Tesla (TSLA) Stock After Hours on December 11, 2025: Robotaxi Hype vs. EV Demand Slump Before Friday’s Open

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) finished Thursday’s session under pressure, closing around $446.8 per share, down roughly 1% on the day, even as broader indices hovered near record highs. ^[1] After the bell, trading in TSLA was relatively muted, with no major extended-hours move as investors digested weak U.S. November sales, aggressive year‑end discounts, and fresh robotaxi headlines.

Heading into the Friday, December 12, 2025 open, traders are staring at a tug‑of‑war:

Bearish side: U.S. sales at a near three‑year low, rising incentives and 0% financing, shrinking auto margins, legal risk around autonomy, and a valuation north of 300x trailing earnings. ^[2]
Bullish side: Rapid progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD), a growing robotaxi footprint, brand and demand recovery in China, and long‑term price targets that still point to multi‑bagger potential by 2030. ^[3]

Here’s what changed after the bell on December 11 and what to watch before the market opens on December 12 if you’re following Tesla stock.

1. How Tesla Stock Traded on December 11, 2025

Closing price & move: TSLA ended regular trading around $446.8, down about 1.0% versus Wednesday, roughly in line with estimates from multiple market data providers. ^[4]
Volume: More than 51 million shares changed hands, indicating elevated interest compared with a typical day. ^[5]
After-hours tone: As of Thursday evening, there was no evidence of a large after‑hours dislocation, suggesting that new headlines were being absorbed rather than triggering panic or euphoric buying.

Technically, short‑term traders are focused on the $405–$410 support zone below and the $380–$390 area as a potential downside test if selling accelerates, according to trading commentary highlighted by Invezz/TradingView. ^[6] Bulls, meanwhile, still frame pullbacks as “buy‑the‑dip” chances tied to Tesla’s AI and robotics story.

2. EV Demand Check: U.S. Sales Hit a Near Three‑Year Low

The most important fundamental datapoint to hit the tape on Thursday came from Reuters, via Cox Automotive data:

U.S. November sales: Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year‑over‑year to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest level since January 2022. ^[7]
Standard variants not enough: New “Standard” versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, launched about $5,000 cheaper than prior base trims, failed to fully offset the post‑tax‑credit demand drop. Cox’s industry insights director argued that these cheaper trims may be cannibalizing higher‑margin Premium models, especially the Model 3. ^[8]
Market share vs. shrinking pie: While overall U.S. EV sales fell more than 41% in November after the end of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit, Tesla’s market share in the U.S. actually rose to about 56.7% from 43.1% a year earlier. ^[9]

The picture is nuanced:

Positive: Tesla remains the dominant U.S. EV brand, effectively propping up EV registrations even as incentives vanish and legacy automakers pull back. Jalopnik notes that Tesla accounted for more than half of U.S. BEV registrations in October and saw particularly strong Model Y registration growth. ^[10]
Negative: Absolute volumes are shrinking, and Tesla itself is on track for a second consecutive year of delivery declines, something virtually unheard of for the company in the 2020s. Teslarati’s analysis suggests 2025 deliveries could fall around 8% year‑over‑year if Tesla finishes near 1.65 million vehicles. ^[11]

For Friday’s open, this “strong share, weak volume” narrative will be central to how investors price Tesla’s core auto business.

3. Pricing, Incentives and Margin Pressure

To keep metal moving, Tesla is leaning hard on discounts and financing offers:

Model Y discounts:
- Up to $1,500 off new U.S. Model Y Standard trims in inventory.
- Up to $2,000 off Model Y Premium trims.
- Plus one free upgrade (paint or interior) as part of a year‑end push. ^[12]
0% financing: Tesla’s U.S. website is showing financing as low as 0% on the Standard Model Y, a perk analysts see as a sign that demand isn’t as robust as hoped for such a new variant. ^[13]
Tax credit whiplash: Q3 2025 was Tesla’s best-ever quarter for deliveries, in large part because buyers rushed to lock in the $7,500 federal tax credit before it expired at the end of September. ^[14] That pulled demand forward, leaving a hole in subsequent months that Tesla is now trying to patch with discounts and cheap financing.

At the same time, prior financials show margin compression:

Q2 2025 results:
- Revenue down 12% year‑over‑year to $22.5 billion.
- Vehicle deliveries down 13%.
- Operating margin slid to 4.1%. ^[15]

Tesla framed Q2 as a “seminal point” in its transition from a pure EV builder to an AI and robotics platform, even as it accepted lower auto margins to support its strategy. ^[16]

For Friday, expect investors to re‑price TSLA based on the trade‑off between:

Short‑term margin pressure from discounts, 0% financing and aging models.
Long‑term software and services margin potential from FSD, robotaxis, and energy storage.

4. FSD, Robotaxis and the AI Narrative

If the auto story is “meh,” the autonomy story is on fire.

4.1 FSD performance jumps

Several fresh pieces of research and commentary highlight big gains in Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving performance:

Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter reiterated an “Overweight” rating with a $500 price target, citing Tesla as “very close” to unsupervised FSD. ^[17]
Data from a community FSD tracker show “miles to critical disengagement” jumping more than 20x after FSD v14.1.x, from roughly 441 miles to over 9,200 miles between interventions — the biggest sequential improvement in four years of tracking. ^[18]

Teslarati reports that Elon Musk says unsupervised FSD is “pretty much solved”, and a larger, more capable FSD model—about an order of magnitude bigger—is slated for deployment around January or February 2026, with more reasoning and reinforcement learning built in. ^[19]

4.2 Robotaxi deadlines and valuation stakes

The robotaxi narrative is where much of Tesla’s market cap lives:

Musk has promised driverless robotaxis in Austin by year‑end, with cars operating with no human inside at all, according to his recent comments at an xAI hackathon. ^[20]
Reuters notes that Tesla’s robotaxi service, launched in June in Austin and expanded to the San Francisco Bay Area, is still operating with safety monitors for now, though the Austin fleet is expected to roughly double in December. ^[21]

Primary Ignition estimates that around $850 billion of Tesla’s roughly $1.4–$1.5 trillion valuation is tied specifically to robotaxis and humanoid robots. ^[22] Deutsche Bank sees 2026 as a potential inflection point for monetizing FSD and robotics, but warns that missing autonomy milestones would undermine the valuation math. ^[23]

Meanwhile, competitors are not standing still:

Waymo reportedly achieves over 17,000 miles between interventions and has already partnered with Uber, operating fully driverless vehicles in multiple cities. ^[24]
Rivian just unveiled a custom autonomy chip and an Autonomy+ subscription, opting for a camera‑plus‑radar‑plus‑LiDAR stack rather than Tesla’s vision‑only approach. ^[25]

The upshot for tomorrow: any new hints from Musk overnight (especially on X) about safety‑monitor removal, new cities coming online, or regulatory progress could hit Tesla’s pre‑market price quickly, given how much of TSLA’s valuation is tethered to the robotaxi dream.

5. Insurance, Safety and Brand: Subtle but Important Tailwinds

On Thursday, Tesla also picked up a couple of under‑the‑radar positives that support its autonomy and brand story.

5.1 Lemonade partnership and “almost free” FSD insurance

Teslarati reports that:

Tesla owners in California, Oregon, and Arizona can now connect their cars directly to the Lemonade insurance app, eliminating extra telematics hardware and enabling smarter, usage‑based pricing. ^[26]
Lemonade’s co‑founder has floated the idea of insuring FSD miles for “almost free”, which could make FSD more cost‑effective for drivers and encourage more people to use the system. ^[27]

The same report cites data indicating that Tesla’s FSD miles are about nine times less likely to involve an accident than the U.S. national average, with one crash per 6.36 million miles vs. about 702,000 miles nationally — figures that, if validated by independent regulators over time, would strengthen Tesla’s safety case. ^[28]

5.2 Reliability perception is improving

Separately, Tesla’s reliability rankings have climbed sharply. Consumer Reports’ latest index for the 2026 model‑year places Tesla in the top 10 most reliable car brands, a major step up from earlier years when reliability concerns were common talking points for bears. ^[29]

Taken together with data from HundredX showing that Tesla’s net purchase intent and brand trust have recovered after a slump tied to Musk’s political role earlier in 2025, there is mounting evidence that brand damage is healing, which supports the bullish 2026 narrative. ^[30]

6. Fresh Analyst Calls and Long‑Term Price Targets

6.1 Street sentiment snapshot

Across Wall Street, views on Tesla remain deeply divided:

Consensus rating: Around 34 analysts collectively sit at a “Hold” rating, with an average price target near $383–$384, roughly 12–15% below Thursday’s closing price. ^[31]
Bulls:
- Wedbush keeps a $600 price target, pointing to FSD, robotaxis and the Optimus robot as reasons Tesla can justify its premium valuation. ^[32]
- Zacks’ latest “Investment Ideas” piece highlights Tesla as a top AI and autonomy play heading into 2026, emphasizing unsupervised FSD odds (Kalshi odds around 77% for unsupervised FSD before 2026), brand recovery, and renewed strength in China where Model Y recently topped sales charts and Model S is reportedly sold out. ^[33]
- A separate Zacks article, syndicated on Yahoo Finance, argues that “Tesla is back” and could be a top stock in 2026 as core sales reaccelerate alongside moonshot projects like robotaxis and Optimus. ^[34]
Bears / skeptics:
- Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from “Buy” to “Equal Weight,” trimming 2026 volume estimates and highlighting execution risk around FSD deployment. ^[35]
- 24/7 Wall St notes that Tesla currently trades at around 307x trailing earnings and roughly 200x forward earnings, levels that famed short‑seller Michael Burry has criticized as “ridiculously overvalued.” ^[36]

6.2 Long‑term forecasts

24/7 Wall St published a fresh forecast out to 2030 on Thursday: ^[37]

Consensus 12‑month target: About $393, implying ~13% downside from current levels.
Their 2025 year‑end base case: Around $351.73, implying notable downside if Tesla merely grows in line with their base assumptions.
Their 2030 projection: Roughly $1,116.86 per share, which would be about 147% above today’s price if Tesla successfully scales robotaxis, AI software and energy storage while restoring higher margins.

In another article, the same outlet asks what would be required for Tesla to double from here, concluding that three things must happen: faster growth and better margins in the core EV business, meaningful monetization of robotaxis, and a step‑change in profits from energy and AI/robotics (Optimus) businesses. ^[38]

For anyone watching Friday’s open, these disparate targets underscore how sensitive TSLA is to incremental data on margins, FSD milestones, and demand.

7. Key Risks and Opportunities to Watch Before the December 12 Open

Here’s a practical checklist of what matters most for tomorrow:

7.1 Near‑term risk factors

Reaction to U.S. sales data
- The Reuters/Cox numbers showing a 23% U.S. sales decline in November and a near three‑year low in volumes are likely to drive early headlines and pre‑market sentiment. ^[39]
- Watch for follow‑up commentary from analysts or Tesla itself, especially around whether Standard trims and discounts stabilize demand in December.
Discount & financing sustainability
- Aggressive Model Y discounts and 0% financing may support Q4 unit numbers but will likely weigh on auto margins. ^[40]
- Any leaks or commentary about Q4 margin guidance could move the stock quickly.
Valuation sensitivity
- At a market cap around $1.4–$1.5 trillion with triple‑digit P/E multiples, TSLA is highly sensitive to any signal that either growth is slowing or FSD timelines are slipping. ^[41]
- A “hawkish” Fed cutting rates while warning about future policy, and broader concerns about an AI bubble, add to volatility for high‑multiple names like Tesla. ^[42]
Legal and hardware overhangs
- Global class‑action lawsuits arguing that earlier Teslas lack the hardware needed for true autonomy, despite Tesla’s past claims, remain a background risk. ^[43]
- Musk’s roadmap for future AI hardware (AI5 and AI6 platforms, promised to be 10–40x more powerful than current hardware) is exciting but capital‑intensive and years out. ^[44]

7.2 Potential upside catalysts

Positive FSD or robotaxi news
- Any overnight update confirming removal of safety monitors in Austin within weeks, new cities coming online, or stronger‑than‑expected FSD safety data could support the bull case for higher software‑like margins. ^[45]
Brand & reliability improvements
- Continued confirmation that Tesla’s reliability ranking and brand trust are improving could lure back mainstream buyers turned off earlier in 2025. ^[46]
Options and positioning dynamics
- MarketChameleon recently flagged heavy activity in TSLA’s Dec 12, 2025, $440 call options, suggesting traders are actively positioning around Friday’s expiry. ^[47]
- If TSLA opens near key technical levels, options‑driven flows could amplify intraday moves either up or down.
Macro tailwinds
- If the post‑Fed environment continues to favor AI and growth stocks, Tesla can benefit simply by being at the intersection of EVs, AI, robotics and energy storage, even when its auto fundamentals look messy. ^[48]

8. A Simple Pre‑Market Game Plan (Not Financial Advice)

Before the bell on December 12, 2025, TSLA watchers may want to:

Check pre‑market price and volume
- Is the stock reacting sharply to the U.S. sales headline or to any new Musk posts about FSD/robotaxis? Big gaps on light volume can reverse; big gaps on heavy volume can signal real trend shifts.
Re‑read the November sales story
- Focus on whether you believe the sales slump is temporary tax‑credit hangover or a sign of deeper demand issues that even cheaper trims and 0% financing can’t fix. ^[49]
Update your thesis on FSD timing
- Decide how much weight you give to:
  - FSD tracker performance data (9,000+ miles per critical disengagement). ^[50]
  - Kalshi’s 77% odds for unsupervised FSD before 2026. ^[51]
  - Tesla’s versus Waymo’s real‑world results and regulatory paths. ^[52]
Reconcile valuation with your time horizon
- Short‑term traders may focus on technical levels like $405–$410 support and the $380–$390 zone below.
- Long‑term investors should decide whether they align more with:
  - Bears who see 2025 fair value nearer $350–$380, or
  - Bulls who can live with volatility in pursuit of $600+ medium‑term targets and four‑digit 2030 scenarios. ^[53]

As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Tesla remains one of the most polarizing, high‑beta stocks in the market: small headlines can have outsized impacts, and the stock’s path will likely depend on whether robotaxis and AI profits arrive on Musk’s timeline—or not at all.