NEW YORK — December 9, 2025
U.S. stocks finished Tuesday’s session mostly unchanged as Wall Street parked itself just below record territory and waited for the Federal Reserve’s final interest‑rate decision of 2025.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped roughly 0.3% to around 47,600, weighed down by a sharp drop in JPMorgan Chase. The S&P 500 ended virtually flat, just under 6,850, holding near October’s all‑time high. The Nasdaq Compositeinched higher by about 0.2% toward 23,600, helped by strength in large‑cap growth and select tech names. [1]
Behind the calm index moves was a busy tape: a key labor‑market report, another pop in Treasury yields, a mild uptick in Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fresh AI‑chip headlines involving Nvidia, and new forecasts calling for both Fed rate cuts and higher S&P 500 levels in 2026. [2]
Key takeaways from the December 9, 2025 session
- Indexes:
- Macro backdrop:
- The Fed began a two‑day FOMC meeting, with futures markets putting roughly 85–90% odds on a 25‑basis‑point rate cut on Wednesday. [6]
- The JOLTS report showed October job openings around 7.7 million, a slight uptick but with weaker hiring, underscoring what economists call a “low‑hire, low‑fire” labor market. [7]
- The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.18%, reversing an early dip after the labor data. [8]
- Big stock stories:
- JPMorgan Chase tumbled around 4% after flagging 2026 expenses near $105 billion, well above 2025’s projected ~$96 billion. [9]
- Exxon Mobil gained about 2.3% after raising its five‑year profit outlook, highlighting growth in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana. [10]
- Ares Management surged nearly 9% after being tapped to join the S&P 500, replacing snack and cereal maker Kellanova. [11]
- CVS Health rose roughly 3% on guidance calling for mid‑teens EPS growth over the next three years. [12]
- Nvidia slipped around 0.6–0.7% despite news that President Trump would allow exports of H200 AI chips to “approved customers” in China with a 25% tariff, as investors weighed fresh reports of potential Chinese restrictions. [13]
Market snapshot: flat indexes, busy under the hood
By the closing bell, the headline picture looked deceptively quiet:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: data from Investing.com show the Dow closing near 47,586, down about 0.32%, after trading between roughly 47,556 and 47,958 during the session. [14]
- S&P 500: FT data peg the large‑cap benchmark around 6,844, off by less than 0.05%, effectively unchanged and still within breathing distance of its October record. [15]
- Nasdaq Composite: According to Investing.com, the tech‑heavy index added about 0.18% to finish close to 23,589, marking a modest rebound after Monday’s loss. [16]
The overall tone was one of “drift” rather than panic or euphoria. Both AP and Reuters described the market as essentially treading water near record highs, as traders chose to wait for tomorrow’s Fed statement and press conference rather than place big directional bets. [17]
Fed meeting: rate cut likely, tone is everything
Today’s session was dominated by the start of the Fed’s two‑day December meeting, widely regarded as one of the most consequential events of the year for financial markets.
- Market pricing: CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders assigning roughly 87–90% odds to a 25‑basis‑point cut on Wednesday, which would mark the third cut in 2025. [18]
- Wall Street forecasts:
- Morgan Stanley recently reversed course and now expects a cut this week, joining JPMorgan and Bank of America after softer late‑November data and cautiously dovish Fed commentary. [19]
- Strategists caution that the bigger market swing may come from the Fed’s guidance, not the move itself: how many cuts, if any, to expect in 2026, and how the Fed balances still‑elevated inflation against a softer job market. [20]
Multiple pieces of research today framed the meeting as “rare and suspenseful”, with policymakers and investors unusually divided over how quickly the Fed should ease policy from here. [21]
Labor market check: JOLTS highlights a “no‑hire, no‑fire” economy
The day’s main economic data came from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS):
- Job openings: climbed slightly to around 7.67–7.7 million in October, roughly in line with expectations and the highest in about five months. [22]
- Hiring and layoffs: openings may be up, but hiring actually fell and layoffs ticked higher, reinforcing the picture of a “low‑hire, low‑fire” labor market where companies are cautious about both adding and cutting staff. [23]
Bond markets reacted quickly:
- The 10‑year Treasury yield reversed earlier declines to end near 4.18%, up from about 4.17% on Monday. [24]
- The 2‑year yield, more sensitive to Fed expectations, rose to around 3.60%. [25]
For equities, the message was mixed: the labor market isn’t collapsing, making a deep recession less likely, but it may also mean the Fed doesn’t need to cut as aggressively as some bulls hope. [26]
Big movers: banks under pressure, energy and alternatives shine
JPMorgan drags the Dow
The single biggest drag on the Dow today was JPMorgan Chase:
- At a conference, management said the bank expects expenses to reach about $105 billion in 2026, up roughly 9% from this year’s estimated ~$96 billion and above Wall Street forecasts. [27]
- The stock slid around 4%, putting JPMorgan on track for one of its worst single‑day performances of the year and pulling the S&P 500 bank index lower by nearly 2% late in the session. [28]
Higher cost outlook in a still‑uncertain rate environment spooked investors who had bid up big banks on hopes of a soft landing and robust credit quality.
Exxon Mobil leads the upside
In contrast, Exxon Mobil provided a bullish counterweight:
- The energy giant raised its five‑year profit forecast, highlighting stronger‑than‑expected returns from the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana developments.
- Shares jumped about 2.3%, making Exxon one of the most influential gainers in the S&P 500 on the day. [29]
The move helped the S&P 500 energy sector finish near the top of the leaderboard, up close to 1%. [30]
Ares Management, CVS and more
Elsewhere on the tape:
- Ares Management
- Soared almost 9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Ares will join the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova (the snack maker being acquired by Mars). [31]
- Index inclusions often spark mechanical buying from passive funds tracking the benchmark, and traders appeared to front‑run that demand.
- CVS Health
- Climbed around 3% after issuing new long‑term targets, including mid‑teens annual EPS growth over the next three years and commentary about “strong momentum” heading into 2026. [32]
- Home Depot
- Slipped around 1% after providing a cautious 2026 outlook calling for a modest contraction in the overall home‑improvement market, even as it projected mid‑ to high‑single‑digit EPS growth if housing stabilizes. [33]
- Toll Brothers
- Dropped about 1.2% after posting quarterly results that missed analyst expectations, with the CEO noting soft demand in several housing markets despite solid interest from wealthier buyers. [34]
Tech and AI: Nvidia takes a breather on China headlines
Tech stocks were choppy rather than euphoric:
- Nvidia initially popped after President Trump approved limited exports of its H200 AI chips to China, subject to a 25% tariff and restrictions to “approved customers.” [35]
- Sentiment cooled after a report suggested Beijing may curb access to those chips, and U.S. China‑hawks criticized the move, raising questions about how durable the new export regime will be. [36]
- By late afternoon, Nvidia shares were down around 0.6–0.7%, giving back earlier gains. [37]
Rival chipmakers AMD and Intel saw only muted moves, even as traders debated how changing export rules could reshape the AI hardware race. [38]
Investors are also looking ahead to earnings and guidance from Oracle and Broadcom later this week, which will offer a fresh read on enterprise AI spending and cloud infrastructure demand. [39]
Volatility and bonds: calm surface, subtle tension
Despite the Fed, jobs data, and stock‑specific fireworks, volatility stayed contained:
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” ticked up but remained in the mid‑teens, around 16.7–16.8, indicating mildly elevated but far from panicky sentiment. [40]
On the rates side:
- The 10‑year Treasury yield near 4.18% and 2‑year around 3.6% reflect markets that largely accept one more cut, but are less convinced about a long cutting cycle in 2026. [41]
For equities, this combination—low‑to‑moderate volatility + higher‑than‑recent yields + record‑level valuations—keeps the focus squarely on tomorrow’s Fed language.
Strategy & forecasts: how pros see the S&P 500 after today
Strategist commentary published around today’s close shows a cautiously optimistic Wall Street:
- Oppenheimer Asset Management set a Street‑high 2026 S&P 500 target of 8,100, implying roughly 18% upside from current levels, driven by robust earnings (EPS around $305) and ongoing strength in AI‑related growth. [42]
- A recent Reuters poll of strategists sees the index gaining about 12% by the end of next year, with most houses expecting moderate earnings growth and at least one more Fed cut in 2026. [43]
At the same time, several analysts warn that:
- Valuations are stretched versus history.
- The market is heavily reliant on a narrow band of mega‑cap tech names, making indexes sensitive to any wobble in AI or cloud spending. [44]
Today’s mostly sideways close fits with that backdrop: investors aren’t ready to sell aggressively, but they’re also hesitant to chase new highs without clarity from the Fed.
What to watch on Wednesday
Looking ahead to December 10, 2025, analysts and traders will be laser‑focused on:
- Fed decision and dot plot
- Whether the Fed cuts by 25 bps as expected.
- How many cuts officials pencil in for 2026.
- Chair Jerome Powell’s tone on inflation vs. labor market risks. [45]
- Market reaction across assets
- Stocks: Will the S&P 500 finally break decisively above its October record, or fade if the Fed sounds less dovish than hoped? [46]
- Bonds: Does the 10‑year yield stay anchored near 4.2%, or spike if traders pare back 2026 cut expectations? [47]
- VIX: Does volatility remain contained, or jump if the Fed surprises the market? [48]
- Ongoing corporate news flow
For now, Wall Street ends December 9th in a holding pattern—still perched near record highs, but with attention firmly fixed on the Fed’s next move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. ng.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. ng.investing.com, 4. markets.ft.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. apnews.com, 14. ng.investing.com, 15. markets.ft.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. fortune.com, 21. fortune.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. apnews.com, 25. apnews.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. apnews.com, 32. apnews.com, 33. apnews.com, 34. apnews.com, 35. www.investopedia.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.investing.com, 41. apnews.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.advisorperspectives.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. apnews.com, 47. www.investing.com, 48. www.investing.com, 49. apnews.com, 50. www.reuters.com
