New York, January 27, 2026, 04:49 EST — Premarket
- Shares of UnitedHealth slipped roughly 8% in premarket action, following a sharp selloff late yesterday.
- CMS suggested a nearly flat update to 2027 Medicare Advantage payments, alongside stricter rules on certain diagnosis data that influence those payments.
- UnitedHealth will release its earnings and 2026 outlook before the bell; CMS is accepting comments until Feb. 25.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc dropped 8.3% in premarket trading Tuesday, slipping to $322.32 after closing Monday at $351.64.
The slide shines a new spotlight on Medicare Advantage, the government-backed private plans driving major profits for large insurers. The move comes just hours ahead of UnitedHealth’s full-year 2025 earnings report and 2026 outlook.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced its initial 2027 “advance notice,” showing a net average payment increase of just 0.09% for Medicare Advantage. They attributed a 4.97% “effective growth rate” that was nearly wiped out by a -3.32% adjustment from risk-model changes and a -1.53% hit related to diagnosis sources. CMS noted that once they include the expected risk-score trend, the average payment change would rise to 2.54%. Centers for Medicare Medicaid Services
Traders are zeroing in on one key detail: starting in 2027, CMS will stop including diagnoses from “unlinked” chart reviews—those not tied to specific patient visits—in risk score calculations. “Those diagnoses will no longer be used for calculating risk scores,” CMS stated in a fact sheet. Risk scores help adjust payments upward for sicker patients. Fierce Healthcare
CMS described the package as a cleanup move. “These proposed payment policies are about making sure Medicare Advantage works better for the people it serves,” said CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz in the release. The agency will accept comments until Feb. 25 and plans to release the final rate announcement by April 6. Centers for Medicare Medicaid Services
The whole managed-care sector took a hit. UnitedHealth, CVS Health, and Humana dropped between 8% and 13% in after-hours trading Monday, per Reuters calculations. Elevance Health, Centene, and Molina Healthcare slid nearly 5%. “People were ballparking this flat rate to be closer to 4 to 5%,” said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Bahl & Gaynor, which holds UnitedHealth shares. Reuters
The Wall Street Journal reported that Wall Street anticipated an average 2027 increase between 4% and 6%, while also pointing to a CMS action aimed at limiting a billing practice linked to chart reviews.
AHIP flagged the modest headline update, suggesting it might translate into benefit reductions. “If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit cuts and higher costs for 35 million seniors,” said Chris Bond, an AHIP spokesperson. LinkedIn
This is just the opening act. The Medicare Advantage rate process frequently changes from the initial notice to the final announcement. Insurers will be lobbying hard during the comment period over the next month.
UnitedHealth’s next big moment is just ahead: earnings and 2026 guidance drop before the open, with a conference call set for 8 a.m. ET. Investors will be digging for clues on Medicare Advantage pricing and benefit changes — and watching closely to see if CMS’s April 6 decision ends up matching this initial draft.
