Toronto, March 1, 2026, 01:39 EST — Market is shut for the day
- Fresh supply jitters surfaced after disruptions hit the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
- The TSX notched a 7.6% gain for February, even as banks and tech stocks dragged it lower on Friday.
- U.S. payrolls land March 6, with traders watching closely. New Canadian corporate updates are also on the radar.
Bay Street is bracing for Monday’s open with oil back at the forefront. Strikes on Iran over the weekend, along with disruptions affecting tanker movement in the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about a fifth of global oil flow—have pushed up the risk premium on crude and stocks tied to commodities.
The S&P/TSX Composite dipped 0.5% to 34,339.99 on Friday, snapping its streak of three consecutive record closes. Still, the benchmark surged 7.6% in February—its best monthly performance since November 2020. Financials dropped 1.9%, technology slipped 2.5%, with Shopify falling 4.3% and Aritzia tumbling 7.8%. Energy and materials, on the other hand, advanced as oil settled 2.8% higher at $67.02 a barrel, and gold added 1.4%. “Materials and energy are doing the heavy lifting for the TSX,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, while investors weighed the implications of AI disruption and the state of private credit, or loans made outside the traditional banking system. Reuters
The split is getting attention as the market heads into a new month—leadership’s thin, and policy calls are still up in the air. Should crude rally sharply, energy and a handful of miners might provide some support for the index. But when risk-off takes hold, it’s usually those same bank and tech stocks dragging the TSX lower, just like at the end of last week.
Oil strategists aren’t mincing words about the tail risk. RBC Capital’s Helima Croft points to warnings from regional leaders that “$100+/bbl oil was a clear and present danger,” hinging on the extent of the conflict and the outlook for shipping disruptions. Reuters
Homegrown numbers have done little to brighten the outlook. Statistics Canada reported the economy shrank 0.6% annualized in the fourth quarter, with yearly growth ending up at 1.7%. That quarterly slip? Inventory drawdowns played a role. Still, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter noted, “The details of the quarterly results were much firmer than the headline suggests.” Reuters
The Canadian dollar climbed 0.4% to settle at 1.3630 per U.S. dollar on Friday, reaching its strongest level in 11 days. Firmer gold prices and a weaker U.S. dollar underpinned the move. “With gold rallying, the USD has come under pressure,” said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Reuters
TransAlta’s latest update showed investors gravitating toward steady, contracted cash flow—and the growing appetite from data-centre operators for power. The utility posted both fourth-quarter and full-year numbers, bumped up its common-share dividend 8% to an annualized $0.28, and projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $950 million and $1.05 billion. On top of that, TransAlta highlighted a framework agreement with CPP Investments and Brookfield, starting with a long-term power purchase deal for roughly 230 megawatts, with plans to assess scaling that up to as much as 1 gigawatt.
Algonquin Power & Utilities will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results before markets open on Friday, March 6. CEO Rod West and CFO Rob Stefani are set to lead a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
This week’s heavier macro calendar falls toward the back half. Canada drops Q4 productivity numbers Wednesday, March 4, and the U.S. wraps up with its February jobs report on Friday, March 6. Canada’s own February employment figures follow on March 13. Central-bank meetings are set for later in the month.
PDAC, the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention, hits Toronto March 1-4, and mining stocks are primed for some added volatility. The event is notorious for a steady drip of deal rumors and headlines about fresh small-cap financings.
Higher oil prices don’t just fatten up energy earnings—they can stoke inflation concerns and send yields up, putting the squeeze on stocks most exposed to rates. But if the Hormuz situation resolves quickly, that energy rally can disappear just as fast, exposing a market that’s already looking shaky in banks and tech.
Monday kicks off with crude, as markets get their first shot at pricing in the weekend’s surprise. By Friday, March 6, attention shifts to U.S. payrolls. Traders will also be listening to what companies reveal in early March about demand and costs, searching for the next sign on TSX price direction.
