Tesla stock heads into Monday’s US session with a familiar setup: strong share momentum and a sky-high valuation narrative tied to autonomy and robotics—colliding with fresh evidence of weakening demand in several core EV markets and heightened regulatory scrutiny around Full Self-Driving (FSD).
Below is what to know about TSLA before the US stock market opens on 15/12/2025, based on the most recent reporting, regulatory documents, and analyst commentary.
Tesla stock premarket setup: where TSLA closed and why it matters
Tesla shares last traded at $458.96, up 2.70% on the day, with an intraday range of roughly $441.87 to $462.72 and volume near 95.7 million shares. TSLA’s 52-week range stands at approximately $214.25 to $488.54, leaving the stock not far from its recent peak and positioning it for outsized moves on headlines.
The key point for Monday’s open: when a stock is trading near the upper end of its yearly range—and sentiment is anchored to ambitious “next chapter” expectations—incremental news (deliveries data, regulatory signals, and macro surprises) can have an amplified impact.
Demand is the near-term pressure point: US and Europe signals are flashing yellow
US: November sales drop despite cheaper trims
A Reuters report citing Cox Automotive estimates found Tesla’s US sales fell nearly 23% year over year in November to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest since January 2022, even after Tesla rolled out cheaper “Standard” versions of the Model Y and Model 3. The report also notes the $7,500 federal EV tax credit ended in late September, a change that has broadly pressured demand. [1]
Why it matters for TSLA: Tesla’s bull thesis increasingly leans on software, autonomy, and robotics, but the company’s current revenue base is still dominated by vehicle sales—and a soft demand tape can quickly raise questions about pricing power and margins.
Europe: registrations slump across multiple markets, with one notable exception
In Europe, Reuters highlighted sharp declines in November registrations across several countries and pointed to Tesla’s aging lineup and intensifying competition. The same report noted that Model Y sales fell across a range of markets (including steep drops in several countries) while Norway was a standout, where Model Y sales increased and registrations rose. [2]
At the same time, Reuters separately reported a bright spot: Tesla set an all-time single-automaker annual sales record in Norway through the end of November, helped by buyers rushing ahead of new EV taxes set to begin in January—underscoring how policy and incentives can still swing results market-by-market. [3]
Bottom line: the regional picture is mixed, but the broader European trend in late 2025 has been challenging enough that it is now a recurring part of the Tesla stock debate. [4]
Robotaxi and FSD are still the biggest TSLA catalyst—while regulatory risk rises
If Tesla stock has a “center of gravity” heading into 2026, it’s the question of whether Tesla can convert supervised driver assistance into a scalable autonomy business—without triggering a regulatory or safety backlash.
US: NHTSA investigation focuses on alleged traffic-safety violations while FSD is engaged
The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has an active preliminary evaluation into Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD. An NHTSA information request letter dated December 3, 2025 states the agency has received 62 complaints and identified additional reports related to alleged traffic safety violations while FSD is engaged, including scenarios involving traffic controls and lane behavior. [5]
NHTSA’s ODI resume for the probe lists an estimated population of 2,882,566 vehicles and summarizes incident reports including crashes and injuries (with no fatalities listed in the snapshot shown). [6]
This is a major “headline risk” factor for Monday and beyond: any indication the probe is escalating—or that Tesla is changing how it markets, gates, or deploys FSD features—can move the stock quickly.
Europe: a pathway to approvals, but not a blank check
Reuters reported that Dutch vehicle authority RDW expects to decide on Tesla’s FSD in February after Tesla demonstrates the system meets required standards. The agency also urged customers to stop contacting it and emphasized that approval is only possible once safety has been convincingly demonstrated. [7]
For investors, this matters because Tesla has framed a Netherlands pathway as a stepping stone for broader EU recognition—but regulators are clearly signaling they are not committing to a rubber-stamp process. [8]
China: Tesla is still talking up approval timelines
In the same Reuters report, CEO Elon Musk was cited as expecting FSD to be fully approved in China early next year, keeping China as a potential upside catalyst—but also a market where policy outcomes can change quickly. [9]
Recalls and quality headlines: a smaller issue, but still a sentiment input
Tesla has also dealt with a US recall tied to a battery pack component. NHTSA documentation describes a recall affecting 12,963 vehicles (certain 2025 Model 3 and 2026 Model Y) where a battery pack contactor may fail and cause a loss of drive power; owner letters were expected to be mailed December 9, 2025. [10]
Reuters previously reported Tesla identified warranty claims and field reports tied to this issue but said it was unaware of collisions, injuries, or fatalities linked to the defect at the time. [11]
Recalls are not unusual in autos, but for TSLA they can matter disproportionately because they can feed into broader narratives about manufacturing quality and oversight—especially when autonomy regulation is already in focus.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: Wall Street is split, and the valuation debate is getting louder
Morgan Stanley downgrade: “great company, demanding price”
One of the most market-moving recent calls came from Morgan Stanley, which downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight from Overweight, while nudging its price target up to $425. The reasoning: the stock price already reflects substantial optimism around AI, autonomy, and robotics—while near-term auto fundamentals look pressured. [12]
The downgrade drew attention partly because it also laid out a very wide scenario range—often a hallmark of Tesla coverage—including a bull case far above the market and a bear case far below it. [13]
Deutsche Bank bullish framing: Tesla as an AI/robotics story
At the other end of the spectrum, Deutsche Bank has positioned Tesla as a top pick in its auto outlook, with analyst Edison Yu maintaining a Buy rating and a $470 price target, emphasizing AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots rather than near-term EV unit growth. [14]
Bearish pushback: “Big Short” investor Michael Burry calls out valuation and dilution
Reuters reported Michael Burry criticized Tesla as “ridiculously overvalued,” pointing to share dilution and arguing Tesla traded around 209x forward earnings, far above the S&P 500’s forward multiple (as cited by LSEG-compiled data). [15]
Whether or not investors agree with Burry, the practical implication is real: when valuation becomes a central storyline, TSLA can start trading more like a “macro + sentiment” instrument than a company-specific earnings story—especially around major data releases.
Deliveries outlook: Q4 expectations are wide—and that uncertainty itself can move TSLA
The next major fundamental catalyst after monthly registration/sales reads is Tesla’s Q4 delivery report (typically early January). A recent roundup citing third-party estimates put FactSet around 450,000 and Bloomberg around 448,000 for Q4 deliveries, while one prominent tracker forecast a lower figure—illustrating how wide the range remains. [16]
This matters heading into Monday because the stock is already pricing in a future where autonomy/robotics can outweigh cyclicality in car demand. If Q4 expectations keep sliding into year-end, investors may pressure Tesla to show clearer evidence that software and services can scale fast enough to offset slower unit growth.
Macro events this week: why the economic calendar can hit Tesla harder than most stocks
Tesla often reacts sharply to interest-rate expectations because a meaningful portion of its valuation is tied to profits and cash flows projected far into the future.
Reuters’ “Wall Street Week Ahead” preview flagged a heavy slate of delayed US data releases (following a government shutdown), including:
- Jobs data due Tuesday
- CPI inflation data due Thursday
- Additional reports such as retail sales
It also noted the Fed recently cut interest rates by a quarter point but signaled borrowing costs may not drop further soon without clearer evidence on the economy and inflation. [17]
For TSLA holders, this is the macro setup to watch into and after Monday’s open:
- If inflation surprises higher or rates back up, high-multiple stocks can re-rate quickly.
- If jobs/inflation data reinforce a “soft landing with easing,” the market may continue rewarding long-duration growth stories—Tesla included.
What to watch specifically before (and right after) Monday’s open
Here’s a practical checklist for TSLA watchers heading into 15/12/2025:
1) Any weekend-to-Monday headlines on FSD regulation or safety
- NHTSA’s ongoing probe is active and well-defined, with documented complaint counts and scope. [18]
- Any new document drops, response deadlines, or enforcement language can move the stock fast—especially in premarket.
2) Fresh signs of demand stabilization—or further deterioration
- US and Europe data have been weak recently (with Norway as a notable bright spot). [19]
- Watch for new country registration releases, promotional changes, and commentary on whether lower-priced trims are expanding the buyer pool or cannibalizing higher-margin variants.
3) The “robotaxi timeline” narrative
- Tesla’s path to scaling robotaxis hinges on both technical progress and regulatory acceptance (EU and US dynamics are evolving). [20]
- Expect high sensitivity to any credible indicator of broader approvals, geographic expansion, or changes to safety monitoring.
4) Valuation-driven volatility
- Between the Morgan Stanley downgrade and high-profile criticism from Burry, valuation is now a front-page part of the TSLA story again. [21]
- In this environment, TSLA can swing on macro prints and peer sentiment in AI-heavy mega caps. [22]
The bottom line for Tesla stock on 15/12/2025
Going into Monday’s open, Tesla stock is being pulled by two competing forces:
- The bull case: Tesla is increasingly valued as an AI/autonomy/robotics platform, with analysts arguing robotaxis and humanoid robots can support upside even if near-term EV sales wobble. [23]
- The bear case: Recent sales and registration data suggest demand is under pressure, while regulators are taking a harder look at FSD-related behavior—at a time when the stock’s valuation leaves little room for execution missteps. [24]
For Monday specifically, the “watch items” are straightforward: regulatory headlines, demand reads, and the macro data calendar—all of which can influence Tesla’s multiple as much as (or more than) incremental company news.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. static.nhtsa.gov, 6. static.nhtsa.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. static.nhtsa.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.businessinsider.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. static.nhtsa.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.businessinsider.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. www.reuters.com
