New York, January 7, 2026, 05:50 EST — Premarket
- Chevron slid in premarket trade after Trump said the U.S. struck a deal to bring Venezuelan crude to U.S. ports.
- Gulf Coast refiners and Canadian heavy-oil producers also moved as traders weighed shifting crude flows.
- Investors are watching Thursday’s White House talks with oil executives for clues on licenses and timing.
Chevron fell 4.4% in premarket trading after President Donald Trump said the United States had reached a deal to import up to $2 billion of Venezuelan crude — roughly 30 million to 50 million barrels — to be sold at market prices. Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and PBF Energy were down between 1.2% and 7.7%, while Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus slipped about 2% and Baker Hughes rose 0.6%. Chevron controls Venezuelan oil flows to the United States under a U.S. authorization and has been exporting 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), while traders said the prospect of added supply pushed some U.S. Gulf heavy-crude differentials — the price gap to benchmark grades — about 50 cents lower on Tuesday. Reuters
Why it matters now: Venezuelan crude is heavy and “sour” (high-sulfur), a grade that suits complex U.S. Gulf Coast plants and can lower fuel production costs if sanctions ease. “The Gulf Coast can absorb a substantial portion of that 1 million bpd,” said Rommel Oates, founder of refining software firm Refinery Calculator. Barclays analyst Theresa Chen said Valero could process an extra 300,000 to 400,000 bpd, and oil executives are expected at the White House on Thursday to discuss Venezuela, sources said. Reuters
Supply is still gated by enforcement on the water. Shipping data and PDVSA documents showed crude deliveries to Asia have stalled, leaving tanks close to full and forcing PDVSA to deepen production cuts, while Chevron-chartered vessels were among the few loading for export. At least a dozen sanctioned vessels that loaded in December sailed in early January with transponders switched off — a practice traders call “dark mode” — and U.S. authorities have not said whether those departures were authorized. Reuters
The moves come after a sharp rally earlier in the week on hopes that U.S.-Venezuela policy shifts could eventually expand access beyond the narrow channels now allowed. Chevron ended 5% higher on Monday and refiners rose between 3% and 9%, while Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips added more than 2% and oilfield services firms Baker Hughes, Halliburton and SLB gained 4% to 9%. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri. Reuters
Oil prices extended declines on Wednesday, adding pressure to the producer side of the trade. Brent fell 0.6% to $60.35 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.9% to $56.61 in early European trading. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the Venezuela headline weighed early, though traders later questioned how big the incremental volumes would be, while Morgan Stanley estimated the market could run a surplus of as much as 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026. Reuters
But the stock trade hinges on politics as much as barrels. A shift in sanctions terms or tougher enforcement could strand cargoes again and keep Venezuelan production constrained, while a faster-than-expected flow of discounted heavy crude would squeeze producers’ pricing power and shift refining margins.
Investors will watch for signs on U.S. licensing decisions and any changes in how quickly Venezuelan cargoes can move from storage to U.S. buyers. The next catalyst is Thursday’s White House meeting with oil executives, where traders expect the first concrete read on timelines and scope for Chevron and Gulf Coast refiners.
