NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 4:16 PM ET — Market closed
- Tesla shares fell 2.6% on Friday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227 vehicles. 1
- A filing showed Tesla deployed a record 14.2 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage in the quarter. 1
- Investors are looking toward Tesla’s Jan. 28 results for margin and demand signals as competition intensifies. 1
Tesla shares closed at $438.07 on Friday, down 2.6%, after the electric-vehicle maker reported a bigger-than-expected drop in fourth-quarter deliveries, a filing showed. The update also underscored that Tesla has ceded the annual EV sales lead to China’s BYD. 1
The delivery report matters now because it is the market’s first clear checkpoint for Tesla demand after U.S. federal EV tax credits ended in September, removing a key lever that had helped pull forward orders earlier in 2025. It also lands as investors reset positioning for the new year in high-growth stocks that tend to move with rate expectations. 2
With Tesla’s valuation still anchored to expectations that it can broaden beyond car sales into autonomy and robotics, any sign the core auto business is stalling can ripple through sentiment. Investors are also watching whether lower-priced “Standard” trims introduced late last year protect volume at the cost of profit per vehicle. 2
In an 8-K filing dated Jan. 2, Tesla said it produced 434,358 vehicles and delivered 418,227 in the October-December quarter. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries were 406,585, while “other models” totaled 11,642. 1
Tesla said it deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products in the quarter, a record for deployments — gigawatt-hours measure battery capacity. For 2025, Tesla reported 1,636,129 deliveries and 46.7 GWh of energy storage deployments. 1
Analysts had expected 434,487 fourth-quarter deliveries, according to Visible Alpha, which compiles estimates, Reuters reported. The same Reuters report cited J.D. Power data showing EVs made up 6.2% of U.S. retail vehicle sales in the quarter, down 3.6 percentage points from a year earlier, while average transaction prices rose nearly $6,000 to $53,300. 2
BYD’s advance has sharpened the competitive backdrop Tesla faces going into 2026. A Reuters report on BYD said its EV sales rose 27.9% to 2.26 million units in 2025 and overseas sales climbed to 1,046,083 vehicles, with the company aiming to sell up to 1.6 million cars outside China in 2026. 3
Europe remains a pressure point for Tesla demand. In December, registrations — a proxy for sales — fell 66% in France and 71% in Sweden, but jumped 89% in Norway, Reuters reported, highlighting uneven momentum across the region. 4
Some traders say the market is still prioritizing Tesla’s longer-dated technology narrative over quarterly volume swings. “Investors are so focused on the future with Tesla that they are ignoring delivery numbers. It’s about Optimus, Robotaxi and physical AI,” said Dennis Dick, a trader at Triple D Trading, according to Reuters. 2
Technically, Tesla traded between an intraday low of $435.33 and a high of $462.42 on Friday, leaving support near the mid-$430s and resistance in the low-$460s heading into Monday’s open. Investors also watch Monday’s ISM manufacturing survey at 10:00 a.m. ET for signals on growth and rates. 5
But the delivery miss keeps Tesla exposed to downside if price competition deepens and margins compress, particularly if demand remains uneven in Europe and the post-tax-credit U.S. market. Tesla has also cautioned that deliveries and deployments alone do not determine quarterly financial results because pricing, costs and foreign exchange can swing results. 1
The next catalyst is Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, Jan. 28, followed by a live Q&A webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET. The same day, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, setting up a potentially volatile session for TSLA. 1
