SAO PAULO, March 13, 2026, 17:39 BRT
Vale’s U.S.-traded stock dropped roughly 2.5% to $14.68 as of 5:15 p.m. in Sao Paulo on Friday, dulling the impact of the Brazilian miner’s latest operational update. Shares dipped after the company revealed it more than doubled its 2025 iron ore recovery from waste and tailings just a day earlier.
It’s a live question for investors: can Vale’s pitch—cleaner operations, more output—keep pace with rising doubts on iron ore prices and what the stock’s really worth? RBC took the axe to its rating Thursday, arguing Vale’s rally has outstripped BHP and Rio Tinto and is now “fairly priced.” Investing.com
Vale reported its so-called circular mining operations hit 26.3 million metric tons last year, topping the company’s original 20 million-ton outlook and more than doubling the 12.7 million tons logged in 2024. The approach boils down to extracting valuable ore from what used to be waste, such as tailings left behind after the first round of processing. By 2030, Vale aims for 10% of its total output to come from these recycled materials. Since 2023, that initiative has cut disposal by about 60 railcars’ worth of ore and generated over 3 million tons of sand from waste. The strategy has taken on new urgency in Brazil, where deadly dam incidents have forced miners to overhaul tailings management.
Vale is now priced as if iron ore trades around $85 a ton, RBC’s Marina Calero pointed out, a notch above Rio Tinto’s implied $83 and a bit below BHP at $91. Calero bumped her price target up to $15.50, but noted Vale shares have outpaced the sector on the rerating front. RBC’s still looking for a 2026 dividend yield near 8%—almost twice what peers offer—but Calero said that’s not enough juice to keep the bullish call.
The warning from BofA’s Caio Ribeiro actually dates back to late February. At the time, Ribeiro flagged what he called a “mismatch”: Vale shares had climbed 35% year-to-date, yet iron ore prices had slipped 7%. His view—muted steel demand wasn’t offering much in the way of near-term gains for the stock. TipRanks
Sector indicators pointed in different directions. Iron ore touched a two-month peak Thursday after China expanded curbs on certain BHP shipments in the midst of 2026 contract negotiations. On Friday, authorities allowed steelmakers a short window to pick up Jimblebar fines stockpiled at ports. The moves kept supply risk and Chinese appetite in focus, not just Vale’s gains from waste recovery.
Vale steps into the debate with stronger operating results than last year. For 2025, iron ore production hit 336.1 million tons—the company’s best output since 2018—topping Rio Tinto’s Pilbara volumes. Guidance for 2026 remains unchanged, still targeting 335 million to 345 million tons.
Back in February, Chief Executive Gustavo Pimenta said Vale was “focused on operational excellence” and sustainable growth heading into 2026. That statement came as the miner posted fourth-quarter pro forma EBITDA of $4.8 billion—topping analyst estimates—even though a nickel impairment in Canada dragged Vale to a $3.8 billion net loss. Vale
Still, the situation could easily swing the other direction. RBC flagged higher risk for Vale compared to some peers if geopolitical tensions persist, pointing to its cost structure and wider exposure to emerging markets. On top of that, regulatory scrutiny hasn’t faded since January’s overflows, which led to temporary shutdowns at two Vale units. Analysts estimate those units made up around 2% of the company’s 2026 iron ore forecast.
Vale is putting up better volumes and getting the job done more consistently. But on Friday, investors seemed far more focused on where iron ore prices are headed.
