Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) heads into the post‑Christmas session with one of the most unusual “split screens” on Wall Street: softening EV demand signals on one side, and escalating optimism around robotaxis and AI on the other.
U.S. equities reopen Friday, December 26 (a full trading day), after an early close on Dec. 24 and the Christmas Day closure. [1]
Below is what matters most for TSLA before the opening bell on 26/12/2025—based on the freshest news flow, sell‑side delivery forecasts, and the regulatory developments that could move the stock as 2025 ends.
Where Tesla Stock Left Off Heading Into Dec. 26
Tesla shares last traded in the holiday‑shortened session on Wednesday, Dec. 24, finishing around $485.40—with investors still eyeing the psychologically important $500 level as year-end approaches. [2]
The timing matters because holiday liquidity can amplify moves—and Tesla is entering Friday’s session with several storylines hitting at once:
- Delivery expectations for Q4 are being trimmed by multiple analysts
- Robotaxi testing updates are feeding the “Tesla as an AI platform” narrative
- Regulators are tightening scrutiny of Autopilot/FSD marketing and safety incidents
The Core Near‑Term Catalyst: Q4 Deliveries (and Why Forecasts Are Sliding)
For Tesla stock, deliveries still set the tone—even in a market increasingly focused on autonomy and robotics.
Why analysts are dialing back Q4 delivery expectations
A cluster of forecasts now points to Q4 2025 deliveries coming in below consensus:
- New Street Research: 415,000–435,000 deliveries (vs. ~440,000 consensus cited by Investing.com)
- UBS (Joseph Spak): ~415,000, described as below Visible Alpha consensus
- Commentary points to a U.S. “air pocket” after demand was pulled forward ahead of incentive changes [3]
The bigger demand backdrop: tax credits ended, and the U.S. market cooled
Reuters reporting has repeatedly tied 2025’s demand wobble to the end of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit (reported as ending “at the end of September” under the Trump administration), which helped trigger pre‑expiry buying—and then a slump. [4]
One of the most telling recent data points: Tesla’s estimated U.S. sales fell ~23% year‑over‑year in November to 39,800 vehicles, according to Cox Automotive figures provided exclusively to Reuters—despite Tesla rolling out cheaper “Standard” variants meant to support volumes. [5]
Tesla also leaned on incentives: Reuters noted Tesla was advertising 0% financing on certain “Standard” Model Y offers during the holiday period—often read by the market as a sign demand needs help, even if seasonal promotions are normal. [6]
The key dates investors are circling
- Q4 deliveries: one widely cited expectation is early January, with some commentary pointing to January 2 for the delivery release. [7]
- Q4/FY2025 earnings: market calendars list Jan. 28, 2026 (after market close), though companies can still adjust dates. [8]
Why the Stock Can Hold Up Even If Deliveries Miss: Robotaxi Hype Is Doing Heavy Lifting
The most important “explain it in one line” theme for TSLA right now is this:
More investors appear willing to discount near‑term car weakness if robotaxi progress looks real.
That framing shows up in multiple places—including sell‑side commentary captured in delivery previews and broader market coverage. [9]
What’s new on the robotaxi front
Reuters has reported Tesla’s robotaxi program in Austin has moved beyond the earliest phase:
- Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin in June using modified Model Y vehicles and geofencing, with a human safety monitor in the front passenger seat.
- Reuters also reported Tesla is now testing vehicles with no occupants—a noteworthy step for the autonomy narrative even if it’s still controlled testing. [10]
Separately, Reuters’ broader look at global robotaxi deployments described Tesla pushing beyond Austin, including mention of pursuing regulatory pathways (such as permitting in Arizona) and scaling its ambitions into 2026. [11]
Why Wall Street keeps tying Tesla’s valuation to autonomy and robotics
Reuters has framed Tesla’s valuation as hinging heavily on Musk’s push into robotaxis and humanoid robots, even while vehicle sales remain the financial foundation that funds that transition. [12]
And Tesla itself has telegraphed a 2026 roadmap: Reuters reported Tesla said it was on track to start volume production in 2026 of products including the Cybercab robotaxi, Semi, and Megapack 3, while Optimus production was discussed as beginning toward the end of 2026. [13]
The Regulatory Overhang: California DMV and Federal Safety Probes Are Escalating
Tesla’s autonomy narrative is powerful—but it is also increasingly constrained by regulators focused on claims, branding, and crash risk.
California DMV: Autopilot marketing faces a clock
In one of the most market-relevant regulatory stories this month, Reuters reported California’s DMV:
- Adopted findings that Tesla’s marketing overstated or misled on self‑driving capability
- Ordered a 30‑day suspension of certain licenses, then stayed (paused) the sales suspension to give Tesla time to remedy the issue
- Reuters described a 90‑day stay on the sales license and an indefinite stay on the manufacturing license, with Tesla able to pursue review by Feb. 14 [14]
The DMV’s own public release provides additional specificity: it says Tesla has 60 days to take action regarding the term “autopilot,” and if it fails, it becomes subject to a 30‑day suspension of its dealer license, while the manufacturer-license suspension was permanently stayed. [15]
Why this matters for TSLA on Dec. 26: even if nothing changes overnight, investors are now pricing a defined regulatory timeline into the autonomy narrative—especially in California, Tesla’s biggest U.S. market.
NHTSA: Full Self‑Driving investigations remain a headline risk
Reuters has also reported on a major federal probe into Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving:
- NHTSA opened an investigation covering about 2.4–2.9 million vehicles (depending on the story’s timing and framing)
- The agency cited dozens of complaints and noted crash incidents tied to alleged FSD behavior such as running red lights or other driving errors [16]
And on Dec. 24, Reuters reported NHTSA opened a separate probe tied to Model 3 emergency door release concerns after reports it may not function as expected following a crash. [17]
Europe: consumer information scrutiny isn’t just a U.S. issue
Reuters also reported Italy’s competition authority closed probes involving Tesla and several automakers regarding alleged misleading information about EV range, battery degradation, and warranty limitations, after companies agreed to update consumer information and tools. [18]
The Demand Picture Outside the U.S.: Europe Weakness and Competition Pressure
If you’re looking for what could undercut Tesla’s “AI platform” valuation argument, it’s the possibility that core auto fundamentals stay weak longer than expected.
Reuters reported Tesla’s European sales were under pressure in 2025, noting sharp declines in some monthly snapshots and highlighting intensified competition—particularly from Chinese EV makers and established automakers scaling EV offerings. [19]
This matters because margin recovery becomes harder if Tesla has to keep leaning on pricing, financing, or incentives to maintain volume.
Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets: Huge Disagreement, One Common Theme
Tesla is a stock where the price-target spread is often as important as the average.
Morgan Stanley: downgrade on valuation
Multiple outlets reported Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight, largely on valuation and “already priced in” expectations, while still raising its price target to $425. [20]
Deutsche Bank: higher target, Buy maintained
Other commentary pointed the other way: Deutsche Bank reportedly raised its Tesla price target to $500 and maintained a Buy rating, reflecting continued confidence in Tesla’s longer‑term optionality (robotaxi/AI), even while near‑term deliveries are debated. [21]
New Street Research: Buy rating and $600 target
New Street Research’s own Tesla coverage page lists a Buy rating and $600 target price (as displayed publicly), reinforcing that some bullish frameworks remain anchored on autonomy upside. [22]
The “consensus” signal is still cautious
Even with high-profile bulls, aggregated targets remain notably lower than the current stock price in some snapshots. For example, Barron’s market data page showed an average target around the low $400s and a wide high/low range. [23]
What to take from this before Dec. 26: TSLA is trading like an “option on autonomy,” which increases sensitivity to any robotaxi proof points—but also increases downside risk if regulators or deliveries disappoint.
Governance and the Musk Factor: Pay Package Back in Focus
TSLA also carries a governance narrative that can influence sentiment—especially among institutional investors.
Reuters reported Delaware’s Supreme Court restored Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package—once worth $56 billion and described as now worth about $139 billion—after a lower court had voided it. [24]
Whether investors view that as stability (Musk aligned with Tesla) or risk (governance controversy), it’s part of the background noise into the Dec. 26 open.
What to Watch on Dec. 26 (A Practical Pre‑Market Checklist)
Here are the biggest “if this happens, TSLA could move” triggers heading into the open:
- Any new robotaxi disclosures
Especially anything that clarifies scope (geofenced testing vs. broader driverless operations), safety driver removal, or permitting progress. [25] - Fresh regulatory headlines (California DMV / NHTSA)
Tesla is now operating under explicit deadlines in California and ongoing federal scrutiny of driver-assistance behavior. [26] - Sell-side delivery estimate changes
If more firms converge toward the ~415k area for Q4 deliveries, the narrative could shift from “deliveries don’t matter” to “deliveries still matter when they miss by enough.” [27] - The $500 level and holiday liquidity
A low-volume session can exaggerate moves around round-number levels—and TSLA has been a headline stock into year-end. [28]
Bottom Line for Tesla Stock Before the Bell
Going into Friday, Dec. 26, Tesla stock is being pulled by two opposing forces:
- Bear case: demand softness post‑incentives, weaker U.S./Europe signals, and rising regulatory scrutiny that could slow or complicate autonomy rollout. [29]
- Bull case: robotaxi progress (especially anything “driverless”) and the perception that Tesla’s future value is more AI/robotics than autos—supporting premium valuation multiples. [30]
In the very near term, the market’s key question looks a lot like the one UBS’s Spak raised in delivery-preview commentary: Is the tape still trading deliveries, or is it trading robotaxi and Optimus first? [31]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. m.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. m.investing.com, 8. finance.yahoo.com, 9. m.investing.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.dmv.ca.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.gurufocus.com, 22. www.newstreetresearch.com, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. m.investing.com, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. m.investing.com
