CHICAGO, March 10, 2026, 2:30 PM CDT
United Airlines Holdings shares fell on Tuesday as investors weighed rising jet-fuel costs against the carrier’s 2026 targets, days after Chief Executive Scott Kirby warned the hit to first-quarter results would be “meaningful.” UAL was down 2.5% at $92.20 in afternoon trade. Reuters
Why it matters now is the speed of the move. Jet fuel has jumped from roughly $85-$90 a barrel to $150-$200 in recent days, and United, like most big U.S. carriers, does not hedge fuel — meaning it does not use financial contracts to lock in prices ahead of time. Fuel is usually an airline’s second-biggest expense after labor, and Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker said carriers will try to “pass through the costs” if the inflation lasts. Reuters
United has told investors that every $1 move in the price of a barrel of aircraft fuel changes its 2026 fuel bill by about $116 million. TD Cowen estimates the airline’s first-quarter adjusted profit could shrink to 5 cents to 22 cents a share, far below the $1 to $1.50 range United laid out in January, when it also projected full-year adjusted earnings of $12 to $14.
“The airlines are able to recapture a portion of the spike in fuel prices, but it’s hard to envision margin expansion this year” without a quick drop in energy prices, TD Cowen’s Tom Fitzgerald wrote. Delta and American were also lower on Tuesday, while some European rivals had more protection because they locked in part of their fuel costs earlier. Reuters
That jars with the tone United struck in January. The airline then reported record quarterly revenue, full-year operating revenue of $59.1 billion and $2.7 billion in free cash flow for 2025, while Kirby said revenue momentum was “continuing into 2026.” United – Newsroom
There is another pressure point in Chicago. The Federal Aviation Administration wants deeper summer flight cuts at O’Hare, where United plans to operate about 780 flights a day this month, up from 541 a day last year. American, United’s main rival there, has accused it of overly aggressive scheduling.
But the pressure could still ease. Reuters reported oil fell to about $90 a barrel on Tuesday from a high near $119 on Monday, even as it said it remained unclear whether higher fares and slower growth would be enough to fully protect airline margins if fuel stays elevated.
The next real checkpoint comes March 17, when United said Kirby and Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen will speak at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference. They will be addressing investors as U.S. airlines head into a spring travel period expected to carry 171 million passengers nationally, with security lines in some cities already stretching to three hours amid shutdown-related staffing strains.
