Wednesday, December 10, 2025 – 9:30 a.m. ET update
Wall Street Quiet After the Opening Bell
Shortly after the opening bell on Wednesday, December 10, U.S. stock indexes were almost unchanged as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s final interest‑rate decision of 2025.
According to Reuters, around 9:33 a.m. ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up roughly 14 points (about +0.03%) near 47,574, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% at 6,833, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped roughly 0.2% to around 23,536. [1]
The muted open follows several days of choppy trading that have left the major indexes hovering just below record territory, as investors pull back risk ahead of the Fed’s decision and updated rate projections. [2]
What Happened Yesterday: A Pause Near Record Highs
On Tuesday, December 9, U.S. stocks closed mixed:
- Dow Jones: −0.38% to 47,560.29
- S&P 500: −0.09% to 6,840.51
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.13% to 23,576.49 [3]
The small‑cap Russell 2000 briefly notched an intraday record high before finishing up about 0.2%, reflecting renewed appetite for economically sensitive, domestically focused companies. [4]
Banks were the weak spot. JPMorgan Chase sank about 4.7%, its worst single‑day drop since April, after warning that expenses could rise to roughly $105 billion in 2026, a move that dragged the broader S&P 500 bank index down about 2%. [5]
Tech trading was choppy, with AI heavyweight Nvidia edging lower even as Washington signaled it would allow some high‑end AI chips to be shipped to China subject to fees and restrictions. [6]
The Fed: A Third Rate Cut, but a Tougher Tone?
The clear focal point for Wall Street today is the Federal Reserve. The Fed announces its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. [7]
What markets are pricing in
- The CME FedWatch tool shows markets assigning roughly a 90% probability that the Fed delivers another 25‑basis‑point cut, taking the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%. [8]
- Futures currently imply only two quarter‑point cuts in total through the end of 2026, leaving policy in the 3.00%–3.25% region — less aggressive easing than some traders hoped earlier in the year. [9]
A Reuters preview notes that policymakers are divided: some worry that cutting too slowly could weaken the labor market, while others fear that cutting too quickly could reignite inflation that’s still running above the Fed’s 2% target. [10]
Complicating matters, a recent U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic releases. Much of the Fed’s inflation and jobs data is now outdated, with a wave of postponed reports arriving only after today’s meeting — another reason analysts expect Powell to stress “data dependence” and avoid strong commitments about 2026. [11]
Why many expect a ‘hawkish cut’
Commentary from banks and macro analysts converges on one phrase: “hawkish cut.”
- Strategists at TD Securities, cited by Reuters, expect a 25‑bp cut paired with tougher guidance, signaling a high bar for further easing unless the labor market deteriorates meaningfully. [12]
- Research from KBC Bank (via ActionForex) frames it similarly: markets are “preparing for another hawkish rate cut,” with Fed officials likely to push back against hopes for rapid, ongoing easing. [13]
In practical terms, this means the Fed may deliver the cut markets already expect, but use the dot plot and Powell’s press conference to suggest that additional cuts will be slower and more conditional than futures currently imply.
Futures, Bonds and the Bigger Macro Picture
Before the opening bell, Dow and S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1% while Nasdaq futures ticked slightly higher, according to Investopedia’s live coverage. [14]
At the same time, bond yields have been grinding higher:
- The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield is trading near 4.21%, its highest level since early September, up from 4.19% at Tuesday’s close. [15]
Higher long‑term yields make future cash flows less valuable, which tends to weigh most on:
- High‑growth tech and AI stocks
- Interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities
Analysts at Simply Wall St highlight that the central question for 2026 is whether the Fed can continue easing withouttriggering another wave of inflation, a tension that will be crucial for small caps, REITs and other rate‑sensitive names. [16]
Global Markets: Silver Soars, Yen Stumbles
While U.S. equities are in “wait‑and‑see” mode, other markets are making big moves:
- A global markets wrap from Reuters reports that silver has surged above $60 an ounce, a fresh record, as traders seek hedges against inflation and policy uncertainty. [17]
- The Japanese yen has weakened sharply, hitting a new low against the euro, another sign of diverging monetary paths and carry‑trade pressure. [18]
Bloomberg’s markets update, republished via Swissinfo, describes a second straight day of subdued trading in global equities as investors wait for the Fed’s rate and dot‑plot guidance for 2026, with U.S. stock futures little changed and Treasury yields extending their recent climb. [19]
Key Stocks and Sectors to Watch Today
AI, software and cloud: Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom
AI and cloud spending remain at the center of the market narrative:
- Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings after today’s close, with investors watching its cloud and AI infrastructure momentum closely relative to hyperscale rivals. [20]
- Adobe (ADBE) also reports, offering an important read on enterprise software demand, generative AI monetization, and subscription resilience. [21]
- Broadcom (AVGO) is due later this week with results that will be scrutinized for AI networking orders and custom chip demand. [22]
A pre‑Fed market overview from Investing.com notes that U.S. indexes have pushed toward record highs in recent sessions partly on the back of mega‑cap tech enthusiasm, but this rally has stalled as traders step back ahead of the policy announcement. [23]
Banks and financials: JPMorgan and small caps
- JPMorgan’s expense surprise continues to ripple through financials after it flagged sharply higher 2026 costs, helping pull the S&P bank index down about 2% on Tuesday and weighing on the Dow. [24]
- Despite bank weakness, the Russell 2000 small‑cap index hitting a record has caught attention. History suggests smaller companies can outperform in a gentle easing cycle as lower borrowing costs feed into profits. [25]
Individual movers: GE Vernova, GameStop and more
In pre‑market and early trading:
- GE Vernova (GEV) jumped around 10% after boosting its outlook, doubling its dividend and increasing its buyback plans, aided by strong demand for power infrastructure. [26]
- Post‑earnings laggards include GameStop, Cracker Barrel, AeroVironment and Chewy, each down roughly 4–6% as investors reassess their growth and margin trajectories. [27]
These idiosyncratic moves highlight how sharply the market is rewarding clear forward guidance and punishing any company that introduces fresh uncertainty into its 2026 outlook.
Technical Picture: S&P 500 Still Near the Highs
From a technical standpoint, analysts at FOREX.com describe the S&P 500 as “muted ahead of the Fed,” trading in a range beneath its recent peak:
- Resistance: Around 6,900, with the record high near 6,920 the next level to beat if bulls regain control.
- Support: First near 6,800, then around 6,750, where the 50‑day moving average currently sits. [28]
In other words, the index is very close to its all‑time high, but today’s Fed messaging could determine whether the next move is a breakout or a pullback.
A separate analysis from The Motley Fool argues that December 10 could prove pivotal for the S&P 500, because the tone of today’s Fed decision may effectively set the risk‑taking appetite for 2026. [29]
What to Watch for the Rest of the Day
Here are the key catalysts still ahead:
- 2:00 p.m. ET – Fed decision & projections
- Size of the rate cut (almost certainly 25 bps)
- Dot plot for 2026: does the median projection show one, two or no further cuts? [30]
- 2:30 p.m. ET – Powell press conference
- How strongly he emphasizes data dependence
- Any signals about the labor market versus inflation trade‑off
- His tone on financial conditions after recent stock gains and higher yields
- After the close – Earnings
- Oracle and Adobe results and guidance on AI, cloud and software spending
- Market reaction in mega‑cap tech and AI‑linked semiconductors
- Cross‑asset moves
- Whether the 10‑year yield pulls back from ~4.2% or breaks decisively higher
- Follow‑through in silver, which has already broken above $60/oz
- How the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin (hovering near $92,000) and other risk assets digest the Fed’s message [31]
Outlook: Cautious Optimism, but a Narrower Path
Putting it all together:
- The baseline: Markets overwhelmingly expect a quarter‑point cut today — anything else would be a shock.
- The real story is about 2026: how many additional cuts, if any, the Fed hints at, and what conditions (especially in the labor market) would be required to deliver them. [32]
- With equities close to record levels, a more hawkish‑than‑expected dot plot or press conference could spark a pullback, particularly in long‑duration growth stocks and richly valued AI leaders.
- Conversely, if Powell acknowledges cooling jobs data and appears comfortable with a bit more easing, that could extend the rally, especially in small caps and cyclicals that benefit most from lower borrowing costs. [33]
For now, Wall Street’s message is simple: don’t make big bets until Powell speaks. With indexes hovering just shy of all‑time highs and cross‑asset signals flashing mixed, today’s Fed update has an unusually large say in how U.S. stocks finish 2025 — and how they enter 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.bloomberg.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.actionforex.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. simplywall.st, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.bloomberg.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. simplywall.st, 22. simplywall.st, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.forex.com, 29. www.fool.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.investopedia.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. simplywall.st
