New York, March 6, 2026, 07:21 EST
U.S. stock index futures slipped ahead of Friday’s open, with the war involving Iran continuing to lift oil prices and stoke inflation fears. Shares of American Airlines dropped around 1% in premarket action, while Marvell Technology surged 12% on the back of a bullish long-term sales outlook. Occidental Petroleum advanced 2%. Despite all this, Wall Street still outperformed both Europe and Asia for the week. The Nasdaq managed to stay positive on the week, bolstered by a turnaround in tech stocks and optimism that the U.S.—thanks to its net oil exporter status—might weather the shock better than others.
That’s coming into focus as investors approach Friday’s U.S. jobs report, rate-cut expectations already scaled back. Traders have nudged the likely timing of the next Federal Reserve move to September or October, according to LSEG figures cited by Reuters. Now markets are pricing just 40 basis points—0.40 percentage point—of Fed cuts for this year, sharply lower than the 59 basis points in play before the conflict.
Losses elsewhere have piled up. Europe’s STOXX 600 tumbled nearly 5% for the week—its sharpest slide in close to a year. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan was staring at a 6% weekly drop, the worst since March 2020. Analysts pointed out that Europe’s deeper reliance on imported Middle Eastern energy left it especially exposed.
Thursday’s numbers told the story: the Dow skidded 784.67 points, or 1.61%. S&P 500 dropped 0.56%. Nasdaq edged down by 0.26%. Over in commodities, U.S. crude finished at $81.01 per barrel, Brent at $85.41. “Look at oil today,” said Michael Antonelli, a market strategist with Baird Private Wealth Management. “It tells you everything you need to know.” Reuters
That resilience could get a real test if oil prices don’t let up. Brent’s surged almost 22% this week, U.S. crude even more — up close to 27%. About 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. “Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Reuters
Bond markets are sounding alarms again. U.S. two-year Treasury yields climbed roughly a quarter point this week—the sharpest jump since April 2025. For Berenberg’s chief economist Holger Schmieding, the conflict has already thrown out the idea that energy prices would remain low and steady this year.
Money is moving out of stocks. U.S. equity funds logged net outflows of $21.92 billion for the week ending March 4—marking the largest pullback since Jan. 7, according to LSEG Lipper. Money market funds, on the other hand, brought in $22.51 billion.
Markets snapped back Wednesday on hopes for diplomacy, keeping the Nasdaq above water after the strikes—a reminder of how fast the tone can reverse. Relief buying lifted battered tech names, according to Jim Awad, senior managing director at Clearstead Advisors. But he cautioned investors not to swing “either too bullishly or too bearishly” as everyone waits to see if the conflict escalates or fizzles. Reuters
