As of around 12:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday, December 5, 2025, U.S. stocks were edging higher, keeping the major indexes within touching distance of their record highs while traders digested a key inflation update and looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
At midday:
- The S&P 500 was up about 0.1% at 6,866.72, roughly 0.4% below its late-October record close near 6,891. [1]
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 70–73 points (0.15%) to 47,923.73. [2]
- The Nasdaq Composite was modestly higher, with the Nasdaq 100 up about 0.3% to 25,660.88. [3]
In other words, Wall Street is drifting higher rather than surging, but doing so from very elevated levels: the Dow and S&P 500 are within roughly 1% of their all‑time closing highs, and the Nasdaq remains only a couple of percentage points below its own records. [4]
Wall Street at Midday: Calm Gains Near the Peak
An Associated Press midday update described the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Dow up 69 points (0.1%), and the Nasdaq up 0.1% as of 12:29 p.m. Eastern, with investors “flirting” with record territory but not quite breaking through. [5]
This continues a pattern from the past several sessions:
- On Thursday, the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%, even as the Dow slipped 0.1%. [6]
- Those moves left the S&P 500 about half a percent below its record high, a gap that today’s modest advance is narrowing further. [7]
Volatility has cooled notably compared with the sharp swings seen in April and again during the autumn correction. AP notes that this week’s trading has been “much quieter,” as markets wait for the Fed’s December meeting and a full set of delayed economic reports. [8]
PCE Inflation Report and Consumer Expectations Boost Fed Cut Bets
Friday’s main macro driver was the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, released late due to the long government shutdown.
Key points from the latest data:
- Headline PCE inflation rose 2.8% year‑on‑year in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. [9]
- Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also increased 2.8% year‑on‑year and roughly 0.2% month‑on‑month, slightly below some forecasts of 2.9%. [10]
At the same time, the University of Michigan’s December consumer survey showed:
- 1‑year inflation expectations fell from 4.5% to 4.1%, the lowest reading since January 2025. [11]
Both pieces of data reinforce the narrative of easing, but still elevated, inflation, giving the Fed more cover to cut rates without declaring victory.
Markets quickly translated that into higher rate‑cut odds:
- Multiple analyses based on the CME FedWatch tool now put the probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut at next week’s Fed meeting at around 85–87%, with additional cuts expected in 2026. [12]
AP also notes that if the Fed does cut next week, it would be the third rate cut of 2025, validating traders’ view that policy is shifting steadily from “restrictive” toward more supportive. [13]
Bond yields are responding in a measured way: AP’s midday market recap cites the 10‑year Treasury yield around 4.13%, slightly above Thursday’s 4.11%, reflecting modest selling in longer‑dated Treasuries but no panic. [14]
Labor Market Signals: Low Jobless Claims, “Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire” Dynamic
Thursday’s jobless claims data, which markets are still digesting, complicated the Fed picture:
- Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 191,000 for the week ended Nov. 29, the lowest since September 2022 and well below expectations around 221,000. [15]
- Economists quoted in AP coverage describe the labor market as “kind of frozen” — layoffs are muted, but hiring has slowed, leaving many would‑be workers in limbo. [16]
The combination of softening inflation, stubbornly tight layoffs, and slowing hiring helps explain why markets see a cut as likely but are still debating how far the Fed can go in 2026.
Earnings Winners: Ulta Beauty and Victoria’s Secret Lead Consumer Stocks
The most eye‑catching moves at midday are coming from consumer and retail names, where earnings surprises and guidance upgrades are driving double‑digit gains.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Up ~13–14% on Strong Q3 and Higher Outlook
Shares of Ulta Beauty were up roughly 13–14% around midday, making the cosmetics retailer one of the S&P 500’s top performers. [17]
Drivers behind the surge:
- Ulta beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, with EPS of about $5.14 and revenue of $2.9 billion, topping consensus by roughly 7%. [18]
- Management raised full‑year guidance, now expecting about $12.3 billion in annual net sales (up from $12.0–12.1 billion previously) and higher EPS guidance in the $25.20–$25.50 range versus prior $23.85–$24.30. [19]
AP notes that CEO Kecia Steelman sees broad consumer pressure but continued category growth, especially in e‑commerce, supporting the more optimistic outlook. [20]
Victoria’s Secret (VSCO): Double‑Digit Gain on Turnaround Momentum
Victoria’s Secret & Co. is another standout, with shares up around 11–13% by midday. [21]
Key details from its Q3 update:
- Net sales rose to about $1.47 billion, up 9% year‑on‑year, with comparable sales up 5%, signaling progress in the brand’s turnaround efforts. [22]
- The company delivered a smaller-than-expected loss and raised its full‑year sales forecast to roughly $6.45–$6.48 billion, up from $6.33–$6.41 billion previously. [23]
Analysts point to improving merchandising, fewer discounts, and early success in refreshing the brand’s image as key drivers. [24]
Mega‑Deal in Streaming: Netflix’s $72 Billion Bid for Warner Bros.
One of the biggest corporate stories on the tape today is Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s TV, film studios and streaming division.
Deal Basics
- Netflix has agreed to buy the Warner Bros. assets in a cash‑and‑stock deal valuing the equity at about $72 billion, or $27.75 per share, and roughly $82.7 billion including debt. [25]
- The transaction is contingent on Warner Bros. spinning off its global networks unit, Discovery Global, into a separate listed company, with completion targeted for late 2026. [26]
Market Reaction at Midday
According to the AP midday snapshot on Barchart: [27]
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) shares were up about 2–3%.
- Netflix (NFLX), after initially dropping more than 5% on the news, was down about 3.2% by early afternoon.
- Paramount Skydance (PSKY), once seen as a front‑runner bidder, fell roughly 7–8%.
Reuters notes that the deal will likely face significant antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe, as combining Netflix with HBO Max’s nearly 130 million streaming subscribers could further concentrate power in premium content and distribution. [28]
Netflix executives argue the acquisition will:
- Expand its content library with franchises like “Game of Thrones,” “Harry Potter” and the DC universe.
- Lower costs per subscriber through bundling and scale synergies.
- Potentially generate $2–3 billion in annual cost savings by the third year after closing. [29]
For investors, the near‑term question is whether the strategic upside outweighs regulatory risk and integration complexity—and today’s pullback in Netflix shares suggests a cautious view.
Tech and Fintech Movers: UiPath Soars, HPE and SoFi Sink
UiPath (PATH): Automation Winner
Shares of UiPath were up more than 20% in afternoon trading, hitting a new 52‑week high after the automation software company delivered a strong Q3 report.
Highlights:
- UiPath achieved its first GAAP‑profitable quarter, with operating income of about $13 million.
- Q3 revenue rose 16% year‑on‑year to roughly $411 million, with guidance calling for continued double‑digit growth in Q4.
The rally underscores ongoing investor enthusiasm for AI‑driven productivity software, even as some other AI‑themed names waver.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Weak Guidance Hits AI Enthusiasm
In contrast, Hewlett Packard Enterprise is under pressure:
- HPE shares are down roughly 9% today after the company posted Q4 revenue of $9.68 billion, short of the roughly $9.9 billion analysts expected.
- Management also issued softer‑than‑expected guidance for the current quarter, citing delays in AI server shipments and “lumpiness” in large sovereign orders.
The results highlight a key theme of this earnings season: not all AI stories are created equal, and hardware‑heavy plays are more vulnerable to capex timing than software‑as‑a‑service names.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI): Dilution Jitters
Another notable laggard is SoFi Technologies, whose stock is down about 7% to $27.47 around midday.
The fintech announced a $1.5 billion public offering of common stock, priced at $27.50 per share, with proceeds earmarked for bolstering capital, enhancing balance‑sheet flexibility and funding growth initiatives.
While SoFi shares are still up strongly year‑to‑date, investors often react negatively to large equity offerings because they dilute existing shareholders, even when the capital will be used for expansion.
Technical and Seasonal Backdrop: Late‑Year Rally, but Risks Linger
Beyond day‑to‑day headlines, strategists are watching the technical health of the market as 2025 winds down.
A December 5 commentary from LPL Financial notes that:
- The S&P 500 rebounded from a nearly 5% drawdown in November to finish that month slightly positive, helped by strong earnings and renewed AI optimism.
- Around 60% of S&P 500 constituents are now trading above their 200‑day moving averages, up from about 50% in mid‑November—an improvement, though still low for a market near record highs.
- Seasonal patterns historically favor equities in December, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.4% gain and finishing higher about 73% of the time since 1950. Strength, however, typically shows up more in the second half of the month.
Even so, LPL cautions that:
- The index has yet to decisively clear resistance in the 6,851–6,870 area, which roughly corresponds to today’s trading zone.
- A lack of aggressive retail investor participation in the latest rebound raises questions about how durable the rally will be if institutional sentiment shifts.
In short: the bull market trend remains intact, but near‑term downside risks haven’t disappeared.
What Today’s Session Means for Investors
Putting it all together, here’s how the midday picture looks for investors tracking U.S. stocks on December 5, 2025:
- Macro backdrop is supportive but not euphoric
- PCE inflation at 2.8% and softening consumer inflation expectations are consistent with a “soft landing” narrative, not a recession scare or a renewed inflation spike.
- Fed cut odds near 85–87% for next week are anchoring rate‑sensitive assets and putting a ceiling on bond yields.
- Earnings remain the key differentiator
- Companies that beat expectations and raise guidance—like Ulta Beauty, Victoria’s Secret and UiPath—are being rewarded with double‑digit gains.
- Names that miss on revenue or guide cautiously, such as HPE or capital‑raising stories like SoFi, are seeing swift downside.
- Mega‑cap and media M&A could reshape sector leadership
- Netflix’s bid for Warner Bros. is a reminder that content scale and IP ownership remain strategic priorities—and that big deals can also attract big regulatory headaches.
- Technicals and seasonality favor cautious optimism
- Breadth is improving, December seasonality is historically strong, and the market has absorbed several macro shocks already this year.
- But with indexes near record highs, any disappointment from the Fed or incoming data could trigger a pullback rather than another straight leg higher.
For now, the midday message from Wall Street is one of steady, data‑driven optimism: inflation is cooling enough to keep the Fed on track for a cut, corporate earnings are—on balance—supportive, and the S&P 500 is inching along the edge of a record that traders increasingly expect to see broken before year‑end.
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.barchart.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.expressnews.com, 8. www.barchart.com, 9. www.bea.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.sca.isr.umich.edu, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.recordpatriot.com, 16. www.recordpatriot.com, 17. www.barchart.com, 18. finance.yahoo.com, 19. ww.fashionnetwork.com, 20. www.barchart.com, 21. www.barchart.com, 22. www.victoriassecretandco.com, 23. www.wsj.com, 24. wwd.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.barchart.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
