As of 5:30 a.m. ET on Friday, December 12, 2025, U.S. stock futures were mixed to nearly flat, with traders weighing a powerful post-Fed rally against renewed nerves around AI spending economics after Oracle’s sharp drop and Broadcom’s margin warning. [1]
Thursday delivered a headline-grabbing split: the Dow and S&P 500 closed at fresh records, but the Nasdaq slipped, a sign that leadership is broadening beyond megacap tech even as the AI trade remains a dominant narrative into year-end. [2]
Stock futures at 5:30 a.m. ET: muted direction after a record day
Futures action early Friday suggested no decisive “risk-on” follow-through after Thursday’s record closes. In early premarket trading, Dow futures were modestly higher, S&P 500 futures were near flat, and Nasdaq-100 futures were slightly lower, reflecting lingering pressure on AI-linked tech names. [3]
That cautious setup tracks what’s been driving markets all week: central-bank headlines and a very specific question inside equities—how quickly AI infrastructure spending turns into durable profits rather than just bigger capex budgets. [4]
What happened Thursday: Dow and S&P 500 at record highs, Nasdaq lags on Oracle shock
Thursday’s closing numbers captured the tug-of-war:
- S&P 500: 6,901.00 (+0.2%)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,704.01 (+1.3%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,593.86 (−0.3%)
- Russell 2000: 2,590.61 (+1.2%) [5]
In sector terms, the day looked like a classic rotation session: financials and materials led, while technology was pressured after Oracle’s outlook reignited valuation anxiety in AI-adjacent stocks. [6]
That rotation matters for today’s narrative because it hints at something bigger than a one-day bounce: investors are increasingly looking for a broader market rally, not just a handful of AI winners doing the heavy lifting. [7]
The Fed is still the macro backdrop: a cut, a likely pause, and a new liquidity signal
The market is still digesting the Federal Reserve’s latest message: a 25-basis-point cut that brought the fed funds range to 3.50%–3.75%, paired with guidance that suggests a slower path ahead. [8]
Two points are driving forecasts into the open:
1) “Pause” vibes vs. market pricing
Fed projections signaled fewer cuts than markets had been leaning toward, while investors continue to debate whether the next move is a prolonged hold or further easing if growth cools. [9]
Reuters reporting also highlights a major complication: a recent government shutdown delayed data releases, making the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach even more consequential for markets that trade on every payroll and inflation print. [10]
2) Treasury bill purchases begin today (Dec. 12) — the “reserve management” story
A separate, closely watched development: the New York Fed’s Desk is beginning a program of reserve management purchases, with the first schedule showing about $40 billion in reserve management purchases plus about $14.4 billionin reinvestment purchases over the Dec. 12 to Jan. 14 window. [11]
Official Fed communications emphasize this is designed to maintain an ample level of reserves, which markets often interpret as a liquidity-supportive backdrop even when it’s not framed as “QE.” [12]
Not everyone reads it bullishly. Michael Burry, for example, has argued that the need for these operations could be a warning sign about stress points in the banking and liquidity system. [13]
The AI trade faces a reality check: Oracle’s plunge and Broadcom’s margin warning
Oracle: forecasts and capex spark “AI bubble” chatter
Oracle shares fell sharply Thursday (down about 13% in Reuters reporting), and the move rippled through AI-adjacent tech as investors focused on spending intensity and uncertainty around near-term payoff. [14]
Reuters noted that multiple brokerages moved quickly after the report, and the broader market read-through was clear: even major AI infrastructure beneficiaries can get punished if guidance and spending trajectories spook investors. [15]
Broadcom: great demand signal, uncomfortable profitability question
Broadcom delivered an upbeat top-line outlook—forecasting $19.1 billion in quarterly revenue versus estimates around $18.27 billion—and disclosed a massive $73 billion order backlog across roughly five customers, underscoring how concentrated (and enormous) hyperscaler demand has become. [16]
But the market reaction was about margins: Broadcom warned gross margin could dip (management flagged roughly 100 basis points sequentially), and shares fell in after-hours trading. [17]
Why it matters today: Broadcom is frequently treated as an “AI bellwether.” When its stock drops on margin dilution—even while demand is booming—it reinforces a broader theme: AI revenue growth is not automatically AI profit growth. [18]
Key premarket stocks and headlines shaping the open
Here are the stories most likely to set the tone in premarket trading and early cash-session flows:
Lululemon: CEO transition + raised outlook sparks after-hours jump
Lululemon said CEO Calvin McDonald will step down in January (with interim co-CEOs named), and the company raised its annual profit forecast; shares rose about 10% in extended trading in Reuters reporting. [19]
Investors are also watching management’s commentary on pricing and promotions, especially as the company warned about discounting dynamics and a tariff-related hit to income. [20]
Costco: beats expectations, but valuation remains a debate
Costco posted a quarterly beat (including EPS above forecasts and revenue slightly ahead), and comparable sales rose 6.4%, according to Barron’s coverage of the results. [21]
Yet the stock reaction was muted after hours in that same coverage, reflecting an ongoing push-pull: Costco’s execution is strong, but expectations and valuation are high. [22]
Disney + OpenAI: a headline partnership in the AI content race
Disney disclosed a $1 billion investment in OpenAI and a licensing deal allowing Disney characters to be used in OpenAI’s Sora video tool, a sign that large media companies are moving from AI skepticism to negotiated partnerships—while unions and creators watch carefully. [23]
Nasdaq 100 reshuffle watch: Strategy (MSTR) draws scrutiny
Ahead of the Nasdaq 100 annual reshuffle due Friday, Reuters reported that some analysts flagged potential index-inclusion risks for bitcoin-heavy Strategy, raising the stakes for a stock that can see large flows around index events. [24]
Global cues: Asia steadies, dollar softer, commodities active
Overnight, Asian markets were cautiously higher even as tech sentiment remained fragile after Oracle, while commodities and currencies reflected the post-Fed environment. Reuters highlighted dollar softness and strong action in industrial metals (including record highs in some copper contracts), while oil prices were supported by geopolitical/supply concerns. [25]
For U.S. investors, the global message is less about one region and more about conditions: a weaker dollar and shifting rate expectations can influence sector leadership (financials, materials, industrials) and keep volatility elevated in growth/tech multiples. [26]
Forecasts and what to watch as the cash market approaches
With the opening bell still hours away, here’s what markets are likely to trade today:
1) Will the rally broaden again—or snap back to megacap tech?
Thursday showed strong breadth with cyclicals and small caps participating, even as tech lagged. Whether that persists depends on whether investors treat Oracle/Broadcom as isolated earnings reactions or a broader warning about AI economics. [27]
2) Fed “pause” vs. market “cuts” debate
Markets are still balancing: (a) the Fed’s slower projected easing path, and (b) investors’ instinct to price more cuts if the labor market softens—especially with some economic data still distorted by the recent shutdown backlog. [28]
3) Liquidity headlines: Treasury bill purchases start today
Even if it’s framed as a technical reserve management operation, the start date—Dec. 12—is today, and traders will watch money-market conditions and rates for any hint of knock-on effects. [29]
4) Earnings digestion in retail and semis
Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon collectively touch three core market nerves: AI infrastructure profitability, consumer resilience, and the holiday-season pricing environment. [30]
Bottom line for “US stock market today” at 5:30 a.m. ET
The U.S. stock market enters Friday with a deceptively calm setup: futures are close to flat, but the underlying debate is intense. The S&P 500 and Dow are at record highs, supported by easing-rate momentum and a liquidity backdrop that turns more supportive today as the Fed’s bill purchases begin. [31]
At the same time, the market is clearly drawing a line through the AI trade: it still loves demand, but it’s increasingly allergic to margin dilution, ballooning capex, and unclear ROI—exactly the issues Oracle and Broadcom put back on center stage. [32]
References
1. www.investors.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.investors.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.barchart.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.federalreserve.gov, 13. www.businessinsider.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.barchart.com, 32. www.reuters.com
