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USA Rare Earth Stock Watch: Q1 Revenue, $1.75 Billion Cash and the China Supply Crunch
14 May 2026
3 mins read

USA Rare Earth Stock Watch: Q1 Revenue, $1.75 Billion Cash and the China Supply Crunch

STILLWATER, Oklahoma, May 13, 2026, 18:02 CDT

  • USA Rare Earth posted $5.7 million in revenue for the first quarter, while adjusted loss landed at 12 cents per share.
  • After wrapping up a $1.5 billion PIPE—private investment in public equity—the company closed out March holding roughly $1.75 billion in cash.
  • Chinese controls are still squeezing heavy rare-earth supplies, and investors are now watching for those U.S. funding documents. The update lands against that backdrop.

USA Rare Earth Inc. posted first-quarter revenue of $5.7 million and says it’s on track to finalize documents this month to tap $1.6 billion in funding from the U.S. Commerce Department—a key step as investors weigh whether the company can deliver on its ambitions for a major government-supported rare-earth project.

Timing is key here. Reuters said Wednesday that Washington and Beijing are weighing an extension of a rare-earth truce, but Chinese customs data still put exports of yttrium, dysprosium and terbium down roughly 50% since the controls kicked in April 2025. Those heavy rare earths are critical for aerospace, defense, semiconductors, and high-powered magnets.

USA Rare Earth wants to pull off what’s known as a mine-to-magnet supply chain—everything from digging up the raw materials and processing them, to making metals, alloys, and finally neodymium-iron-boron magnets. Those are the high-powered magnets found in autos, defense gear, servers, and more. According to the company, its current portfolio stretches across the United States, the UK, France, and Brazil, though that’s pending completion of certain deals.

CEO Barbara Humpton described the quarter as one of “fundamental transformation,” highlighting the $1.5 billion stock financing, steps toward consolidating the Round Top project in Texas, and the launch of Phase 1a at the Stillwater magnet facility in Oklahoma. USA Rare Earth

USA Rare Earth swung to a $67.0 million net loss attributable to the company, a sharp reversal from net income of $51.8 million the previous year. Operating loss landed at $36.7 million for the period. Adjusted net loss came in at $24.1 million, or 12 cents per diluted share.

Cash stood out. At the end of March, the company held $1.75 billion, a jump from $359.9 million at the close of last year, following a $1.5 billion PIPE injection. Operating cash burn totaled $18.6 million. For the quarter, $38.6 million went toward capital expenditures and equipment deposits.

USA Rare Earth has picked up another boost, this time from the state. Texas is putting $14.18 million into the company via the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund, money earmarked for the Round Top Mountain heavy rare-earth project out in Hudspeth County. According to the company, the project could add roughly 260 jobs and drive over $1.4 billion in capital into West Texas.

The real mover here is Serra Verde. Back in April, USA Rare Earth struck a deal to buy the Brazilian rare-earths player for $2.8 billion in cash and stock. The company claims this would make it the only sizable supplier outside Asia producing all four magnetic rare earths. Closing is targeted for the third quarter, pending conditions and regulatory signoff.

Wedbush’s Sam Brandeis bumped his price target on USA Rare Earth up to $35 from $29, sticking with an Outperform call. Brandeis cited growing urgency on heavy rare-earth supply policy and pointed to what he called momentum through the firm’s “mine-to-magnet” value chain. TipRanks

USA Rare Earth ended the session at $25.42, slipping 0.5%. There wasn’t much action after hours, market data showed. Elsewhere, MP Materials dropped 2.8% and Energy Fuels finished down 3.6%, signaling rare-earth stocks didn’t catch much of a bid post-close.

Prediction-market traders showed little faith in a straightforward diplomatic breakthrough. On Polymarket, a lightly traded contract around a potential Trump-Xi summit saw just a 32% chance for “rare earth export relief,” with only about $2,300 wagered on that possibility. By contrast, the platform assigned far better odds to deals involving Boeing planes and U.S. soybeans. Polymarket

Execution is the challenge here, not only demand. In a May 13 SEC filing, Serra Verde flagged that its merger might miss the projected timeline—or fall through entirely. The company also noted U.S. government financing hinges on final agreements and approvals. Delays, more expensive capital, customer qualification snags, or soft magnet prices could take a toll on the business.

Rare-earth experts warn the pressure on supplies isn’t going away anytime soon. “Headline export volumes can be misleading,” said Ilya Epikhin, senior principal at Arthur D. Little, speaking to Reuters. David Merriman, research director at Project Blue, put it plainly: fully replacing China in the market is still years off. Reuters

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