Wall Street starts the week with a compact but market-sensitive U.S. economic calendar today, Monday, December 15, 2025—headlined by the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, and remarks from New York Fed President John C. Williams. Treasury bill auctions also add an important rates-and-liquidity check-in for investors watching the front end of the curve.
The backdrop matters more than usual: a recent, record-length U.S. government shutdown disrupted data collection, pushed back key releases, and left holes in the official economic record—meaning this week’s delayed jobs and inflation prints may come with extra caveats on comparability and reliability. [1]
Below is what’s on the U.S. economic calendar today, what forecasters expect, and why markets are paying close attention.
US economic calendar today: key releases and events for Monday, December 15, 2025
All times Eastern (ET). In December, ET is typically UTC-5, so add five hours for UTC/GMT.
8:30 a.m. ET — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (December)
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is one of the earliest monthly reads on U.S. factory conditions, and it can move markets because it lands ahead of many other regional manufacturing gauges.
- What markets watch: the headline business conditions index, plus subcomponents like new orders, employment, and prices paid/received for inflation signals.
- Consensus view: CME Group/Econoday’s market consensus looks for the index to cool to 10.0 from 18.7previously (with a consensus range shown between 5.0 and 15.4). [2]
- Why it matters today: with investors already braced for delayed national labor and inflation releases later this week, an upside or downside surprise in “early-cycle” indicators like this can sway short-term rate expectations quickly.
The New York Fed’s own calendar confirms the release timing for the Empire State survey today. [3]
10:00 a.m. ET — NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (December)
Housing remains one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy, and the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is closely followed as a sentiment-based, forward-looking signal.
- Where sentiment stands: NAHB reported builder confidence at 38 in November, still well below the 50-level that indicates more builders view conditions as “good” than “poor.” NAHB also noted an elevated share of builders cutting prices and using incentives—signs of affordability pressure and demand sensitivity to mortgage rates. [4]
- When it prints: NAHB’s schedule lists a normal release time of 10:00 a.m. ET, and shows December 2025 HMI is released today (Dec. 15, 2025). [5]
- Forecast snapshot: TradingView’s indicator page shows a forecast of 39 (points). [6]
Why it matters today: if the HMI ticks higher, markets will ask whether housing is stabilizing as the Fed begins easing. If it slips, that reinforces the narrative that high borrowing costs and affordability constraints are still biting, even after rate cuts.
10:30 a.m. ET — New York Fed President John Williams speaks
Fed communication is part of the “economic calendar,” especially right after a policy move.
John C. Williams (New York Fed) is scheduled to participate in an economic growth discussion today, according to CME Group/Econoday’s Fed-speech tracking. [7] ING’s daily FX briefing also flags Williams as a key speaker today, highlighting his influence in shaping market expectations ahead of last week’s Fed decision. [8]
Why markets care: investors will listen for any guidance on:
- whether the Fed is leaning toward pausing after recent cuts,
- how officials interpret shutdown-distorted data,
- and what the Fed is prioritizing—growth risks, inflation persistence, or financial conditions.
11:00 a.m. ET — New York Fed SCE Labor Market Survey
The New York Fed calendar also shows today’s release of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Labor Market Survey. [9]
Why it matters: in a week dominated by delayed “hard” labor data, investor attention often broadens to alternative labor-market indicators—especially those that can hint at wage expectations, job security perceptions, and job-switching confidence.
11:30 a.m. ET — U.S. Treasury bill auctions (front-end rates test)
Market calendars today include auctions for short-dated Treasury bills—commonly referenced as 3-month (13-week) and 6-month (26-week) bills.
The Treasury’s Tentative Auction Schedule shows:
- 13-Week Bill — auction date Monday, Dec. 15, 2025
- 26-Week Bill — auction date Monday, Dec. 15, 2025 [10]
Why it matters today: bill auctions are a real-time read on demand for cash-like government paper, and they can influence front-end yields—especially when markets are recalibrating expectations for the Fed’s path and liquidity conditions.
Why today’s calendar feels bigger than it looks: the shutdown’s data aftershocks
Investors are not just watching today’s manufacturing and housing indicators—they’re trying to rebuild confidence in the data pipeline after the shutdown disrupted collection and publication schedules.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been explicit about the consequences:
- No October 2025 Employment Situation report. BLS says it will not publish the October Employment Situation release; October establishment survey data will be published with November data, but October household survey data were not collected and will not be collected retroactively. [11]
- October CPI holes. BLS indicates it will not publish key October CPI aggregates (including all-items and core), and the November CPI release will not include certain 1‑month percent changes where October data are missing. [12]
That’s why some market commentary today warns that even once delayed data arrives, it may not deliver a “clean” picture. The Financial Times reports analysts caution the first post-shutdown jobs and inflation reports may be incomplete or distorted, potentially leaving investors waiting until early 2026 for clearer reads. [13]
The bigger market focus is shifting to Tuesday and Thursday: delayed jobs and CPI
Even though the headline U.S. economic calendar today centers on Empire State and NAHB, the week’s gravitational pull is the delayed national releases.
Tuesday, Dec. 16 — Employment Situation (November) at 8:30 a.m. ET
BLS’s official calendar shows the Employment Situation for November 2025 is scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [14]
Thursday, Dec. 18 — CPI (November) at 8:30 a.m. ET
BLS’s schedule lists the Consumer Price Index for November 2025 for Thursday, Dec. 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET, along with Real Earnings. [15]
What forecasters are watching: Barron’s notes economists are bracing for weak job growth and expects November CPI to remain above target (with market attention especially on labor-market softness and what it implies for rate cuts). [16]
Fed backdrop: rate cuts, “data dependence,” and why speeches matter this week
Today’s calendar lands right after the Fed’s latest policy decision—and that shapes how investors interpret every release.
Recent coverage underscores a Fed that’s still divided on the balance between inflation and growth:
- Reuters reported Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she would have preferred tighter policy given inflation concerns, even after the Fed’s most recent cut. [17]
- The Associated Press reported the Fed’s latest cut marked another step in an easing phase, while also highlighting internal disagreement over the path ahead. [18]
Separately, Reuters’ “Morning Bid” commentary highlights that markets were also digesting the Fed’s communication and a Treasury-bill-focused buying program aimed at smoothing money markets—another reason investors are attentive to the bill sector and front-end rates. [19]
This is why Fed speakers today—especially Williams—can be as market-moving as the data: they provide the narrative framework investors use to translate noisy, shutdown-impacted numbers into policy expectations.
Market tone today: cautious positioning into delayed “big ticket” data
In Monday trading, investor commentary and market reporting emphasize the same theme: positioning is increasingly about the delayed labor and inflation prints rather than any single “regular” data point.
Reuters market coverage today frames the week as one where markets are watching U.S. data closely—particularly jobs and inflation—because it will shape expectations for the next phase of Fed policy. [20] ING echoes that the dollar and broader FX markets are bracing for a busy U.S. week, with Fed speakers (including Williams) in focus alongside the data. [21]
What to watch as the US economic calendar unfolds today
If you’re tracking the U.S. economic calendar today for market impact, here are the practical “pressure points” investors typically monitor:
- Empire State: direction matters more than precision. A sharp downside surprise would reinforce slowdown fears; a rebound would support “resilience” narratives and could lift yields—especially if price components are firm. [22]
- NAHB: signs of stabilization vs. renewed strain. With HMI still in the high 30s, even a small move can drive a bigger story about whether lower policy rates are translating into housing relief. [23]
- Fed speakers: any shift in emphasis. Markets will parse Williams’ tone for how the Fed plans to handle shutdown-related data gaps and whether “data dependence” becomes more cautious than usual. [24]
- Treasury bill auctions: demand and yield signals. Strong demand can help anchor front-end yields; weaker demand can amplify volatility into Tuesday’s jobs report. [25]
- Data quality risk remains elevated. Even when the delayed releases hit later this week, BLS has warned about missing October observations and knock-on effects in November reporting—making “clean comparisons” harder than normal. [26]
Today’s U.S. economic calendar may look lighter than a typical “CPI week,” but it’s setting the tone for a stretch where every release—and every Fed microphone—will be judged against an unusual reality: markets are trying to price the economy while the official data record has visible seams.
References
1. www.bls.gov, 2. www.cmegroup.com, 3. www.newyorkfed.org, 4. www.nahb.org, 5. www.nahb.org, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.cmegroup.com, 8. think.ing.com, 9. www.newyorkfed.org, 10. home.treasury.gov, 11. www.bls.gov, 12. www.bls.gov, 13. www.ft.com, 14. www.bls.gov, 15. www.bls.gov, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. think.ing.com, 22. www.cmegroup.com, 23. www.nahb.org, 24. www.cmegroup.com, 25. home.treasury.gov, 26. www.bls.gov
