Tesla (TSLA) Stock After the Bell on December 10, 2025: AI Hype, Fed Cut and What to Watch Before the December 11 Open

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) ended Wednesday, December 10, 2025 (10.12.2025), on a strong note, rising with the broader market after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and a wave of fresh AI‑ and robotaxi‑focused analysis.

By the close, Tesla shares were trading around $451 – up roughly 1.4% on the day, with the stock moving in a wide band from the mid‑$440s to the mid‑$450s on heavy volume. In early after‑hours trading, TSLA hovered around $450, giving back a sliver of those gains in thin trading. ^[1]

That leaves Tesla about 8% below its 52‑week high near $488 and more than double its 52‑week low around $214, while its market value sits around $1.4 trillion and its valuation remains extremely rich versus traditional automakers. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at what moved Tesla after the bell on 10 December 2025 and what traders and investors should know before the U.S. market opens on 11 December 2025.

1. Tesla Stock Recap – December 10, 2025

• Regular session close:
  • Around $451–452 per share, up about 1.4% versus Tuesday’s close near $445. ^[3]
• Intraday range:
  • Opened around $446, traded between roughly $444 and the mid‑$450s during the day. ^[4]
• Volume:
  • Roughly 50–60 million shares traded, broadly in line with recent days and confirming strong participation in the post‑Fed rally. ^[5]
• After‑hours:
  • Early after‑hours quotes showed TSLA around $450, down about 0.3% from the regular close. ^[6]

From a bigger‑picture perspective, TSLA is:

• Well off its 2024–early‑2025 peak, after a drawdown of more than 50% into April 2025, according to GuruFocus. ^[7]
• Still trading at a lofty valuation, with trailing price‑to‑earnings ratios ranging from about 200 to nearly 300 depending on the data provider – far above the S&P 500 and the traditional auto sector. ^[8]
• Sitting roughly 8% below its 52‑week high (~$488.50) and more than 100% above its 52‑week low (~$214.29). ^[9]

That context matters because it shapes how investors are interpreting every new Tesla headline.

2. Macro Driver: Fed Rate Cut Supercharges Risk Assets

The backdrop for Wednesday’s move was the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025.

• The Fed delivered a third consecutive 25‑basis‑point cut, taking the federal funds rate down to a 3.5%–3.75% range. ^[10]
• Chair Jerome Powell signaled a more cautious path ahead but acknowledged that inflation has eased and productivity gains – including from AI and data‑center spending – are supporting the economy. ^[11]

Financial media and market strategists framed the move as broadly positive for:

• Long‑duration, growth‑oriented stocks (like Tesla) that are very sensitive to interest‑rate expectations. ^[12]
• High‑multiple AI and tech names, where lower discount rates help justify premium valuations.

Tesla is widely viewed as both an EV company and an AI/robotaxi play, so it naturally benefited from this “risk‑on” reaction across markets.

3. Big Tesla Headlines on December 10, 2025

3.1 Deutsche Bank: Tesla as Top Auto Stock for 2026

The most eye‑catching piece of fundamental news on December 10 was a bullish 2026 outlook from Deutsche Bank, highlighted in Barron’s:

• Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu named Tesla his top automotive stock pick for 2026, despite acknowledging that Tesla’s traditional car business may underperform due to softer EV demand and rising competition, especially from China. ^[13]
• Yu set a $470 price target, explicitly breaking Tesla’s value into segments:
  • about $175 per share for autos
  • $34 for stationary energy
  • $148 for robo‑taxis
  • about $111 for humanoid robots
  • the remainder for other services. ^[14]

The key takeaway: Deutsche Bank is telling clients that Tesla’s future is “about much more than EVs”, with AI‑driven businesses (robotaxis and robots) doing much of the heavy lifting in its valuation model.

MarketWatch and other outlets echoed this theme, noting that Tesla could remain a top pick for 2026 even as EV unit sales struggle, because the market increasingly values it as an AI and robotics company. ^[15]

3.2 “AI Halo” vs. Rivian and the Rest of EV Land

A widely circulated MarketWatch piece – syndicated via several platforms – argued that Tesla’s stock carries an “AI halo” that rivals like Rivian haven’t yet earned. ^[16]

Key points from that analysis:

• Tesla’s valuation reflects investor belief in its AI capabilities (Full Self‑Driving, data, robotics), not just its current EV business.
• By contrast, Rivian is still treated more like a “pure EV maker,” though its upcoming Autonomy and AI Day could showcase new self‑driving tech and potentially narrow that perception gap.

For Tesla holders, this matters because it underscores why TSLA trades at a far richer multiple than other EV stocks. It also highlights a risk: if Tesla’s AI execution disappoints, that halo – and the premium that comes with it – could fade quickly.

3.3 Musk Says Tesla Has “Pretty Much Solved” Unsupervised FSD

On the technology side, Elon Musk’s latest Full Self‑Driving (FSD) comments kept AI enthusiasm (and controversy) alive:

• In an interview reported by Benzinga, Musk said Tesla has “pretty much solved” Unsupervised Full Self‑Driving, and that driverless robotaxis are coming to Austin in about three weeks. ^[17]
• The report added that Tesla aims to expand FSD in Europe as regulators and safety approvals allow.

Zacks followed up with a piece asking whether Tesla robotaxis can be “fully driverless” by the end of 2025, emphasizing that: ^[18]

• The technical challenge is enormous.
• Regulatory approval remains a critical gating factor.
• Any delays or safety incidents could undermine the bullish AI narrative.

For traders going into the December 11 open, these FSD claims are a double‑edged sword: they keep the long‑term AI story alive, but they also raise the bar for what markets will expect from real‑world robotaxi rollouts in 2026.

3.4 Incentives, Margins and the Health of the Core EV Business

Not all Wednesday news was about AI and robots. Fundamentals of the car business were front and center too.

Model Y incentives

A Yahoo Finance report highlighted that Tesla is boosting incentives for the Model Y to support demand. ^[19]

• The piece noted discounts and financing sweeteners aimed at clearing inventory and sustaining market share.
• While helpful for volumes, heavier incentives tend to pressure margins, which is exactly what many cautious analysts worry about.

Low‑cost Model 3 in Europe

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Tesla has launched a new lower‑priced “Standard” Model 3 in Europe: ^[20]

• Priced at €37,970 in Germany (well below the “premium” Model 3 at about €45,970), as well as competitively in Norway and Sweden.
• The car sacrifices some premium finishes but still offers over 300 miles (480 km) of range, with deliveries expected in Q1 2026.
• The move is a direct response to softening European demand and fierce competition from Volkswagen’s ID.3 and BYD’s Atto 3, many of which are priced below $30,000.

Taken together, these developments point to a more intense price war in EVs, especially in Europe – a clear fundamental counterweight to the bullish AI story.

3.5 Volatility, Governance and the “DOGE” Overhang

Another widely shared article from GuruFocus revisited Tesla’s big drawdown in early 2025 and linked it to concerns around Elon Musk’s time leading the U.S. government’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): ^[21]

• Tesla’s stock fell over 50% in April 2025 from its December 2024 peak.
• Musk has since expressed regret over his DOGE role, saying he would have preferred to focus on his companies and implying it distracted from Tesla’s execution.
• GuruFocus flagged that Tesla still trades at a very high P/E (~297) and P/S (~16), with a beta around 2.5, underscoring how volatile the shares remain.

The article framed Tesla as financially healthy but high‑risk, with:

• Strong revenue growth and expanding margins,
• A solid balance sheet,
• But substantial sensitivity to sentiment and macro shocks due to its premium valuation.

For short‑term traders, that volatility is part of the appeal. For longer‑term investors, it’s a reminder to stress‑test scenarios on both the upside and downside.

3.6 A Growing Bear Chorus: “Buying the Hype Could Cost You Thousands”

Balancing the Deutsche Bank optimism, Invezz published a starkly cautious piece titled “Tesla stock: why buying the hype could cost you thousands.” ^[22]

Although the full article sits behind a paywall, available summaries emphasize:

• The exponential growth in risk for new retail buyers chasing Tesla at high valuations.
• Concerns that a significant part of the share price now reflects speculative expectations about AI, robotaxis and humanoid robots, rather than the current car and energy businesses.
• The possibility that any disappointment on those fronts could result in sharp drawdowns, as seen earlier in 2025.

Add in a GuruFocus note about “Notable Gains on Tesla (TSLA) Put Options for December,” and it’s clear that some sophisticated traders are hedging or positioning for downside, even as the stock rallies. ^[23]

3.7 Morgan Stanley Downgrade Still Echoes

Although the formal downgrade hit earlier in the week, its impact continued to frame the debate on December 10.

• Morgan Stanley cut Tesla from “Overweight” to “Equal‑Weight”, even as it actually raised its price target from $410 to $425. ^[24]
• The bank’s new Tesla lead analyst Andrew Percoco argued that the stock’s valuation already reflects aggressive expectations around AI, robotaxis, network services and the Optimus humanoid program. ^[25]
• A Forbes piece titled “Analyst Downgrade Puts Tesla Stock’s Risk in Focus” stressed that one of the loudest Wall Street backers of Tesla’s “robotaxi premium” has become more cautious, highlighting how crowded the bullish AI trade may be. ^[26]

Zacks also linked the downgrade to EV‑focused ETFs, suggesting investors might want to reconsider concentrated Tesla exposure in those funds. ^[27]

So even as Deutsche Bank crowned Tesla a top pick, Morgan Stanley’s move reminds the market that not everyone is willing to pay today’s multiple for tomorrow’s AI dreams.

4. Where Wall Street Stands on Tesla Right Now

Analyst data compiled by outlets like Business Insider and StockAnalysis show just how polarizing TSLA has become: ^[28]

• Around 92 analysts cover the stock, with roughly:
  • 64 Buy ratings
  • 13 Hold ratings
  • 15 Sell ratings
• The median 12‑month price target sits in the mid‑$380s, notably below Wednesday’s close around $451.
• Individual targets range from roughly $115 on the bearish end to $600 on the bullish end.

Layer on specific high‑profile calls:

• Deutsche Bank: Buy, $470 target, heavily AI/robotaxi/robot driven. ^[29]
• Morgan Stanley: Equal‑Weight, $425 target, still optimistic on AI but waiting for a better entry point. ^[30]
• Other brokers like Wedbush, Mizuho, Piper Sandler and Bank of America continue to maintain Buy or Hold ratings with targets stretching into the $470–$600 range. ^[31]

In short: the Street is split. The average view sees some downside from current prices, but there is still a large cluster of very bullish analysts betting on Tesla’s AI‑first future.

5. Key Levels and Setup Heading Into the December 11 Open

Looking at the recent tape:

• TSLA has bounced from the mid‑$430s (lows from early December) to the low‑$450s. ^[32]
• Recent swings show support in the $435–$440 zone, where the stock found buyers on December 8–9. ^[33]
• Overhead, $455–$460 stands out as a short‑term resistance band, where Tesla has repeatedly stalled in late November and early December. ^[34]

With no major company‑specific earnings due immediately (Tesla’s next earnings are currently scheduled for late January 2026), near‑term moves are likely to be driven by:

• Macro data and Fed follow‑through. A sustained drop in yields and positive read‑through from Powell’s press conference could keep the AI/growth trade alive. ^[35]
• New analyst notes or rating changes, especially any broker that either joins Deutsche Bank’s AI‑driven bull camp or sides with Morgan Stanley’s more cautious view. ^[36]
• Headline risk around FSD, robotaxis, and regulatory scrutiny.

6. What to Watch Before the U.S. Market Opens on December 11, 2025

Here are the main things traders and investors may want to monitor going into Thursday’s session:

6.1 Does Tesla Hold the $450 Area?

• After rising about 1.4% on December 10 and drifting slightly lower after the bell, the $445–$455 range is the immediate battleground. ^[37]
• A firm open above $450 would suggest the post‑Fed, AI‑driven enthusiasm is intact.
• A gap down into the low‑$440s or below could signal that traders are taking profits or refocusing on valuation and EV demand risks.

6.2 Market Reaction to the Fed’s “Dovish Cut”

• The Fed just delivered its third straight 25‑bps cut while hinting at only one cut in 2026 – a mix of dovish action and cautious guidance. ^[38]
• If bond yields continue to drift lower and equity indexes hold or extend gains, risk‑on trades like TSLA may continue to benefit.
• Any reversal in sentiment – for example, if markets decide the Fed isn’t dovish enough – could hit richly valued names first.

6.3 Robotaxi and FSD Headlines

Expect continued focus on:

• Musk’s timeline for driverless robotaxis in Austin and potential expansion to other cities. ^[39]
• Analyst debate over whether Tesla can genuinely deliver “fully driverless” robotaxis by the end of 2025, as discussed by Zacks and others. ^[40]
• Any new guidance from regulators or safety bodies that might accelerate or slow Tesla’s autonomy rollout.

Positive updates here will reinforce the AI‑halo story; setbacks would cut directly against it.

6.4 EV Demand and Competition – Especially in Europe and China

• European price cuts (like the low‑cost Model 3) and Model Y incentives underscore that the fight for EV share is getting more intense, not less. ^[41]
• News about new Chinese EV launches in Europe, such as Nio’s Firefly brand expanding into Greece and Denmark, adds to the competitive pressure. ^[42]

If more evidence emerges that Tesla must sacrifice margins to defend volumes, investors may become less tolerant of today’s high multiples – especially if AI timelines slip.

6.5 Options and Positioning

• GuruFocus’s note on profitable December Tesla put trades hints that some traders are actively hedging or taking directional downside bets. ^[43]
• Elevated options activity can amplify intraday swings around the open, particularly if Tesla gaps sharply in either direction.

7. Risks vs. Opportunities – A Quick Checklist

Key upside drivers into and beyond December 11

• AI & autonomy optionality:
  • Deutsche Bank and other bulls see huge long‑term value in robo‑taxis and humanoid robots, with those segments making up a large fraction of their price targets. ^[44]
• Fed tailwind:
  • Lower rates and a potential “Santa Rally” environment could keep capital flowing into high‑growth, high‑multiple stories. ^[45]
• Brand and scale:
  • Tesla remains one of the most recognizable EV brands in the world, with a vertically integrated model and expanding energy and software businesses. ^[46]

Key downside risks to keep front‑of‑mind

• Valuation risk:
  • Trailing P/E figures around 200–300 and high price‑to‑sales ratios leave little room for execution missteps. ^[47]
• Execution and regulatory risk in autonomy:
  • Musk’s aggressive robotaxi timelines attract scrutiny; any delays or safety setbacks could undermine the AI premium the stock currently enjoys. ^[48]
• Margin compression from price cuts and incentives:
  • Discounting in Europe and incentives on the Model Y may keep volumes up but weigh on profits – especially if competition intensifies. ^[49]
• Sentiment swings and governance concerns:
  • Tesla’s high beta and Musk‑related headlines (including his DOGE stint and political commentary) continue to drive volatility and headline risk. ^[50]

8. Bottom Line

As of the close and early after‑hours on December 10, 2025, Tesla stock is:

• Riding a post‑Fed, AI‑driven rally.
• Buoyed by Deutsche Bank’s top‑pick call for 2026 and the continuing narrative that it is as much an AI and robotics company as an automaker. ^[51]
• Simultaneously shadowed by Morgan Stanley’s downgrade, rising concerns over valuation and EV competition, and growing bearish commentary warning that “buying the hype” could be costly. ^[52]

Heading into the December 11 open, the $450 area, the market’s reaction to the Fed, and any fresh FSD/robotaxi headlines are likely to shape the next move in TSLA.

References

1. stockanalysis.com, 2. markets.businessinsider.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. markets.businessinsider.com, 9. markets.businessinsider.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.morningstar.com, 17. www.benzinga.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.gurufocus.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. www.marketscreener.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. markets.businessinsider.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. markets.businessinsider.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.barrons.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. www.benzinga.com, 40. www.marketwatch.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.gurufocus.com, 44. www.barrons.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. www.gurufocus.com, 47. www.gurufocus.com, 48. www.benzinga.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.gurufocus.com, 51. www.barrons.com, 52. www.investing.com