Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back in the middle of the market’s favorite argument: is Tesla primarily an electric-vehicle company battling a slowing demand cycle—or an AI/autonomy platform on the verge of a step-change moment?
As of the latest available quote, Tesla stock is around $458.96 after a strong prior session, with heavy trading volume and a wide daily range that underscores how quickly sentiment can swing when “robotaxi” and “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) are in the headlines. [1]
What’s new on December 15, 2025 is not another abstract promise. It’s a tangible signal from Austin, Texas—plus fresh analyst positioning and a still-messy demand backdrop that keeps the bull case and bear case alive at the same time.
TSLA stock price today: where Tesla shares stand and why traders care
Tesla shares last closed at $458.96, up about 2.7%, following a session that saw the stock trade roughly between the low $440s and the low $460s. [2]
This matters for one simple reason: Tesla stock is trading less like a steady auto manufacturer and more like a high-beta tech story where each incremental autonomy datapoint can move the narrative—and the narrative can move the multiple.
That narrative got a fresh jolt over the weekend.
Breaking news on Dec. 15: Tesla begins testing robotaxis in Austin without safety monitors
A weekend video posted on X appeared to show a Tesla Model Y operating on Austin streets with no one inside—no driver and no in-car safety monitor. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that “testing is underway with no occupants in the car,” indicating Tesla has moved into a new phase of its Austin robotaxi program. [3]
Key details investors are weighing:
- Tesla’s Austin robotaxi service has been running since June, but it previously included a human monitor in the passenger seat. [4]
- The “no-occupant” testing appears to be testing, not a fully open commercial service for paying riders—at least not yet. [5]
- A Robotaxi Tracker cited by Business Insider said there are 31 active vehicles in Austin, up from 29 in November, and Musk previously discussed an ambition to scale to 500 in Austin by year-end. [6]
For Tesla’s valuation debate, this is the crucial nuance: the stock’s premium is increasingly about autonomy and robotics, not just quarterly vehicle deliveries. A visible step toward “no safety monitor” testing is exactly the kind of milestone that can inflate (or deflate) expectations quickly—because it implies a path from supervised demos to scalable operations.
FSD v14: the technology narrative is improving—while the “supervised” label remains
Tesla has been pushing its latest software generation, branded Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14, including trials for eligible owners. The company’s own language matters here: “Supervised” is not marketing fluff—it is a legal and operational constraint that implies the driver remains responsible. [7]
At the same time, multiple reports today emphasize that v14 is a meaningful iteration:
- Barron’s reported its testing found v14 to be noticeably smoother and more capable than earlier versions, while still not equivalent to true autonomy. [8]
- The same Barron’s report pointed to crowdsourced tracking suggesting v14.1.7 is achieving thousands of miles between “critical disengagements” (moments requiring urgent human takeover), though that dataset is not a regulated safety audit and should be treated as directional. [9]
This is where Tesla stock becomes a philosophical object as much as a financial one: markets are trying to price a future business (robotaxi networks, software margins, humanoid robots) using incomplete signals (videos, beta performance, limited pilots).
The reality check: U.S. sales dropped sharply in November, even as Tesla gained share
While autonomy excitement drives headlines, Tesla’s core EV business is still the cash engine—and recent demand data has been soft.
Reuters reported that Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% in November to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest since January 2022, based on Cox Automotive estimates provided exclusively to Reuters. [10]
The same Reuters report highlighted:
- The slump followed the end of $7,500 federal EV tax credits at the end of September, which hit demand across the sector. [11]
- Tesla introduced cheaper “Standard” variants of the Model Y and Model 3, about $5,000 below prior base pricing, but Cox suggested these trims may be cannibalizing higher-margin versions rather than expanding total demand. [12]
- Even with the overall EV market down, Tesla’s U.S. share rose to 56.7% (from 43.1%) as rivals were hit harder—an important “relative strength” signal in a weak category. [13]
- Tesla also advertised 0% financing on certain variants, which analysts and investors in the report read as another sign demand is not currently tight. [14]
So the tug-of-war looks like this:
- Autonomy story: progress is visible, and markets reward visible progress.
- EV fundamentals: demand is under pressure, and margins can get squeezed by price cuts, financing incentives, and mix shifts.
Tesla stock is basically those two narratives fighting in real time.
Global demand and competition: Europe and China remain pressure points
Reuters also noted Tesla is facing sales pressure in Europe, China, and the U.S.—the world’s three largest auto markets. The report cited steep declines in Europe, rising competition from both legacy automakers and Chinese entrants, and a lineup that critics argue is aging outside of incremental refreshes. [15]
Among the sharper data points from Reuters’ reporting:
- Tesla’s European sales fell 48.5% in October versus the same month a year earlier, and were down roughly 30% for the year in the region, even as industry-wide EV sales rose, per Reuters citing ACEA data. [16]
- Visible Alpha estimates cited by Reuters suggested Tesla’s global deliveries could decline around 7% in 2025, after a drop in 2024. [17]
That’s the macro backdrop behind why so many Tesla notes now read like: “We love the long-term AI optionality… but the car business is wobbling.”
Deliveries context: Q3 was a record quarter, but “pulled-forward” demand is a concern
Tesla did post record quarterly deliveries in Q3 2025—497,099 vehicles, according to Reuters—helped by a rush of U.S. purchases ahead of the tax credit expiration. [18]
The same Reuters report cautioned that a pre-expiration surge can mean “pulled-forward” demand (buyers purchasing earlier than they otherwise would have), potentially leading to softer quarters afterward. [19]
Reuters also cited Visible Alpha projections at the time suggesting full-year 2025 deliveries of about 1.61 million, roughly 10% below 2024, though estimates vary across time and datasets. [20]
This history matters because investors are now looking at a classic Tesla pattern:
- Incentives or catalysts pull demand forward
- The “after” period reveals the underlying demand baseline
- The stock then re-prices around whether autonomy/software can compensate for cyclical auto softness
Analyst forecasts and price targets: “Hold” risk management vs. “Buy” autonomy optionality
Morgan Stanley downgrade: “fair valuation” arrives faster than autonomy
One of the biggest recent catalysts for sentiment was Morgan Stanley’s downgrade of Tesla from Overweight to Equal-weight, while simultaneously raising its price target to $425 from $410. [21]
Investopedia summarized Morgan Stanley’s argument as essentially: Tesla is a leader in EVs and real-world AI, but expectations are now high enough that near-term upside looks limited. [22]
Morgan Stanley also provided a “sum-of-the-parts” framing that shows where bulls think the value really sits (and where skeptics think the assumptions are doing a lot of work), including contributions from:
- EV business
- Network services (software/charging/service)
- Energy
- Mobility (robotaxi)
- Humanoids (Optimus) [23]
The broader Street: consensus targets imply downside, but the distribution is wild
Aggregated analyst data illustrates why Tesla stock remains a debate stock:
- A compilation on StockAnalysis shows an average price target around $389 (about 15% downside from ~$459), while the median target is about $435 (about 5% downside). [24]
- The high target listed is $600 (about 31% upside), with the low target far below—showing just how dispersed Tesla’s outcome tree is. [25]
- Recent target actions listed include: Piper Sandler at $500, Stifel at $508, Mizuho at $475, and Wedbush at $600. [26]
Translation: even among pros, Tesla is being valued like a company that could either (a) look expensive because EV demand is weak, or (b) look cheap in hindsight if autonomy scales faster than expected.
Why 2026 is being framed as a “prove it” year for Tesla
A longtime Tesla investor, Ross Gerber, told Business Insider he views 2026 as a pivotal year in which Tesla will need to show concrete progress that matches the market’s autonomy and robotics expectations—or risk a backlash. He also argued Waymo remains ahead in the self-driving landscape and criticized Tesla’s camera-only approach versus competitors that incorporate lidar. [27]
Gerber is not “the market,” but his framing captures the broader setup: Tesla’s stock price has, in part, become a referendum on whether Tesla can turn autonomy into a large, scalable, regulated business—not just an impressive beta product.
Competitive and regulatory context: self-driving is messy for everyone
Even Tesla’s closest autonomy competitor stories are a reminder that regulation and safety scrutiny don’t disappear when the software improves.
Reuters reported that Waymo (Alphabet’s self-driving unit) recalled 3,067 vehicles due to a software issue connected to improperly passing stopped school buses, following an investigation by U.S. regulators. [28]
For Tesla investors, this is relevant because it highlights a core reality: autonomy is not just a technical problem. It’s a compliance, operations, and trust problem—at scale, in public, under scrutiny.
Other Tesla headlines investors are tracking right now
Beyond robotaxi testing and analyst targets, a few additional threads remain on the tape:
- Vehicle recall risk: Tesla has issued recall communications for certain Model 3 and Model Y vehicles related to a battery pack contactor issue, with owner notifications expected in December 2025, per NHTSA documentation and Tesla’s support materials. [29]
- Ongoing demand tactics: price positioning, financing incentives, and trim strategy (Standard vs Premium) are increasingly central to how analysts model margins into 2026. [30]
These aren’t always “front page” stories, but they influence how confident investors feel about Tesla’s earnings power while autonomy matures.
What TSLA investors should watch next
Here are the near-term catalysts that matter most for Tesla stock going into year-end and early 2026:
- Austin robotaxi scope and transparency
More clarity on how Tesla is supervising “no-occupant” testing (remote monitoring, geofencing, incident reporting) would shape confidence fast. [31] - FSD adoption and monetization
Better software is only half the equation. The other half is: how many owners pay for it, and what happens to attach rates when performance improves. [32] - Q4 deliveries and 2026 demand indicators
Q3 showed how incentives can pull demand forward; the market will be hypersensitive to what “normal demand” looks like after the tax credit era shift. [33] - Next earnings date expectations
Public calendars currently point to a late-January 2026 earnings window for Tesla (with some variance depending on the source), though companies can always update schedules. [34] - Competition and regulation
The autonomy space is now “real world,” meaning every misstep—Tesla’s or a competitor’s—can trigger regulatory tightening that affects timelines. [35]
Bottom line for Tesla stock on Dec. 15, 2025
Tesla stock is being driven by a high-stakes dual narrative:
- The EV business is dealing with real demand softness, pricing pressure, and intense global competition. [36]
- The autonomy/robotaxi business just delivered a visible milestone—testing in Austin without in-car safety monitors—which is the kind of development that can meaningfully shift investor expectations. [37]
That combination is why price targets are scattered, why downgrades can coexist with higher targets, and why 2026 is being framed as a year where Tesla needs to turn “impressive demos” into “repeatable business.”
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.businessinsider.com, 4. www.businessinsider.com, 5. www.businessinsider.com, 6. www.businessinsider.com, 7. www.tesla.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.businessinsider.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. static.nhtsa.gov, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.businessinsider.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. finance.yahoo.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.businessinsider.com
