Trade Truce, Tech Triumphs & Oil Drama: Global Business Bombshells (Aug 11–12, 2025)

Finance

Australia Slashes Rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% on Tuesday – its third cut this year – citing cooling inflation and a dip in economic momentum reuters.com reuters.com. Governor Michele Bullock signaled that further easing may be on the horizon, saying forecasts imply rates “might need to be a bit lower… to keep inflation low and stable and employment growing” amid lingering uncertainties reuters.com. The Australian dollar slipped about 0.2% on the move, and major Aussie banks swiftly passed on the cut to borrowers by lowering home loan rates reuters.com.

China’s Deflation Jitters: New data from China underscored persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Factory-gate prices fell 3.6% in July year-on-year – the steepest drop in nearly two years – while consumer prices were flat, missing expectations of a slight uptick reuters.com reuters.com. Analysts noted that sluggish domestic demand and a prolonged property downturn are weighing on prices, warning that without fresh stimulus or reforms to boost spending, “it is still unclear if this is the end of deflation in China” reuters.com reuters.com. Beijing has pledged targeted measures to stabilize key industries, but confidence remains fragile as core inflation (excluding food and energy) only rose 0.8% – a 17-month high, yet still modest reuters.com.

Fed Watch in Focus: In the United States, attention turned to a crucial inflation report due Tuesday, with investors hoping for signs of further cooling. July’s CPI data will feed into expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates later this year. Markets are 90% convinced of a Fed rate cut in September, pricing in at least two quarter-point reductions by year-end reuters.com, even as core inflation likely remains around 3% – above the Fed’s 2% target reuters.com. Any upside surprise in inflation would challenge these dovish bets, though recent softening in job growth has bolstered the case for easing. “Lower inflationary readings and slower growth numbers are needed to support the case for lower rates,” noted Eric Teal of Comerica Wealth Management reuters.com, reflecting the cautious optimism in financial circles.

Markets

Stocks Waver on Caution: Global equities seesawed just below record highs as trade and geopolitical crosscurrents kept investors on guard. Wall Street’s main indexes fell modestly on Monday – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each down around 0.3% – amid choppy trading reuters.com. Energy, real estate and tech shares led the declines, while defensive sectors like consumer staples eked gains reuters.com. In Europe, the STOXX 600 barely budged (−0.06%) reuters.com, and MSCI’s all-world index held near its peak reuters.com. “At the surface level, the market is flat and calm… in wait-and-see mode to see the data we get tomorrow,” observed Wasif Latif of Sarmaya Partners. “When you look underneath… you’re getting a little bit more of a selloff,” he added, reflecting jitters beneath the calm facade reuters.com reuters.com.

Trade Truce and Tensions: Developments in Washington and Moscow loomed large. U.S. President Donald Trump extended a tariff truce with China by 90 days, just hours before steep import duties were set to triple, averting an immediate escalation in the trade war reuters.com. The reprieve buoyed sentiment in Asia – Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.2% on Tuesday to 42,718, its highest close ever reuters.com, as Tokyo markets reopened after a holiday. The Nikkei’s tech-heavy rally was led by SoftBank Group (up 6.9% to a historic peak) after news that SoftBank is prepping a U.S. listing for its PayPay fintech unit reuters.com reuters.com. Other major indexes across Asia also climbed after the tariff pause reuters.com. Still, some experts warn the euphoria may be short-lived. “The Nikkei could soon peak as technology shares that led Wall Street’s rally have slowed down,” cautioned Takamasa Ikeda of GCI Asset Management reuters.com, noting that Japanese chip and auto stocks had previously lagged and could cap further gains.

Bonds and Commodities: In bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields pulled back slightly on safe-haven demand – the 10-year yield dipped to ~4.28% – amid the cautious equity mood reuters.com. Gold prices slid about 1.5%, reflecting an unwinding of risk hedges as investors anticipated smoother geopolitics ahead reuters.com. Notably, Trump signaled that no new tariffs would hit imported gold, which helped knock U.S. gold futures down 2.5% reuters.com. On the geopolitical front, eyes are on an upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska to discuss Ukraine; this kept markets sensitive to any headlines hinting at easing tensions or, conversely, breakdowns in talks reuters.com reuters.com. Overall, the tone in markets is one of cautious optimism – buoyed by trade peace and central bank support – yet tempered by looming diplomatic wildcards.

Technology

AI Chip Showdown: The tech sector grappled with the fallout of unprecedented U.S. controls on advanced semiconductors. In a controversial move, President Trump suggested he may allow Nvidia to sell a “somewhat…enhanced-in-a-negative-way” version of its next-generation Blackwell AI chip to China – essentially a scaled-down model with 30–50% of the full power reuters.com reuters.com. This would relax an export ban to appease Beijing, even as Washington hawks fear China could still harness U.S. AI hardware for its military. Critics were alarmed: “Even with scaled-down versions of flagship Nvidia chips, China could buy enough of them to build world-leading… AI supercomputers,” warned Saif Khan, a former White House tech security official reuters.com. At the same time, the Trump administration confirmed an unprecedented deal forcing Nvidia and AMD to hand over 15% of revenue from certain China chip sales to the U.S. government reuters.com. Industry analysts said this effectively acts like a levy on critical tech exports and could squeeze chipmakers’ margins reuters.com reuters.com. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has reportedly been lobbying against overly strict curbs – even meeting Trump to pitch the toned-down chip – as the company insists it follows all U.S. rules reuters.com reuters.com.

Surging Chip Demand Boosts Outlooks: Despite policy turbulence, the AI boom is filling chipmakers’ order books. Memory giant Micron Technology raised its revenue and profit forecasts for the current quarter, citing “surging demand” for the high-bandwidth memory chips that power AI data centers reuters.com. The company now projects about $11.2 billion in sales, up from ~$10.7 billion previously, and slightly higher profit margins, thanks to improved pricing for DRAM chips reuters.com. “We look at all of our end markets… pricing trends have been robust, and we have had great success in pushing pricing up,” said Micron’s Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana, highlighting how AI-driven demand and tight supply are allowing what was once a commoditized industry to regain pricing power reuters.com. Micron shares jumped ~3% on the news reuters.com, and analysts noted this marks a historic shift – after years of razor-thin margins, memory makers are now riding the AI wave to fatter profits reuters.com. In related news, Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan was spotted at the White House on Monday amid reports of tensions with the administration. Intel stock rallied 3.5% after word got out that Tan had arrived for talks reuters.com, just days after Trump had publicly called for his removal over disagreements in tech policy. The surprise meeting suggested a possible truce, even as it underscored the intense political scrutiny over tech leadership and strategy.

Energy

Oil Steadies Ahead of Peace Talks: Energy markets were caught between supply curbs and diplomatic drama. Brent crude oil settled essentially flat at $66.63 a barrel on Monday reuters.com, pausing after last week’s 4% tumble as traders awaited a high-stakes summit on the Ukraine war. Trump is set to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to negotiate an end to the conflict – a meeting with massive implications for oil flows reuters.com. The U.S. has warned of harsher sanctions if Moscow refuses peace, while pressuring allies like India to scale back purchases of Russian crude reuters.com reuters.com. Trump even suggested Ukraine and Russia “would have to cede land to each other” as part of a deal reuters.com. This geopolitical tightrope has kept oil prices in check. “The recent sell-off in crude has paused as markets await Friday’s high-stakes meeting,” noted Alex Hodes, an analyst at StoneX, adding that traders are in a holding pattern reuters.com. On the supply side, OPEC+ output rose slightly in July, but production gains were limited by unexpected outages and by Iraq cutting extra barrels to compensate for overproduction reuters.com. Indeed, UBS cut its Brent forecast to $62 (from $68) citing higher-than-expected output from sources like South America and resilient flows from sanctioned countries reuters.com. With opposing forces tugging at the market – OPEC restraining supply versus a possible flood of oil if a Ukraine peace is struck – volatility is high. “That balance… has oil bouncing around like a yo-yo right now,” observed Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group, characterizing the push-pull dynamic in crude prices reuters.com.

Wind Power Faces Crosswinds: The renewable energy sector saw a stark reminder of political risk. Ørsted A/S, the world’s largest offshore wind developer, stunned investors by announcing a $9.4 billion rights issue – roughly half its market value – to shore up its U.S. projects reuters.com reuters.com. The Danish company’s shares plunged almost 30% to record lows on Monday’s news reuters.com. Ørsted’s move comes after potential partners pulled out of its planned Sunrise Wind farm off New York, unnerved by President Trump’s hostility toward wind energy reuters.com reuters.com. (On his first day back in office in January, Trump suspended offshore wind permits, arguing the industry is costly and harms wildlife reuters.com.) “Ørsted and our industry are in an extraordinary situation with the adverse market development in the U.S. on top of the past years’… challenges,” said CEO Rasmus Errboe, describing the dual blow of inflation and unfavorable policy reuters.com. The massive capital raise – underwritten by banks like Morgan Stanley to ensure success reuters.com reuters.com – will bolster Ørsted’s balance sheet through 2027 and keep its American wind farms moving forward. Denmark’s government, Ørsted’s majority owner, affirmed it will maintain its stake, signaling confidence despite the headwinds reuters.com reuters.com. The episode has rattled the broader offshore wind industry, which was already struggling with rising costs, and now faces a much more uncertain U.S. regulatory climate.

(Elsewhere in energy, U.S. LNG developer NextDecade inched closer to a new export terminal, securing $1.8 billion in financing from France’s TotalEnergies and Global Infrastructure Partners to build a fourth liquefaction plant at its Rio Grande project in Texas reuters.com. And ExxonMobil announced that its Guyana venture started oil production four months ahead of schedule, expanding output capacity in the booming Guyanese oilfields reuters.com.)

Corporate Affairs

• SoftBank Eyes a PayPay IPO: Japan’s tech conglomerate SoftBank Group saw its stock jump nearly 7% after reports that it is lining up banks for a U.S. listing of its mobile payments unit, PayPay reuters.com reuters.com. The anticipated IPO of PayPay – a popular digital wallet in Japan – would mark one of SoftBank’s biggest overseas listings and fuel optimism about unlocking value from its portfolio.
• Paramount’s $7.7 Billion UFC Deal: In a blockbuster sports media move, Paramount Global agreed to pay $7.7 billion for exclusive U.S. broadcast rights to UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) events for the next seven years reuters.com. The rich deal underscores the soaring value of live sports content. Shares of TKO Group – the parent company of UFC – surged 10% on the news reuters.com, as investors cheered the long-term revenue boost. The agreement will see UFC fights streamed on Paramount’s platforms, expanding its sports portfolio amid fierce competition for viewers.
• Intel CEO in the Hot Seat: Intel Corporation found itself navigating political turbulence at the top. The chipmaker’s CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, made a surprise visit to the White House on Monday, just days after President Trump publicly called for his ouster reuters.com. Intel’s stock rose 3.5% on speculation that fences might be mended between Tan and the administration reuters.com. Tensions had flared over Intel’s business in China – a point of contention as the U.S. tightens tech exports. Tan’s meeting in Washington suggests a bid to reconcile and reassure the government, as U.S. policymakers keep a close eye on leadership at strategic tech firms. The outcome remains uncertain, but it highlights how corporate governance can become entangled with geopolitics.
• Antitrust Blow to Big Tech: In a landmark legal case down under, an Australian federal court ruled that Apple and Google engaged in anti-competitive conduct in how they operate their app stores abc.net.au. The judge found the tech giants misused their market power – a decision that opens the door for class-action lawsuits on behalf of Australian app developers and consumers. The verdict, stemming from Epic Games’ long-running challenge (after Fortnite was booted from the platforms in 2020), could force Apple and Google to loosen their grip on app payments or pay out significant damages. Advocates hail it as a major win for developers, though the companies are expected to appeal as they face mounting global scrutiny over their app store monopolies.
• Ford Recalls F-150 Trucks: In the automotive arena, Ford Motor Co. announced a recall of over 103,000 F-150 pickup trucks (model years 2023–24) due to faulty rear axle bolts that could break and cause rollaway risks reuters.com. The U.S. safety regulator (NHTSA) flagged that broken bolts might lead to the loss of drive power or the truck rolling while in park. Ford is notifying owners and will replace the defective bolts free of charge. The recall is a reminder of ongoing quality control challenges even as automakers juggle supply chain issues and transition toward new EV models.

Sources: Reuters reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com abc.net.au reuters.com