TSX Week Ahead: Toronto Stock Exchange Outlook for Dec. 15–19, 2025 After Record Highs, BoC Hold and CPI in Focus

Updated: Dec. 14, 2025

Canada’s stock market heads into the new week with the S&P/TSX Composite still near record territory—but with an important reality check right around the corner: inflation data.

The Toronto Stock Exchange benchmark finished Friday at 31,527.39, down 0.4% on the day as technology stocks slid, yet still up 0.7% for the week—a resilient showing after a series of record closes earlier in the week. ^[1]

Now the focus shifts to Canada’s November CPI, due Monday, and what it may signal for the Bank of Canada’s next move (and for rate-sensitive TSX sectors like financials, real estate, and consumer names). ^[2]

Where the TSX stands heading into the week

The TSX has had a standout 2025. Earlier in the week, Reuters noted the index was up more than 25% for the year, positioning it for its best year since 2009. ^[3]

What’s important for the week ahead is that the market’s leadership has broadened beyond a single theme. In fact, the TSX’s four biggest groups—financials, energy, technology, and materials—collectively represent about 77% of the index’s market capitalization, and all have posted gains since the start of 2025. ^[4]

That diversification has helped stabilize Canada’s benchmark through rotations that have been more disruptive elsewhere—especially when global investors start questioning whether tech valuations are running too hot.

Last week’s story (Dec. 8–12): records, rotation, and a tech shakeout

Monday: profit-taking ahead of central bank decisions

The TSX began the week lower as investors booked gains and waited for major rate decisions. The index closed down 0.45% at 31,169.97, pressured by metal and mining shares. ^[5]

A notable corporate highlight: Transcontinental surged after agreeing to sell its packaging unit to ProAmpac in a deal valued at C$2.22 billion including debt, underscoring that deal-making remains active even late in the year. ^[6]

Tuesday: materials lift, silver hits a record, and Teck’s mega-merger advances

The TSX edged up 0.2% to 31,244.37, supported by mining shares as silver jumped to a record. ^[7]

The session also carried major deal news: shareholders approved the previously announced merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, leaving regulatory approvals as the key remaining hurdle. ^[8]

On the growth theme, Reuters also flagged a $20 billion AI infrastructure joint venture involving Brookfield and Qatar-owned AI company Qai, a reminder that global AI capital spending continues to ripple into TSX-linked infrastructure and alternative asset platforms. ^[9]

Wednesday: central banks deliver—TSX breaks to a fresh record close

The week’s major macro event landed Wednesday. The TSX jumped 0.8% to a record close of 31,490.85 after both the Bank of Canada held and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point and signaled a likely pause in further reductions. ^[10]

Financials rose (including a strong move in Toronto-Dominion Bank), while Shopify helped drive technology higher on the day. ^[11]

Thursday: metals power another record; “AI bubble” worries re-emerge

The TSX notched yet another record close, finishing up 0.5% at 31,660.73, as rising metal prices pushed materials higher. ^[12]

But even in a record-setting session, the tape showed tension: technology declined as Oracle’s results revived broader concerns about an AI-driven valuation bubble. ^[13]

Friday: tech slides, cannabis surges, and CPI becomes the next catalyst

Friday’s pullback had a clear driver: tech weakness. The technology sector fell 3.4%, with Celestica down 12.9%. ^[14]

At the same time, healthcare became the standout, surging 8.9%, as Curaleaf jumped 37.8% after a Washington Post report suggested U.S. President Donald Trump was expected to push for dramatically looser federal restrictions on marijuana. ^[15]

That kind of cross-sector divergence is exactly what makes the upcoming week pivotal: investors are still willing to rotate risk—but macro data will determine which rotations stick.

The Bank of Canada’s message: “about the right level,” but watch inflation choppiness

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Dec. 10 (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit rate 2.20%). ^[16]

In its statement, the BoC emphasized:

Canada’s economy grew 2.6% in Q3, though it noted the gain largely reflected volatile trade dynamics. ^[17]
The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November, with hiring still subdued in trade-sensitive sectors. ^[18]
CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, while core measures remained in the 2.5%–3% range; the Bank assessed underlying inflation around 2.5%. ^[19]

Crucially, the BoC said that if the outlook evolves broadly in line with its October projection, the current policy rate is “about the right level”—a message markets read as reinforcing an extended hold. ^[20]

Reuters also reported that expectations for BoC hikes in 2026 were dialed back after the decision. ^[21]

The big Monday test: Canada’s November CPI

Canada’s November CPI print (Monday) is the key domestic catalyst for TSX trading in the week ahead.

Market expectations cited by Reuters point to inflation rising to 2.3% year over year, up from 2.2% in October. ^[22]

But forecasts vary slightly among major forecasters:

RBC expects headline CPI to hold at 2.2% in November, with CPI excluding food and energy at 2.7%, arguing energy inflation remains deeply negative partly due to last spring’s end of consumer carbon surcharges. ^[23]
CIBC expects CPI to tick up to 2.3% y/y, and stresses that a small headline move could mask a firmer seasonally adjusted trend, with rent still a strong contributor. ^[24]
Scotiabank also points to a potential move up to 2.3%, framing CPI as one of the last major inputs before the BoC’s next decision window. ^[25]

Why CPI matters more than usual right now

The TSX is near record highs, and the rate narrative has shifted from “how many more cuts?” to “how long does the hold last?” The CPI print has the potential to change three prices at once:

Canadian bond yields (which feed into bank margins and equity discount rates)
The Canadian dollar (important for exporters and commodity-linked earnings translations)
Sector leadership (materials and financials vs. tech and consumer discretionary)

Retail sales, the consumer, and a Dollarama signal investors are watching

Beyond inflation, the week also brings Canada retail sales (October) later in the week, a key read on real-world demand as households adjust to “higher for longer” costs. ^[26]

CIBC expects a flat headline reading for October retail trade, noting that lower gasoline prices could make the report look firmer in volume terms—and that improving labour market conditions could support a modest gain in the November flash estimate. ^[27]

On the corporate side, Dollarama raised its outlook after beating estimates, citing continued demand from price-sensitive shoppers; it lifted expected Canadian comparable sales growth to 4.2%–4.7% (from 3%–4%) and raised its annual margin target range. ^[28]

For TSX investors, Dollarama’s update matters beyond one stock: it’s a live read on how Canadians are coping with inflation—trading down, shifting baskets, and prioritizing essentials.

Currency and rates: the loonie’s quiet tailwind

The Canadian dollar posted its third straight weekly gain, supported by expectations that Canada’s policy path may diverge from the U.S. as the BoC holds steady. Reuters reported the loonie near 1.3765 per U.S. dollar and at its strongest since September. ^[29]

Desjardins adds a longer-horizon layer to the FX story, forecasting USD/CAD at 1.35 by year-end 2026, while warning that the path could be bumpy—particularly around trade headlines and political noise. ^[30]

For the TSX, a firmer loonie can be a double-edged sword:

It can signal confidence in Canada’s macro stability (supportive for domestic cyclicals).
But it can also pressure exporters and translate into softer CAD-reported earnings for companies with big U.S. revenue bases.

Sector watch for the TSX: what could lead (or lag) next week?

Materials: still the market’s momentum engine

Materials helped drive the TSX’s record run last week. Reuters noted the materials group rose 3.1% Thursday, and that it has nearly doubled year-to-date, supported by rising gold and copper prices. ^[31]

TD Economics’ December forecast deck reinforces why miners remain central to the TSX narrative: TD sees elevated precious metals prices, with silver and gold projected to remain historically high into 2026 (forecast tables show very strong levels versus long-run averages). ^[32]

What to watch this week:

CPI-driven moves in yields and the U.S. dollar (important for gold)
Any renewed surge in industrial metals on China or global growth headlines

Energy: oil remains a headwind, not a tailwind

Energy lagged on multiple days last week, with Reuters citing oil settling around the high-$50s per barrel in key sessions. ^[33]

TD’s commodity outlook points to relatively moderate crude pricing near term, which may limit upside torque for Canadian energy equities into early 2026. ^[34]

What to watch:

Crude price reaction to geopolitical headlines
The loonie (energy is a major export channel)

Financials: clarity is supportive—but macro data will decide the next leg

Financials remain the TSX’s anchor. They benefited midweek after the BoC held steady and markets reduced expectations for near-term hikes. ^[35]

What to watch:

CPI and yields: steeper curves can help margins, but inflation surprises can also revive credit worries
Housing and consumer health indicators (important into early 2026)

Technology: valuation sensitivity is back in the spotlight

The late-week selloff showed how quickly sentiment can turn. Tech fell 3.4% Friday, with Celestica’s sharp decline a focal point. ^[36]

Even if the longer-term AI buildout trend remains intact, the near-term trade may hinge on yields and “bubble” narratives—especially as investors rotate between growth and cyclicals.

What to watch:

CPI surprises that move long-term rates
Any follow-through from global AI infrastructure spend stories (which can support select Canadian supply-chain names)

Cannabis and healthcare: a reminder that policy headlines still move prices

Curaleaf’s jump on U.S. regulatory expectations was one of the clearest examples last week of headline-driven upside. ^[37]

This corner of the market can remain volatile, especially if new reports add detail—or if expectations cool.

Week-ahead calendar: the events most likely to move Canadian stocks

Here are the catalysts most likely to matter for the TSX this week, based on the major bank previews and market commentary released during Dec. 8–14:

Monday: Canada CPI (November)—the central macro catalyst for rate expectations and sector leadership ^[38]
Later in the week: Canada retail sales (October)—key read on consumer resilience and “trade-down” trends ^[39]
Ongoing: Commodity price direction (gold/copper for materials; oil for energy) remains a primary TSX driver ^[40]

A practical way to frame the TSX into the new week

The TSX enters the week with two narratives in tension:

“The rally still has legs.” Record highs, broad sector participation, and expectations that policy is on hold have supported risk-taking. ^[41]
“The market is priced for good news.” Friday’s tech drop showed how quickly expensive areas can correct when yields rise or bubble fears return. ^[42]

That’s why Monday’s CPI matters. If inflation behaves “as expected,” the TSX may return to a rotation-and-grind-higher pattern into year-end. If inflation surprises (up or down), the bigger move may be in which sectors lead, not necessarily whether the whole index rises or falls.

Bottom line: Canada’s inflation print is the TSX’s next checkpoint

After a week that included multiple record closes, a central bank hold in Ottawa, and another rate cut in the U.S., the Toronto Stock Exchange now faces a more direct test: Can inflation cool enough to justify the market’s confidence—without reigniting rate fears? ^[43]

The TSX’s breadth—especially the combined strength across financials, materials, energy, and technology—has been a defining feature of 2025. ^[44]

This week will reveal whether that breadth holds through the next macro headline—and whether Canada’s stock market heads into late December with a tailwind, or with a new reason to rethink the pace of the rally.