U.S. Stocks End Week Mixed as Tech Rebounds Amid Fed Uncertainty

Major U.S. stock indexes closed out a volatile week with a mixed performance on Friday, November 15, 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell modestly while the S&P 500 was essentially flat and the Nasdaq Composite managed a slight gain ^[1]. Investors grappled with shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, a rotation away from high-flying technology stocks, and macroeconomic signals ranging from cooling inflation to the end of a prolonged government shutdown.

Key Takeaways:

Mixed Index Performance: The S&P 500 ended roughly unchanged while the Dow slipped about 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% on Friday ^[2]. All three major indices remain up double-digits year-to-date (Nasdaq +18.6%, S&P +14.5%, Dow +10.8% YTD) despite recent volatility ^[3].
Sector Rotation:Technology and AI stocks faced profit-taking after a strong rally, causing the tech sector to lag in November. Meanwhile, defensive areas like health care, energy, and materials have outperformed this month ^[4] as investors rotate into value and cyclicals.
Fed Policy Uncertainty:Federal Reserve officials signaled caution on rate cuts, sharply reducing the odds of a December interest rate reduction to roughly 50% (down from near 95% a month ago) ^[5]. Inflation remains about 3% – above the Fed’s 2% target ^[6] – and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.15% ^[7], reflecting expectations for higher-for-longer rates.
Notable Movers & Earnings:Disney stock plunged almost 8% after weak streaming results ^[8], weighing on the Dow. Chipmakers and other tech names saw sharp swings (e.g. Nvidia, Oracle, Netflix) amid an “AI bubble” worry ^[9], while surging oil prices boosted energy shares as a Ukrainian attack halted a Russian oil export hub (about 2% of global supply) ^[10].
Improving Sentiment & Outlook: The resolution of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown removed a major overhang ^[11], though it likely trimmed Q4 economic growth to ~1.0–1.5% ^[12]. With crucial economic data set to resume and big-name earnings (e.g. Home Depot, Nvidia, Walmart) due next week ^[13], analysts anticipate continued short-term volatility but no prolonged downturn, especially as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady into year-end ^[14] ^[15].

Major Indexes Post Mixed Finish

Wall Street’s closing numbers reflected a mixed finish to the week. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.65%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.13% ^[16]. The Dow underperformed in part due to declines in heavyweight components like Walt Disney Co., which has been under pressure after disappointing earnings. In contrast, a midday rebound in technology shares helped the Nasdaq squeak out a gain.

Despite the day’s tepid moves, equities have seen significant volatility in recent sessions. Thursday saw a sharp sell-off – the S&P 500 plunged 1.7% in its worst day in about a month – as investors reacted to hawkish Fed commentary and took profits in overextended tech stocks ^[17]. By Friday, dip-buyers selectively returned, moderating the week’s losses.

Weekly perspective: For the week, the Nasdaq snapped a multi-week winning streak, posting a roughly –0.5% decline, while the S&P 500 rose about +0.1% and the Dow gained +0.3% ^[18]. Even with the late-week turbulence, all three indices remain firmly higher year-to-date (led by the Nasdaq’s nearly 19% gain) ^[19], underscoring that the market’s broader uptrend is intact.

Sector Performance: Tech Lags as Energy and Healthcare Lead

This week underscored a rotation in market leadership. The previously high-flying technology sector stumbled, showing signs of fatigue after an extraordinary run. Since the spring, the tech-heavy Nasdaq had rallied about 55% off its April lows, leaving valuations stretched ^[20]. Now, with the Fed signaling rates may stay elevated, traders have been trimming positions in pricey growth and AI-focused names. Information technology and related sectors (like consumer discretionary, which houses many internet and retail tech giants) have underperformed in November, while more value-oriented sectors have outpaced the market ^[21].

On Thursday’s drop, chipmakers and software stocks were hit particularly hard. Market favorites tied to the AI boom saw significant selling – Nvidia sank roughly 3.6%, Broadcom fell 4.3%, and Oracle lost 4.2% in one session ^[22] – amid growing chatter of an “AI valuation bubble.” Even after rebounding Friday, the tech sector ended the week lower. By contrast, defensive sectors found support: investors rotated into areas like health care, industrials, energy, and materials, which outperformed in November as a whole ^[23].

Energy stocks in particular caught a bid as oil prices surged to multi-month highs. U.S. WTI crude oil jumped about 2.4% on Friday to over $60 a barrel ^[24] – its highest level in several months – after geopolitical news raised supply concerns. (A Ukrainian attack temporarily shut down a Russian Black Sea export terminal, disrupting roughly 2% of global oil supply ^[25].) This boost in crude prices lifted oil & gas equities and helped the S&P 500 Energy sector outperform the broader market. Likewise, healthcare and materials benefited from investors seeking quality companies with stable earnings and reasonable valuations, amid the uncertainty in high-tech names.

Notable Stock Movers and Earnings News

Several high-profile stocks saw significant movement on the week’s news flow:

Disney Disappoints: The Walt Disney Co. (a Dow component) was a major drag on the blue-chip index. Disney’s shares plunged 7.8% after the entertainment giant reported mixed quarterly results and softer streaming subscriber growth ^[26]. The steep decline – Disney’s worst one-day drop in over a year – reflected investor concern over the company’s struggling Disney+ streaming unit and broader challenges in its media business. Disney’s slump contributed heavily to the Dow’s losses and dampened consumer discretionary sector performance.
Tech Titans Turbulence: Mega-cap tech names experienced turbulence amid the broader sector pullback. For instance, Netflix stock tumbled over 3.5% ^[27] by week’s end, and Alphabet (Google) slid nearly 0.8% ^[28] on Friday, as investors rotated out of some 2025’s best performers. Apple – the market’s largest company – also saw modest declines (down about 0.2% Friday ^[29]), continuing a trend of relative weakness in November as questions mount about high valuations and consumer demand. On a brighter note, Nvidia shares rebounded about +1.8% Friday ^[30] after Thursday’s drop, suggesting bargain hunters are stepping in ahead of the chipmaker’s earnings report next week.
Semiconductor Earnings: The semiconductor sector offered mixed signals. Chip-equipment maker Applied Materials posted better-than-expected earnings results, but management struck a cautious tone about weakness in China and uncertain chip demand. The stock traded lower despite the profit beat ^[31], indicating that geopolitical trade headwinds (such as U.S.–China tech tensions) remain a concern for chip-related companies. The market’s reaction suggests investors are looking past backward-looking earnings beats and focusing on forward guidance, especially in sectors exposed to global supply chains.
Buffett’s Big Bet on Google: In a late-breaking development after Friday’s close, Berkshire Hathaway (led by Warren Buffett) disclosed a new $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet, Google’s parent company ^[32]. Alphabet is now among Berkshire’s top ten equity holdings. At the same time, Berkshire trimmed its Apple stake by 15% during the third quarter ^[33], continuing a gradual reduction of its position in the iPhone maker. Buffett’s surprising move into Alphabet – a company he had long avoided – and the scaling back of the massive Apple position underscore a shifting strategy at the famed conglomerate. This news could influence Alphabet and Apple shares when trading resumes, as investors digest Buffett’s latest portfolio updates (the filing is notably the last before Buffett plans to step down as CEO after a 60-year tenure).
Other Movers: Electric automaker Tesla saw relatively modest moves (around +0.6% on Friday) ^[34] after a bullish long-term forecast from a prominent investor, while Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba faced pressure on reports of U.S. scrutiny (the White House accused Alibaba of aiding China’s military, hitting its shares) ^[35]. In the financial sector, bank stocks were steady even as bond yields fluctuated, and small-cap shares rallied mid-week on hopes of economic resilience post-shutdown.

Macroeconomic Data and Fed Policy Developments

Inflation and Fed outlook: Fresh macroeconomic data and Fed commentary drove much of the week’s market sentiment. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings show annual inflation running around 3%, roughly level with the prior month and up from the summer lows. While this is a marked improvement from the high inflation of 2022–2023, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and policymakers made clear they are not yet satisfied ^[36]. Notably, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he still views ~3% inflation as too high and is undecided on supporting a rate cut at the next meeting ^[37]. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed that sentiment, rejecting any notion of raising the 2% inflation goal and emphasizing that the Fed’s job is not done until price stability is assured ^[38].

Several other Fed officials struck a hawkish tone in public remarks, urging caution about easing policy too soon ^[39]. This drumbeat of Fed speak had a tangible effect on interest rate expectations. As recently as a few weeks ago, markets were almost certain the Fed would cut rates in December – but those odds have plunged. The CME FedWatch tool now shows roughly a 50–60% probability of a quarter-point cut at the December FOMC meeting, down from about 90–95% odds just one month ago ^[40] ^[41]. In other words, investors are no longer betting on an imminent rate reduction, anticipating that the Fed will likely hold its policy rate steady into early 2026 ^[42]. Indeed, many analysts (and futures markets) now expect no rate cut at the December meeting, with the first easing move pushed out to perhaps Q1 or Q2 of 2026 ^[43].

Yields and dollar: Bond markets reflected this shifting outlook. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield oscillated in a range but ended around 4.15% ^[44], little changed on the week. Shorter-term yields ticked up slightly, as traders priced in a longer period of elevated Fed rates. The yield curve remains inverted (with 3-month T-bills near 3.9% and 10-year notes ~4.1% ^[45] ^[46]), though the inversion has narrowed somewhat. The U.S. dollar index held firm around the 99 level ^[47], supported by those higher U.S. yields and safe-haven flows amid global uncertainties.

Growth and jobs: Macroeconomic signals are mixed. The end of the federal shutdown means the flow of government economic reports will resume, but delays have created a temporary “data desert” for policymakers and investors ^[48]. In the absence of official figures, private-sector data suggest the economy is growing at a lukewarm pace ^[49] ^[50]. Manufacturing activity remains soft – the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October slipped further below 50, indicating contraction – whereas the services sector is still expanding modestly (ISM Services PMI held above 52) ^[51].

Labor market indicators point to some cooling in employment. The Labor Department’s October jobs report was delayed by the shutdown, but ADP’s private payrolls report showed only +42,000 jobs added in October, a very modest gain that followed a couple of months of private-sector job losses ^[52]. This deceleration in hiring aligns with other signs that labor demand is softening (e.g. higher jobless claims and more companies pausing hiring) even as the unemployment rate remains historically low. Wage growth has also shown signs of leveling off, which could help ease inflation pressures going forward.

Consumer confidence has become a concern: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for early November fell to its lowest level since mid-2022, and near an all-time low in the index’s history ^[53]. Americans are feeling pessimistic about the economy, citing high prices and political uncertainty. Such grim sentiment, if sustained, could potentially weigh on consumer spending during the critical holiday season. Nonetheless, consumer spending has proven resilient so far, supported by a strong job market and excess savings, so it will be important to monitor upcoming retail sales data for any crack in the consumer outlook.

Fed’s next move: The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory is now a central question for the market. With inflation trending down from prior peaks but still above target, Fed officials are emphasizing a patient approach. The consensus on Wall Street is that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its final 2025 meeting in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in recent comments, stressed that the Fed can afford to wait for more data to ensure inflation is truly defeated before considering rate cuts. Barring any drastic change in the economic data, the first rate cut is not expected until sometime in the first half of 2026 ^[54]. This “higher for longer” messaging has injected some caution into equity markets, particularly for high-PE growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.

At the same time, there is a growing sense that the Fed’s tightening cycle is done – the central bank has held its benchmark rate in the 5.25–5.50% range since mid-2024, and inflation has roughly halved since its peak. If incoming data confirm that price pressures are easing and growth is not faltering too badly, the Fed could pivot to rate cuts later next year. The prospect of an eventual easing, even if delayed, underpins some optimism that the current bull market in stocks can continue. Notably, market strategists point out that historically, bull markets typically end only when the Fed is aggressively tightening or when the economy enters a recession, and neither scenario appears to be on the immediate horizon ^[55]. That gives investors hope that equities can navigate the current wall of worries without a severe downturn.

Geopolitical and Financial Events Shaping Sentiment

Beyond the Fed and macro data, several policy and geopolitical developments played into market sentiment:

Government Shutdown Ends: A major overhang was lifted as the 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown – the longest in history – finally came to an end on November 14. President Trump signed a bipartisan funding bill that reopens federal agencies and extends government funding through January 30, 2026 ^[56]. This resolution restores the flow of economic data (important reports on jobs, inflation, etc. will trickle out in coming weeks) and returns hundreds of thousands of federal employees to work with backpay ^[57]. Economists estimate the prolonged shutdown likely shaved between 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP growth ^[58] ^[59] due to delayed spending and lost output, dragging projected Q4 growth down to roughly 1.0–1.5% ^[60]. However, much of that lost activity could be made up in early 2026 as government operations normalize ^[61]. Markets reacted positively to the shutdown’s end, as it removes the immediate risk of a government default or disruption. That said, the stopgap nature of the funding means another budget showdown could occur after January 30 if Congress cannot pass a longer-term appropriations deal, a scenario that investors will be watching in the new year.
Tariff Cuts to Curb Inflation: In a bid to address public concern over high food prices, the White House announced a rollback of tariffs on over 200 imported food and grocery items ^[62]. President Trump’s administration cut duties on staples such as beef, coffee, bananas, and orange juice, aiming to ease inflation at the supermarket. This policy move highlights the political pressure caused by inflation and represents an attempt to directly reduce costs for consumers. While the immediate market impact was limited, the tariff cuts could marginally improve the inflation outlook going into 2026 (lowering prices on everyday goods) and thus factor into the Fed’s considerations. Businesses that rely on imported food inputs may see some cost relief as well. Investors generally view such anti-inflation policy steps favorably, though some note that monetary policy (Fed interest rates) still has the bigger influence on broad inflation trends.
Global Oil Supply Jitters: Geopolitical tensions abroad affected commodity markets, especially oil. Mid-week, news broke that a Ukrainian drone attack forced the shutdown of Russia’s major Black Sea oil export hub at Novorossiysk, halting oil exports and temporarily disrupting about 2% of global supply ^[63]. Oil prices spiked on the development – Brent crude climbed above $64 a barrel (its highest in months) ^[64] – before stabilizing as the port gradually resumed operations. The incident underscored how the ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose supply risks for energy markets. Higher oil prices fed through to higher gasoline prices and bolstered energy company shares, contributing to the energy sector’s outperformance. Separately, the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East remains another source of uncertainty; however, so far it has had a limited direct impact on global financial markets beyond some short-lived volatility in oil and safe-haven assets. Traders are monitoring these flashpoints carefully, as any escalation or new conflict could quickly alter risk sentiment.
Central Bank Independence Concerns: In a development that has caught the attention of economists, recent political comments raised questions about central bank independence in the U.S. and Japan. President Trump has publicly mused about the Federal Reserve’s policy and leadership, fueling speculation about potential pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Similarly, in Japan, new government statements have called into question the future autonomy of the Bank of Japan ^[65]. Historically, any threat to central bank independence is worrisome for inflation and market stability ^[66], as investors fear political interference could lead to looser policy and higher long-term inflation. While no concrete actions have been taken, the mere hint of politicizing central banks introduces a new risk factor. So far, Fed Chair Powell has reiterated the Fed’s commitment to its mandate free of political influence. Market participants largely expect the Fed to remain insulated, but it is an evolving narrative that could influence bond market expectations (e.g. if investors believe political pressure might force earlier rate cuts, that could steepen the yield curve). For now, this issue remains a background concern rather than a driver of day-to-day market moves.
China and Global Growth: Another factor on investors’ radar is the health of the global economy. Recent data from China showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown entering Q4 2025 – for example, Chinese fixed-asset investment contracted by 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year, an unprecedented decline, and industrial output growth decelerated to its weakest pace of 2025 ^[67]. These signs of cooling in the world’s second-largest economy, along with a modest 0.1% GDP uptick in the UK for Q3 (below forecast) ^[68], contributed to a cautious mood in international markets. U.S. investors are mindful that a weakening global backdrop could eventually soften export demand and corporate earnings for multinational companies. So far, the U.S. economy has been relatively insulated, but sectors like materials and industrials are sensitive to global trends and may react to further news of slowing overseas. On the flip side, Europe’s stock markets pulled back from record highs this week, showing that profit-taking isn’t limited to U.S. tech – even abroad, investors are turning more selective amid higher global interest rates ^[69].

In summary, while the macro and geopolitical context is complex, the U.S. stock market has proven resilient. The removal of immediate stressors like the U.S. shutdown and a tentative calming of inflation have provided a foundation for stocks. Yet, ongoing geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties mean investors are navigating a more challenging terrain compared to earlier in the year.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Looking ahead to the coming weeks, market participants expect the tug-of-war between monetary policy signals, economic data, and corporate earnings to continue driving day-to-day volatility. With the Fed’s next meeting about a month away, each new data point will be scrutinized for its implications on inflation and growth. Key economic reports are set to resume now that the government is funded – in the week ahead, important releases on housing, PMI surveys, and consumer sentiment are scheduled, which will help fill in the picture of the economy’s health ^[70]. Investors will also get a delayed official October jobs report, likely showing how the labor market fared during the shutdown period (though early indications suggest some cooling). Should these data reveal more easing in inflation or any cracks in the economy, it could influence the Fed’s tone in December.

The earnings calendar remains in focus as well. The tail end of the Q3 earnings season features several big names next week: Home Depot will report results, providing insight into consumer spending on home improvement; Nvidia – a bellwether for the AI and semiconductor space – will release its highly anticipated earnings (after pre-announcing blockbuster preliminary results earlier, investors will watch for guidance and AI chip demand updates); major retailers like Target, TJX, and Walmart are also due to announce earnings ^[71], shedding light on the strength of the consumer and holiday season expectations. Strong reports from these companies could bolster market confidence, while any disappointments (especially in retail, which would reflect consumer health) could spark renewed sector rotation.

Market sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic despite near-term uncertainties. On one hand, the ingredients for a typical year-end rally (often called a “Santa Claus rally”) are falling into place: the Fed is on hold, inflation is gradually cooling, and the economy – though slowing – is still avoiding recession. The S&P 500 has already logged solid gains in 2025, and if inflation data in the next month shows further improvement (e.g. a meaningful dip closer to 2% core inflation), it could reignite hopes for early 2026 rate cuts and provide fuel for stocks to push higher. Additionally, the resolution of the government shutdown and any positive news (such as easing of trade tensions or fiscal stimulus measures) could add upside momentum.

On the other hand, risks and headwinds remain that could limit upside in the immediate term. The recent pullback in tech stocks demonstrates how sensitive the market is to changes in the interest rate outlook and valuation concerns. Should inflation surprise to the upside in the next report or Fed officials turn even more hawkish in commentary, it may revive fears of further tightening – an outcome that would likely pressure high-valuation equities and perhaps lead to broader market consolidation. Likewise, any escalation in geopolitical conflicts (Europe, Middle East, or elsewhere) could quickly send investors into safe havens, at least temporarily.

Many investment strategists therefore advise some near-term caution. As one strategy note pointed out, after a three-year bull run, it’s wise to ensure portfolios are diversified and not over-concentrated in the year’s biggest winners ^[72]. Sectors like healthcare, industrials, and certain quality cyclicals are often mentioned as attractive going into 2026, given their reasonable valuations and potential to benefit if the economy re-accelerates on the back of easing inflation ^[73]. There’s also interest in emerging markets and international equities, which have lagged U.S. stocks and could see catch-up gains if global growth stabilizes (helped by central banks abroad also pausing rate hikes).

In terms of levels and technicals, the S&P 500 is hovering in the mid-6700s, not far from its all-time highs. A sustained break above the recent peak (around 6,800) could signal a renewed uptrend, whereas support is eyed in the 6,500 range if further profit-taking occurs. The Nasdaq Composite, after its slight pullback, may find support if earnings from big tech (like Nvidia) impress; conversely, a disappointment could lead to another leg down for tech before year-end. The Dow, with its heavier weighting in industrial and value stocks, could continue to grind higher if economic data remains decent and yields don’t spike.

Bottom line: The short-term forecast for the U.S. stock market is for continued choppiness with an upward bias. The market is digesting a lot of cross-currents – Fed policy, inflation, sector rotation, and global events – which likely means volatility will stay elevated in the weeks to come. However, as long as a recession is averted and the Fed doesn’t restart rate hikes, most analysts do not foresee a major bear market on the horizon ^[74]. Pullbacks, like the one seen this week, are viewed as potential buying opportunities rather than cause for panic, given the overall constructive backdrop of moderating inflation and robust corporate earnings growth (S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise this year, led by the tech sector).

Investors will be closely watching the upcoming November inflation report (due in mid-December) and the Fed’s December meeting for confirmation that the central bank will indeed stand pat. Any dovish surprises – such as more explicit indications of future rate cuts – could be a catalyst for a late-year rally. Conversely, any stumbles in the economic data or company earnings could keep the market in check. For now, caution and selective positioning are key. The U.S. stock market enters the final stretch of 2025 balancing lingering risks against a backdrop of cooling inflation and resilient growth – a mix that, if it continues, could set the stage for further gains heading into 2026.

Sources: U.S. market index data and weekly performance from Edward Jones ^[75]; sector trends and Fed rate cut odds from Edward Jones and CME FedWatch ^[76] ^[77]; Fed official comments and market reaction from Saxo Bank ^[78] ^[79]; stock and earnings news from Reuters/Saxo ^[80] and Investing.com ^[81] ^[82]; macroeconomic insights from Charles Schwab research ^[83] ^[84]; government shutdown and policy updates from Edward Jones and Reuters ^[85] ^[86] ^[87].