Tesla Stock (TSLA) in December 2025: Robotaxis, EV Slowdown and Price Targets to 2030

Updated: December 11, 2025 – For information only, not investment advice.

Tesla stock today: price, performance and valuation

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is trading around $451 per share as of mid‑day on December 11, 2025, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $1.5 trillion. ^[1] That makes Tesla one of the ten most valuable listed companies in the world. ^[2]

Over the past six months, Tesla stock is up about 38%, and roughly 13% over the last year, according to 24/7 Wall St., which notes that TSLA has outperformed the S&P 500 over that period but lagged the tech‑heavy Nasdaq. ^[3]

Yet despite the trillion‑dollar valuation, Wall Street’s average 12‑month price target sits well below the current share price:

StockAnalysis.com calculates an average target of $389 from 28 analysts, with a median of $435 and a range from $19 to $600 per share – implying about 14% downside from current levels. ^[4]
24/7 Wall St. pegs the Street‑wide average target at $393.29, again below the latest close. ^[5]

The gap between today’s $451 share price and sub‑$400 average targets underscores how polarizing Tesla remains: bulls see a powerful AI and robotics platform, while skeptics question whether the underlying EV business can justify a $1.5T valuation.

1. What changed since November 21, 2025?

From November 21 onward, the Tesla story has been dominated by Full Self‑Driving (FSD) and robotaxis, set against weakening EV demand in key regions and a flurry of new analyst calls.

Key developments in that window include:

Regulatory green light in Arizona for robotaxis
Tesla obtained a Transportation Network Company (TNC) permit in Arizona on November 17, the final regulatory step needed to offer ride‑hailing service in the Phoenix area. ^[6]
Promise of fully driverless robotaxis in Austin “within weeks”
At an xAI hackathon and related events, Elon Musk said Tesla’s FSD in Austin is “pretty much solved” and that safety monitors will be removed from robotaxis in about three weeks, making them fully driverless, with plans to double the local robotaxi fleet to around 60 Model Ys and expand to Phoenix. ^[7]
FSD v14.1 / v14.2 and big gains in autonomy metrics
Piper Sandler highlighted data from an FSD Community Tracker suggesting that miles driven between “critical interventions” jumped from about 441 to over 9,200 after the rollout of FSD v14.1 – the largest improvement in four years – and reiterated an Overweight rating and $500 price target on TSLA. ^[8]
Morgan Stanley’s new analyst reshapes the debate
Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage, cut the rating from Overweight to Equal Weight, but raised the target from $410 to $425. He called FSD “the crown jewel” of Tesla’s auto business and estimated the Optimus humanoid robot alone could be worth about $60 per share, while warning that high expectations could make the next 12 months “choppy” for TSLA. ^[9]
Deutsche Bank names Tesla its top car pick for 2026
In a note summarized by Barron’s, Deutsche Bank argued Tesla’s value is increasingly driven by computing, robotics and robo‑taxis rather than car sales, assigning a $470 target price and splitting its valuation between cars, energy, robotaxis and humanoid robots. ^[10]
Algorithmic and long‑term forecasts add more spread
Quant site CoinCodex projects a short‑term pullback to around $415.71 by December 13 (about ‑6.6% from current levels). ^[11]
At the other extreme, 24/7 Wall St. models Tesla’s revenue rising from $112 billion in 2025 to $297 billion by 2030, with normalized EPS climbing from $1.91 to $11.24 and a 2030 price target of $1,116.86 per share. ^[12]

At the same time, a string of data points shows that Tesla’s EV business is under pressure in multiple regions even as FSD headlines push the stock higher.

2. Robotaxis and FSD: the AI story driving Tesla’s valuation

Arizona & Texas: from supervised to driverless

Tesla’s Arizona TNC permit allows the company to operate as a commercial vehicle‑for‑hire company—similar to Uber or Lyft—across the state, initially expected to operate with safety drivers. ^[13]

Musk now says that in Austin, Texas, Tesla will remove safety monitors from the front seat within weeks, effectively shifting to fully driverless robotaxis on selected routes. ^[14] Local reporting notes that Tesla’s Austin robotaxi fleet may grow to about 60 vehicles, far below Musk’s earlier aspiration of 500 in Austin and 1,000 in the Bay Area by year‑end, but still a significant step toward scaling the model. ^[15]

Safety questions remain: since launching its robotaxi service in June, Tesla has reported seven crashes in Austin, compared with nine for Alphabet’s Waymo, which operates a larger fully driverless fleet in the city. ^[16] Regulators will be watching closely as Tesla transitions from “supervised” to unsupervised operation.

FSD v14, v14.2 and the “last big piece of the puzzle”

On the software side, Tesla has been rapidly iterating:

FSD v14.1 and v14.2 have delivered big gains in smoothness and decision‑making, according to Teslarati and Wall Street analysts, including new “Arrival Options” that let drivers pre‑select parking types and more relaxed driver‑monitoring in v14.2.1. ^[17]
Musk and Teslarati both describe an upcoming FSD model—expected in January or February 2026—that is “an order of magnitude larger” and may represent “the last big piece of the puzzle” before truly unsupervised driving at scale. ^[18]

In Europe, Tesla has expanded FSD ride‑along programs while working with the Dutch regulator RDW to secure approval that could eventually allow owners to purchase or subscribe to FSD (Supervised). However, Tesla argues that some EU rules are “outdated and rules‑based,” and there is no guarantee of near‑term approval. ^[19]

For investors, this FSD/robotaxi narrative is central. Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Piper Sandler and others all explicitly value robo‑taxis and humanoid robots as major chunks of their Tesla price targets, sometimes worth more than the legacy car business itself. ^[20]

3. The other side: EV sales and regulatory headwinds

While FSD drives the story, the core EV business looks far less rosy, especially since late November.

Europe: registrations plunge despite cheaper models

Reuters reports that Tesla’s new car registrations plunged in several key European markets in November:

Down 58% in France and 59% in Sweden
Down roughly 50% in Denmark, 44% in the Netherlands, and 47% in Portugal
Only partly offset by big gains in Norway (+175%) and Italy (+58%)

Across Europe, Tesla’s market share slipped to 1.6% for January–October 2025, down from 2.4% a year earlier. ^[21]

Tesla is rolling out cheaper versions of its best‑selling Model Y and a new low‑cost Model 3 Standard in Europe—priced at €37,970 in Germany, versus €45,970 for the higher‑end version—in an effort to combat weakening demand and intensifying competition from Volkswagen and Chinese makers like BYD. ^[22]

China: first annual sales decline likely

In China, Tesla’s November retail sales slipped, leaving year‑to‑date sales at 531,855 vehicles, about 125,000 short of last year’s total of 657,105 with only one month left. Electrek estimates that even if Tesla delivered a record 85,000 vehicles in December, China sales would still end 2025 down about 6% year‑on‑year, while local rivals like Xiaomi and Xpeng are growing triple‑digit percentages. ^[23]

Another analysis from Digitimes Asia (behind a paywall) characterizes the situation as a late‑2025 comeback in China’s BEV market that is being overshadowed by a “sharp downturn” in Europe, reinforcing the idea of an uneven global picture. ^[24]

United States: November slump against strong Q3

In the U.S., CarbonCredits.com notes that Tesla’s November deliveries fell to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest monthly tally of 2025 and roughly 24% below the same period in 2024, even after a strong August. ^[25]

Yet Q3 2025 results, reported on October 22, still showed resilience at a global level:

497,099 vehicles delivered worldwide, up 7% year‑on‑year, with record energy storage deployments of 12.5 GWh. ^[26]
Total revenue up 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and rapid growth in energy and services segments. ^[27]
Operating income fell 40% YoY to $1.6 billion, with operating margin dropping to 5.8%, pressured by higher R&D and AI spending, lower regulatory credit revenue and tariffs, partially offset by growth in energy and services gross profit. ^[28]
Free cash flow hit a record $4.0 billion, and quarter‑end cash and investments climbed to $41.6 billion, up $4.9 billion sequentially. ^[29]

In short: volumes and cash flow remain strong, but profitability is under pressure as Tesla spends heavily on AI, robotaxis and new energy products while cutting prices to defend EV market share.

4. What Wall Street is saying about Tesla stock now

Consensus forecasts: falling 2025 earnings, rebound in 2026

According to StockAnalysis.com:

Analysts expect 2025 revenue of $97.1 billion, slightly below 2024 (‑0.6%), before growth re‑accelerates to $109.2 billion in 2026 (+12.4%). ^[30]
Consensus EPS for 2025 is 1.65, down from 2.04 in 2024 (‑19%), with a rebound to 2.14 in 2026 (+29%). ^[31]

This implies that many analysts see 2025 as a digestion year for Tesla—margin compression, heavy investment, and demand growing only modestly—before AI and new products begin to show up more clearly in profits.

The same dataset shows:

Average 12‑month price target: $389
Median target: $435
High: $600 (Wedbush)
Low: $19.05 (ultra‑bear), highlighting just how divided opinion is. ^[32]

Key recent analyst calls (since late November)

Piper Sandler – Overweight, $500 target
Reiterated its bullish stance after FSD v14 data showed a huge jump in miles between interventions, arguing FSD is nearing full autonomy and remains central to Tesla’s long‑term value. ^[33]
Morgan Stanley – Equal Weight, $425 target (up from $410)
New analyst Andrew Percoco emphasizes that Tesla deserves a premium valuation for its leadership in EVs, renewable energy and “real‑world AI,” but believes much of the upside from those themes is already reflected in the price. His bull case reaches $860 if Tesla executes on unsupervised FSD, scales robotaxis and Optimus, while his bear case drops to $145 if competition and regulatory roadblocks erode margins and growth. ^[34]
Stifel – Strong Buy, target raised to $508
Stifel remains aggressively bullish, seeing upside from FSD and robotaxis despite the tough EV backdrop. ^[35]
Mizuho – Buy, target trimmed from $485 to $475
Still positive but slightly less so, reflecting near‑term uncertainties around EV demand and pricing. ^[36]
Wedbush – Buy, $600 target
Maintains one of the street‑high targets, treating Tesla as a hybrid of AI, EV and energy platform. ^[37]
Deutsche Bank – Buy, $470 target (top car pick for 2026)
Values Tesla’s car business at about $175 per share, but assigns substantial value to energy storage ($34), robotaxis ($148) and humanoid robots ($111), reflecting a thesis that non‑auto businesses will drive most of the upside. ^[38]

At the same time, prominent skeptics remain. Investor Michael Burry recently called Tesla’s market capitalization “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter, while acknowledging past short bets against TSLA have not worked out. ^[39]

5. Long‑term Tesla forecasts to 2030

Long‑range forecasts are inherently speculative, but investors are paying attention because Tesla’s valuation already bakes in big expectations beyond EVs.

Wall Street consensus (via StockAnalysis & 24/7 Wall St.)

StockAnalysis shows analysts expecting revenue growth to re‑accelerate after 2025, though the dataset only gives explicit numbers through 2026. ^[40]
24/7 Wall St. goes further, modeling Tesla’s revenue rising from $112.1B in 2025 to $297.4B by 2030, with normalized EPS climbing from $1.91 to $11.24. Its internal price path runs from $351.73 in 2025 (about 22% downside from current levels) to $1,116.86 by 2030, implying large long‑term upside if the company hits its growth and margin targets. ^[41]

Quant models

CoinCodex’s near‑term technical model forecasts a small drop over the next week, projecting TSLA could dip to around $415.71 by December 13, about ‑6.6% versus today. ^[42]

Models like these depend heavily on statistical patterns and assumed growth trajectories rather than fundamental certainty, and all of them are highly sensitive to changes in regulation, competition and macro conditions.

6. Key risks and catalysts investors are watching

Major upside catalysts

Successful rollout of driverless robotaxis in Austin & Phoenix
Demonstrated safety and high utilization in these first markets could support Tesla’s push into 8–10 metro areas and validate the robotaxi business model investors are already pricing in. ^[43]
Regulatory approval of FSD in Europe and more U.S. states
Progress with the Dutch RDW and other regulators could unlock a large subscription market for FSD in Europe and strengthen the “AI platform” narrative. ^[44]
Energy storage and grid services growth
Q3 2025 brought record energy storage deployments and record gross profit from the energy segment, aided by new products like Megapack 3 and Megablock and a new solar‑plus‑Powerwall lease. ^[45] In bullish models, Tesla’s energy business eventually commands a large chunk of corporate value.
Optimus humanoid robot commercialization
Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and 24/7 Wall St. all assign explicit value to Optimus, sometimes tens of dollars per share. ^[46] Concrete pilot deployments or large customer orders could significantly affect sentiment.

Major risks

EV demand softness and price pressure
Europe’s November plunge in registrations, China’s likely first annual sales decline and U.S. demand softness show that Tesla is not immune to broader EV fatigue and fierce competition, especially from lower‑priced Chinese vehicles. ^[47]
Regulatory and safety headwinds for FSD and robotaxis
Safety incidents in Austin, political pushback in Europe and complex U.S. state‑level rules could delay or limit unsupervised FSD and robotaxi deployment, challenging bullish AI‑centric valuations. ^[48]
Margin compression and capital intensity
Q3 2025 showed a 40% drop in operating income even as revenue rose, driven by higher R&D, AI investments and pricing actions. Tesla is also contemplating building its own massive AI chip fab, a move Musk has suggested may be necessary to support future FSD models, which could require large capital outlays. ^[49]
Valuation risk
With TSLA already trading above the average analyst target and near all‑time highs in market cap, any disappointment in FSD adoption, robotaxi economics or Optimus timelines could trigger sharp repricing. ^[50]

7. How to think about Tesla stock now

Since November 21, 2025, two narratives have crystallized around Tesla stock:

The AI & autonomy narrative – backed by rapid FSD progress, robotaxi permits in Arizona, promises of fully driverless service in Austin, expanding European pilot programs and bullish analyst models that treat Tesla more like an AI/robotics company than a carmaker. ^[51]
The EV reality check – highlighted by sharp sales declines in parts of Europe, a likely down year in China, and softer U.S. volumes, even as Tesla rolls out cheaper Model 3 and Model Y variants to protect share. ^[52]

Wall Street’s average 12‑month targets—clustered around the high‑$300s to low‑$400s—suggest that many analysts believe the AI upside is already mostly priced in at today’s $451 level, while a vocal minority projects dramatic upside if robotaxis and Optimus scale smoothly. ^[53]

For investors, the key questions over the next 12–24 months are likely to be:

Can Tesla prove that unsupervised FSD is safe and scalable enough to win broad regulatory approval?
Will EV demand stabilize as new lower‑priced models arrive, or will competition and policy shifts keep pressure on volumes and margins?
Do emerging businesses—energy storage, AI chips, Optimus—grow fast enough to justify Tesla’s trillion‑dollar, premium‑to‑auto valuation?