday’s close.
- Range of targets: $19.05 on the low end to $600 on the high end, implying enormous disagreement on Tesla’s true value. ^[19]
TipRanks (34 analysts)
- Consensus: also “Hold”.
- Ratings split: 12 Buy, 12 Hold, 10 Sell.
- Average target: $383.54, implying roughly 15% downside from current levels. ^[20]
Investing.com aggregated forecast
- Average 12‑month price target: around $393, with a high estimate of $600 and a low near $120. ^[21]
- Rating: “Neutral”, and estimates suggest about 13% downside versus recent trading prices. ^[22]

In other words, the median Wall Street view sees Tesla as fully valued to slightly overvalued, with upside contingent on flawless execution in new businesses like robotaxis, humanoid robotics and energy, rather than traditional car sales alone.

4. Long‑term forecasts: from near‑term downside to 2030 moonshots

While daily trading is focused on Q4 demand and tax‑credit hangovers, some recent model‑driven forecasts sketch out a much longer arc for TSLA.

A comprehensive December 4 forecast from 24/7 Wall St. models Tesla’s revenue and earnings out to 2030 and assigns a “fair value” path for the stock: ^[23]

Inputs:
- Revenue growing from about $112.1 billion in 2025 to $297.4 billion in 2030.
- Normalized EPS rising from $1.91 (2025) to $11.24 (2030).
Implied stock price path (approximate):
- 2025: $351.73 (−21% vs ~current levels)
- 2026: $461.73 (+3% upside)
- 2027: $556.71 (+25% upside)
- 2028: $837.58 (+88% upside)
- 2029: $980.46 (+120% upside)
- 2030: $1,116.86 (+150% upside)

A separate December 9 piece from the same outlet notes that the average 12‑month Wall Street target of about $352.99 implies roughly 20% downside from recent prices, even as many models project strong growth later in the decade. ^[24]

These are just scenario‑based forecasts, not guarantees, but they capture the current tension:

Short‑term, many models call for downside as valuation “normalizes”; long‑term, they still assume Tesla successfully monetizes autonomy, AI and energy – in which case current prices could look cheap in hindsight.

5. Autonomy, AI and robotaxis: Austin becomes the proving ground

The robotaxi story is front and center this week, and investors are watching Austin, Texas, as a critical testbed.

A December 11 analysis from Primary Ignition reports that Tesla is preparing to remove all human safety monitors from its Austin robotaxi fleet by the end of December. ^[25]

Key details:

Tesla’s Austin robotaxi service launched June 22, 2025 with human monitors in the passenger seat. ^[26]
At an xAI hackathon on December 9, Elon Musk said safety drivers will be gone within “about three weeks”, framing this as the last major milestone for 2025. ^[27]
Musk argued that unsupervised driving is “pretty much solved,” describing the next phase primarily as real‑world validation rather than a research challenge. ^[28]

Primary Ignition notes that Tesla’s premium valuation rests heavily on this autonomy story, and sees two possible outcomes: ^[29]

Smooth rollout, no major incidents: strengthens the case for Tesla’s AI/robotics premium and supports high multiples.
Accidents or regulatory backlash: could trigger tighter oversight and a sharp reassessment of the robotaxi opportunity – and of Tesla’s valuation.

Meanwhile, Teslarati highlights Musk’s growing confidence (and rivalry talk). In a December 10 article, Musk said robotaxi rival Waymo “never really had a chance,” pointing to Tesla’s ability to eventually enable self‑driving on every customer car via software updates, in contrast with Waymo’s more limited fleet. ^[30]

At the same time, a Barchart piece titled “An ‘EV Winter’ Is Coming for Tesla. Should You Sell TSLA Stock Now?” notes that investors have increasingly treated Tesla as an AI and robotics play, with shares up about 12.85% in 2025 despite earlier volatility – but warns that this AI “halo” could fade quickly if autonomy milestones disappoint. ^[31]

6. EV competition heats up: GM’s breakout year puts pressure on Tesla

Tesla’s challenges aren’t only about tax credits and valuations. The competitive landscape is shifting rapidly.

A widely shared analysis from Gulf News, published December 11 under the headline “Is Tesla cooked? GM delivers 144,668 EVs so far — 103% jump over 2024”, underscores how aggressively General Motors has scaled its EV business: ^[32]

GM has delivered 144,668 EVs through the first three quarters of 2025, already up 103% vs its full‑year 2024 total of 114,432. ^[33]
In Q3 alone, GM sold 66,501 EVs, led by the Chevrolet Equinox EV, now one of the most popular non‑Tesla EVs in the U.S. ^[34]
GM’s EV sales in China jumped 111% year‑on‑year in Q2 2025, while the article notes that Tesla’s EV volumes and profits have tumbled. ^[35]

GM’s growing lineup – from the relatively affordable Equinox EV (around $35,000) to ultra‑premium Cadillacs – is presented as a serious challenge to Tesla’s once‑dominant position, especially in mainstream segments where price and incentives drive decisions. ^[36]

When combined with the Q4 delivery cuts noted earlier, this adds to a picture in which Tesla must defend margin and share simultaneously, even while investing heavily in autonomy and AI.

7. Charging, software and ecosystem: small headlines, big signal

Beyond deliveries and competition, Tesla is rolling out incremental but strategically important ecosystem features – many of them hitting the wires over the last 24 hours.

Supercharger network: BMW becomes the 15th partner

Teslarati reports that BMW has become the 15th automaker granted access to Tesla’s Supercharger network in 2025, letting its EV owners tap into more than 25,000 Supercharger stalls across North America via adapters and the Tesla app. ^[37]

So far this year, Tesla has opened its network to brands including Audi, Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Mercedes‑Benz, Nissan, Volvo and others, taking another step toward making its North American Charging Standard (NACS) the de facto EV charging protocol. ^[38]

For Tesla’s stock story, the network:

Creates a recurring revenue stream from non‑Tesla drivers.
Reinforces Tesla’s role as critical infrastructure, not just a car maker – an important argument for AI/robotics‑style valuations.

“Charging Passport” and app upgrades

A new feature called “Tesla Charging Passport” rolled out in the Tesla app gives owners an end‑of‑year recap of their charging activity – including longest trips, favorite Superchargers, miles added and estimated fuel savings. ^[39]

According to Supercar Blondie’s coverage:

The feature maps out all the Supercharger sites a driver visited in 2025 and awards badges for “iconic” locations or special milestones. ^[40]
Tesla is offering lifetime free Supercharging (for as long as the vehicle is owned) to nine top users across three categories, including total energy charged and number of unique Supercharger sites visited. ^[41]

Separately, Teslarati notes that app version 4.51.5 introduces a Vehicle Locator feature that guides owners back to their cars with a directional arrow and distance readout – part of a broader Holiday Update with new quality‑of‑life functions. ^[42]

Individually small, these stories underscore Tesla’s software‑first approach and help deepen customer engagement, which can matter for brand strength and ecosystem stickiness over time.

Starlink‑ready roofs?

In a more futuristic twist, a Geo News report highlights a new Tesla roof patent using radio‑transparent materials designed to host overhead antenna modules. ^[43]

The patent, filed in May 2024 and published December 4, 2025, describes a “satellite communication component” integrated into the roof, enabling communication with satellite navigation systems and other external devices. ^[44]
While it does not explicitly mention Starlink or SpaceX, the design has fueled speculation that future Teslas could support built‑in Starlink satellite internet, tightening the synergy between Musk’s companies. ^[45]

For investors, this adds another potential long‑term lever to Tesla’s ecosystem narrative – though it remains at the patent/speculation stage today.

8. Musk’s broader empire: SpaceX IPO chatter and Tesla sentiment

Elon Musk’s other ventures are also in the headlines this morning, and they may indirectly influence how investors perceive Tesla.

Both Seeking Alpha and Teslarati recount how Musk responded to reporting by Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, effectively confirming that a SpaceX IPO is in the works, potentially as soon as 2026, although exact timing remains unclear. ^[46]

Key points from the coverage:

Recent reports suggest SpaceX could seek a valuation approaching $1.5 trillion, supported by the growth of Starlink and advances in its Starship program. ^[47]
Musk has said he wants to explore ways for Tesla shareholders to participate in a future SpaceX listing, though no concrete mechanism has been announced. ^[48]

While SpaceX is a separate company, this “Musk complex” narrative – spanning EVs, rockets, AI and satellite internet – often influences Tesla’s valuation, for better or worse, whenever fresh IPO chatter emerges.

9. Institutional flows: hedge funds shuffle their Tesla exposure

Two new SEC‑filing write‑ups on MarketBeat, both dated December 11, reveal how some institutional investors repositioned Tesla earlier this year: ^[49]

FAS Wealth Partners Inc.
- Increased its Tesla stake by 161.8% in Q2 2025, buying an additional 8,142 shares.
- Now holds 13,173 TSLA shares worth about $4.19 million at the time of the filing.
CIBC Asset Management Inc.
- Trimmed its Tesla position by 4.6% in Q2.
- Still owns 702,021 shares valued around $223 million, after selling 33,522 shares.

These mixed moves reinforce the idea that institutional opinion on Tesla is far from unanimous: some funds are adding aggressively, while others de‑risk around current levels.

10. What today’s premarket action is signaling

Put together, Tesla’s modest premarket dip around 0.8% appears to reflect a tug‑of‑war between:

Bearish/neutral forces
- Fresh Q4 delivery cuts and the fading boost from U.S. EV tax credits. ^[50]
- Rising competition from GM and other legacy automakers gaining traction in EVs. ^[51]
- A string of notes (Morgan Stanley, Investing.com, Barchart) arguing Tesla’s AI/robotics upside is at least partly priced in, leaving a tougher risk–reward setup. ^[52]
Bullish forces
- Imminent milestones in Austin’s robotaxi program and Musk’s confidence about unsupervised Full Self‑Driving. ^[53]
- Expansion of the Supercharger network as a quasi‑utility, now serving 15 major automakers. ^[54]
- Ecosystem features like Charging Passport, app upgrades and potential Starlink integration that deepen customer lock‑in and create optionality. ^[55]
- Long‑term models that still see substantial upside by 2030 if Tesla fully capitalizes on autonomy, AI and energy. ^[56]

With TSLA trading near the top of its 52‑week range and consensus price targets clustered below current levels, any news on Q4 deliveries, Austin robotaxi performance, or regulatory reactions could have an outsized impact on intraday moves.

Final note

All prices and estimates above reflect information available as of around 5:00–5:20 a.m. ET on December 11, 2025 and may change as premarket trading evolves and the cash session opens. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.