NEW YORK, March 10, 2026, 17:20 EDT
After spiking to levels last seen in April 2025 just a day before, Wall Street’s fear gauge retreated Tuesday. Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000, oil prices took a steep dive, and U.S. equities finished with little direction. The S&P 500 slipped 0.21%, the Dow ticked down 0.07%, while the Nasdaq managed a tiny gain of 0.01%—all still rattled by volatility surrounding the Iran war.
Why does it matter? The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, reflects expected 30-day S&P 500 swings based on options activity, and it’s increasingly serving as a kind of dashboard for traders watching to see if the oil shock bleeds over into broader inflation concerns. On Monday, the gauge spiked to 35.3—levels last seen during the April 2025 tariff turmoil—before sliding back to 24.93 on Tuesday, according to Cboe data. “Markets were still tightly correlated to developments in the crude complex,” Pepperstone’s Michael Brown noted. Reuters
Crude prices were behind most of the action. Brent and U.S. crude surged past $119 a barrel on Monday, but by the close Tuesday, they had tumbled to $87.80 and $83.45, both sliding over 11% in a single session. “Those parabolic moves often reverse violently once traders get ‘news on the other side,’” said Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest. Reuters
Crypto desks took their own view of the turmoil. Late Tuesday, Bitcoin hovered around $70,129. According to CoinDesk, VIX surges have a track record of coinciding with local lows for the token, stirring up fresh speculation that Monday’s bout of market panic might have set a short-term bottom.
CoinDesk referenced BVIV—the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index—to support that claim. BVIV tracks projected 30-day volatility in bitcoin options. According to the outlet, the index shot past 96 in early February as bitcoin dipped to $60,000 for a short spell. Lately, it’s slipped back to a little over 60, pointing to the possibility that crypto’s panic phase could be in the rearview.
The shock wave wasn’t just for professionals—retail traders latched on fast. Rob Isbitts, in a piece for Barchart that also ran on Yahoo Finance, declared the calm “officially shattered” once the VIX topped 30. He flagged UVXY for long-volatility exposure and SVXY for the inverse play, offering both as potential trades for whatever comes next. Barchart.com
Wall Street sentiment stayed unsettled. “There’s a lot of confusion among investors,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder, speaking after Tuesday’s close. Over at CFRA, Sam Stovall pointed to Monday’s sharp reversal as evidence investors were “looking for any opportunity to jump back into the equity markets.” Reuters
Sectors diverged. Tech stood out, the lone S&P 500 group ending Tuesday in the green—Nvidia, SanDisk, and Western Digital all gained. Energy names dropped alongside crude prices.
The risk is still out there. People briefed on the situation say the U.S. Navy told shippers it can’t provide escorts through the Strait of Hormuz at this point; attacks remain a real threat. Tehran, for its part, says the blockade isn’t lifting. Simon Flowers at Wood Mackenzie doesn’t see oil supplies bouncing back fast, even if the fighting wraps up.
The next hurdle isn’t far off. Later this week, investors will parse fresh U.S. inflation and growth figures—CPI, GDP revisions, plus the PCE price index—all landing as oil shocks meet a softer labor market. Robert Pavlik at Dakota Wealth tagged it as “potential stagflation,” that uncomfortable stew of sluggish growth and stubborn inflation. Reuters
