WASHINGTON — December 18, 2025 — The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November 2025 is due this morning, delivering the first official, broad look at inflation since a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted economic data collection and left policymakers and markets operating with a partial view of price pressures. Economists expect inflation to tick higher to 3.1% year over year, while “core” inflation (excluding food and energy) is forecast to hold around 3.0%—a mix that underscores how difficult it has been to steer inflation back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. [1]
But this isn’t a normal CPI day. Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) couldn’t collect October price data during the shutdown, today’s release will come with unusual gaps that complicate the clean month-to-month story investors and households typically rely on. In other words: the headline number will matter, but how you interpret it may matter even more. [2]
Why today’s CPI report is “different” (and why that matters)
The government shutdown forced the BLS to cancel the October 2025 CPI report, and the agency says the missing observations can’t be fully reconstructed retroactively. As a result, today’s November CPI report will not include one-month percent changes for November “where the October 2025 data are missing,” and only a small number of October component indexes may be published where non-survey sources can be used. The BLS has also warned it cannot provide specific guidance for navigating the missing October data—an unusually blunt caveat for one of the most closely watched economic releases in the world. [3]
That’s a big deal for markets because the CPI’s month-to-month changes are often where turning points show up first. Without them, economists say the best approach is to lean more heavily on year-over-year comparisons and, where possible, consider broader “two-month” changes rather than a single month’s move. [4]
What economists expect from November CPI: inflation at an 18-month high
The consensus expectation heading into today’s release is for CPI to rise 3.1% from a year earlier, which would be the highest annual pace since May 2024. Core CPI is expected to run at about 3.0% year over year, still well above the Fed’s target and consistent with the story that inflation has cooled from its peak—but has not been fully tamed. [5]
Because the month-to-month CPI changes are likely to be limited or missing in key places, economists and traders are expected to dig into the remaining details for evidence of whether inflation pressures are staying concentrated in a handful of categories or spreading more broadly—often a sign that inflation could persist longer. Categories to watch include shelter, medical care, and services, which tend to move more slowly than goods prices and can keep inflation sticky even when other prices cool. [6]
Tariffs are back in the inflation conversation—especially for goods
One reason today’s CPI report is attracting extra attention is the ongoing debate over how much import tariffs are feeding into consumer prices. Economists cited by Reuters describe tariff-related costs increasingly being passed through to consumers, particularly by goods-producing companies, after earlier buffering effects—like inventory stockpiling—faded over time. [7]
Some analysts estimate that retailers had passed on a significant share of the tariff burden by early fall and expect that pass-through to rise further into early 2026. The practical result is a familiar one: higher price pressure in everyday goods can weigh most heavily on households with the least financial cushion, especially when wage growth is slower at the lower end of the income scale. [8]
A holiday-season “discount effect” could muddy the signal
Adding to the uncertainty, economists have flagged a possible distortion unique to this shutdown-delayed report: because data collection ran later into the month than usual, the survey may have captured more of the late-month holiday discounting period. That could temporarily make some goods categories appear softer than they would in a typical November report—potentially setting up a rebound in December if those discounts fade. [9]
This matters because markets often react to the CPI print immediately, even though the context behind the number may be unusually important today. [10]
The Fed’s balancing act: inflation still high, labor market cooling
The Federal Reserve enters the CPI release in a tricky position. Policymakers have cut interest rates at three consecutive meetings since September, bringing the federal funds rate to a 3.50%–3.75% range, while signaling they may pause further cuts as they wait for clearer evidence on inflation and the labor market. [11]
Some officials and analysts worry that allowing inflation to run above target for too long risks eroding the Fed’s credibility. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has warned publicly about the credibility cost of repeatedly missing the inflation target over an extended period—especially if high inflation becomes embedded in expectations. [12]
At the same time, another camp argues the inflation outlook could improve in the next several months. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking this week, suggested inflation could begin to fall over the next three to four months and that rates could come down at a moderate pace—comments that highlight how wide the range of views remains inside the Fed. [13]
The shutdown’s shadow: the labor market data came with an “asterisk,” too
Inflation isn’t the only dataset affected by the shutdown. The same lapse in appropriations disrupted October labor market data, and the BLS did not publish an October Employment Situation report. In the delayed November employment report released earlier this week, the BLS reported:
- Unemployment rate:4.6% in November
- Payroll growth:+64,000 jobs in November
- October household survey data were not collected during the shutdown, so comparisons often reference September rather than October. [14]
The topline takeaway: job creation has cooled notably, and the unemployment rate has moved higher compared with last year—an important reason the Fed has become more sensitive to downside labor-market risks even as inflation remains elevated. [15]
Markets today: stock futures edge up as investors brace for CPI
Ahead of the CPI release, U.S. stock index futures were modestly higher in premarket trading, reflecting a market trying to stabilize after recent volatility while still awaiting clarity on inflation and rates. Reuters reported:
- Dow futures: +0.13%
- S&P 500 futures: +0.41%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.75% [16]
Micron was a notable bright spot in premarket trading after issuing strong profit guidance, helping temporarily ease anxiety around stretched valuations in parts of the technology sector—particularly as the market continues to debate whether the AI boom is turning into an AI bubble. [17]
Meanwhile, global investors are also navigating a busy central bank calendar abroad, and currency markets have been sensitive to shifting rate expectations. Reuters noted the dollar was broadly firm as traders weighed major central bank decisions and the global rate outlook—another reminder that today’s CPI print could ripple far beyond U.S. borders. [18]
What to watch inside the CPI report (given the data gaps)
Because month-to-month CPI changes will be limited by the missing October base, attention is likely to center on a few practical questions:
Is inflation still being driven mainly by a few sticky categories—or spreading?
Shelter and services inflation have been persistent focal points, and economists will look for signs those pressures are easing or broadening. [19]
Do tariffs appear to be showing up more clearly in consumer prices?
The key issue is not just whether inflation is high, but why—and whether goods prices are reaccelerating as businesses pass through tariff costs. [20]
Was November “artificially soft” because of holiday discounts?
If price collection skewed toward discount-heavy periods late in the month, some categories could look cooler now and bounce later—raising the risk of misreading the trend. [21]
What comes next: when the inflation picture could get clearer
Economists cited by The Washington Post suggested the inflation trend may become easier to interpret once several months of uninterrupted data are in hand. One analyst put it bluntly: “Check back in February” for a clearer direction once more data accumulates. [22]
The broader data calendar also reflects ongoing shutdown-related disruption. The BLS has published revised release guidance noting delays and cancellations for multiple series, including price and wage data tied to CPI inputs. [23]
And while CPI is the headline today, investors and the Fed also watch other inflation measures. Reuters has noted that producer-price and personal-consumption inflation reporting has been affected by the shutdown schedule as well—adding to the sense that policymakers are making decisions with an imperfect dashboard. [24]
The bottom line for consumers: inflation is still the political and economic pressure point
Whether you’re shopping for groceries, renewing a lease, or trying to stretch holiday spending, the core storyline remains: inflation has cooled from the worst of the post-pandemic surge, but it has also proven stubbornly persistent—and the unusual data limitations caused by the shutdown mean today’s CPI won’t answer every question. [25]
For the Fed, that raises the stakes. A hotter-than-expected print could reinforce arguments for holding rates higher for longer, while a softer reading—especially one potentially influenced by discount timing—could intensify the debate over whether rate cuts should resume in 2026. Either way, today’s CPI report is set to be one of the most consequential (and most complicated) economic releases of the year. [26]
References
1. www.washingtonpost.com, 2. www.bls.gov, 3. www.bls.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.washingtonpost.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.washingtonpost.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.bls.gov, 15. www.bls.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.washingtonpost.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.washingtonpost.com, 23. www.bls.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.washingtonpost.com, 26. www.reuters.com
