Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (LON: VOD, NASDAQ: VOD) has quietly morphed from a “problem child” of European telecoms into a high‑yield, turnaround story that is suddenly making bold moves again – especially in Africa.
On 4 December 2025, investors are digesting three big threads at once:
- A controlling Safaricom stake in Kenya via Vodacom, tightening Vodafone’s grip on one of Africa’s most profitable telecom and fintech franchises. [1]
- A €500m buyback and newly progressive dividend, on top of multi‑billion capital returns over the past 18 months. TS2 Tech+2GuruFocus+2
- A share price now near 52‑week highs, with a mixed but slowly improving analyst narrative and plenty of debate about whether the rally has gone too far. [2]
Let’s walk through what’s happening with Vodafone stock right now, why the Safaricom deal matters, and how the latest forecasts frame the risk–reward heading into 2026.
Vodafone share price on 4 December 2025
London (LON: VOD)
- Latest close (4 Dec): ~94.6p (sell 94.58p / buy 94.62p). [3]
- 52‑week range: 62.40p–96.32p, leaving the stock just shy of its recent high. [4]
- Market cap: ~£22.4–22.6bn. [5]
- Stated dividend yield: roughly 4.0–4.3%, depending on data provider and timing. [6]
New York (NASDAQ: VOD)
- Recent price (intraday, 4 Dec): $12.59, up about 1.7% on the day.
- 52‑week range: around $8.00–$12.73, with the ADR trading at the upper end after a rally from the $8 area earlier in 2025. TS2 Tech+1
Over the past year, Vodafone shares have gained roughly 30%+ in both London and New York, pulling the stock from “deep value” territory to “arguably fair value with a yield kicker.” TS2 Tech+1
The big news today: Vodafone tightens its grip on Safaricom and M‑Pesa
The headline for 4 December 2025 is Africa.
Vodafone’s African subsidiary Vodacom Group Ltd has agreed to acquire an effective 20% stake in Safaricom Plc, Kenya’s dominant operator and the powerhouse behind mobile‑money platform M‑Pesa. [7]
Deal structure and price
- Total consideration: €1.81bn.
- 15% of Safaricom bought from the Government of Kenya for €1.36bn.
- 5% acquired from Vodafone itself for €0.45bn. [8]
After completion, expected in Q1 2026 pending regulatory approvals in Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia, Safaricom’s ownership will be: [9]
- Vodacom (Vodafone-controlled): 55%
- Government of Kenya: 20%
- Public investors: 25%
Safaricom will be fully consolidated by both Vodacom and Vodafone, giving the group clearer control over a business that is:
- Kenya’s largest telecom operator, with a market cap around €7.7bn.
- Operator of M‑Pesa, handling over 100 million daily transactions and serving ~38 million customers in Kenya alone. [10]
- Growing fast: Kenya service revenue up 9.3% year‑on‑year in the six months to 30 September 2025, with 14% growth in M‑Pesa revenue. [11]
For Vodafone, which has been exiting low‑return European markets like Spain and Italy, this is the mirror image: doubling down on a high‑growth African fintech and connectivity platform that fits the “digital services plus emerging markets” narrative the group has been pushing for years. [12]
Financial momentum: H1 FY26 results show revenue and cash flow improving
The Safaricom move lands against a backdrop of better‑than‑feared half‑year numbers.
For the six months to 30 September 2025 (H1 FY26), Vodafone reported: TS2 Tech+2GuruFocus+2
- Revenue: €19.61bn, up 7.3% year‑on‑year.
- Service revenue: €16.33bn, up 8.1%.
- Adjusted EBITDAaL: €5.73bn, up about 5.9–6.8%, depending on measure.
- Operating profit: €2.16bn, down ~9% due to higher depreciation, amortisation and restructuring costs.
- Adjusted basic EPS: 6.92 eurocents, up from 4.84c in the prior year period.
Management now expects to deliver results at the upper end of its FY26 guidance ranges: TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
- Adjusted EBITDAaL: €11.3–€11.6bn
- Adjusted free cash flow: €2.4–€2.6bn
Key operational points:
- Germany, Vodafone’s largest market, finally returned to revenue growth in Q2 after a painful regulatory hit to TV and broadband revenues in 2024. TS2 Tech+2Reuters+2
- Service revenue continued to grow in the UK, Turkey and Africa, benefiting from better customer metrics, more disciplined pricing and network investments. [13]
The short version: top‑line growth has restarted, margins are creeping higher, and while statutory earnings are still noisy, cash generation looks strong enough to fund both dividends and buybacks.
Dividends and buybacks: Vodafone leans into the “income stock” label
First dividend increase in years
On 11 November 2025, Vodafone did something many long‑suffering shareholders had almost given up hoping for: it raised the dividend.
Under the new progressive dividend policy, the group plans to grow its full‑year dividend per share by about 2.5% annually, starting with FY26. TS2 Tech+1
- The FY26 interim dividend is set at 2.25 eurocents per share.
- Ex‑dividend date: 20 November 2025 (21 November for ADRs).
- Payment date: 5 February 2026. TS2 Tech
Depending on which dataset you use, Vodafone’s current yield sits somewhere around 4–6% – comfortably higher than the broader FTSE 100 average. TS2 Tech+2Hargreaves Lansdown+2
€500m buyback on top of multi‑billion returns
Dividends are only half the story. Vodafone has also:
- Returned over €5bn to shareholders via dividends and buybacks over the last 18 months. [14]
- Announced a further €1bn of buybacks over the next six months. [15]
The latest tranche is a €500m buyback launched on 11 November 2025 and scheduled to run into early February 2026. TS2 Tech+1
As of 26 November 2025, trading updates and LSE notices indicate that Vodafone held roughly 1.87bn shares in treasury out of about 23.8bn issued – around 7.8% of the share capital. TS2 Tech
Combine that with a ~4% cash yield and you get a double‑digit “total yield” when you add dividends and buybacks together, which explains why income‑focused investors have rediscovered the ticker. TS2 Tech+1
Strategic reset: exiting Spain and Italy, merging in the UK, reaching into space
Vodafone’s current investment case is tightly linked to a simplified footprint and a handful of higher‑conviction bets.
Europe: fewer markets, more scale
Over the last two years, Vodafone has:
- Sold Vodafone Spain and Vodafone Italy for a combined €13.3bn of cash proceeds, exiting structurally tough markets and freeing up capital for debt reduction, buybacks and growth projects. [16]
- Used these moves to “reshape our European footprint” around markets where it has scale positions and better economics, according to the FY25 results commentary. [17]
UK: a mega‑merger with Three
On 31 May 2025, Vodafone completed the merger of Vodafone UK and CK Hutchison’s Three UK, creating a new operator (often dubbed “VodafoneThree”) in which Vodafone holds 51% and CK Hutchison 49%. TS2 Tech+1
Key points from the deal:
- Planned £11bn investment over ten years into one of Europe’s most advanced 5G networks. TS2 Tech+1
- Targeted £700m per year of cost and capex synergies by year five. TS2 Tech+1
- Expected to be accretive to adjusted free cash flow from FY29, once heavy early‑stage investment is digested. TS2 Tech+1
This merger turns the UK into a central pillar of Vodafone’s long‑term growth story, but also puts the group squarely in the sights of UK regulators and politicians concerned about competition and pricing.
Space: satellite‑to‑phone bets with AST SpaceMobile
Because apparently just running mobile networks on Earth wasn’t enough, Vodafone is also going orbital.
In early November, Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile announced plans for a Europe‑led satellite constellation and selected Germany as the location for their European Sovereign Satellite Operations Centre. [18]
Highlights:
- The new operations centre, near Munich or Hannover, will control a constellation designed to deliver direct‑to‑device (D2D) satellite‑to‑smartphone connectivity for both commercial and government users. [19]
- The constellation will include a “command switch” to give European authorities oversight and security control over communications. [20]
- AST SpaceMobile aims to have up to 60 satellites deployed by 2026, serving mobile network operators across 21 EU countries that have already expressed interest. [21]
This joint venture (often referred to as SatCo) is a classic long‑dated option: it’s unlikely to move the earnings dial in the next year or two, but it strengthens Vodafone’s pitch as a connectivity platform spanning terrestrial and space‑based networks.
How analysts and models see Vodafone stock now
Here’s where things get a bit paradoxical: the share price has rallied and cash returns have improved, but many traditional analysts remain notably cautious.
Broker targets: cautiously higher, but not euphoric
- Bank of America has just raised its Vodafone price target to £0.98 (98p), citing “cleaner operations” after the exit from Italy and Spain and a more focused portfolio. [22]
- A Yahoo Finance analysis notes a modest uptick in one fair‑value model from £0.89 to £0.90 per share following the November results, reflecting slightly better growth and cash‑flow assumptions. [23]
Across various data aggregators, you find a wide spread of targets:
- TradingView (LSE: VOD) shows an average 12‑month target around 89.16p, with a high estimate of 140.56p and a low of 64.89p. [24]
- TipRanks data for Vodafone’s euro‑denominated listing show an average target of €1.02 versus a current price of about €1.05, implying ~2.4% downside, based on 11 analysts with a range from €0.81 to €1.59. [25]
Consensus ratings: still surprisingly bearish
Despite the rally and better results:
- MarketBeat’s composite still shows a “Strong Sell” consensus, with only one Buy, three Hold and seven Sell recommendations, and an ADR price target around $10.09, below the current $12+ level. TS2 Tech
- StockAnalysis likewise records an average rating of “Strong Sell” for the NASDAQ‑listed VOD ADR, with no fresh price targets in the last 12 months. [26]
Translation: on the “human analyst” side, Vodafone is viewed as better, but not yet good enough to justify a strong bullish stance, especially after a 30% share price recovery.
Technical and AI‑driven models: mildly bullish
Quant and technical tools are more upbeat:
- StockInvest.us classifies Vodafone’s ADR as a “Buy or Hold candidate”, noting a “wide and weak rising trend” with roughly 5–6% expected upside over the next three months and medium risk. TS2 Tech+1
In other words, the algos see a trending high‑yield stock rather than a meme rocket – but they don’t scream “bargain of the century” either.
Valuation snapshot
Pulling various data sources together: StockAnalysis+3TS2 Tech+3TS2 Tech+3
- Price/sales: around 0.7x, broadly in line with or slightly cheaper than many European telecom peers.
- Normalised P/E: some services (e.g. Morningstar, ChartMill) suggest 11–12x on adjusted earnings.
- IFRS P/E: still negative on strict trailing statutory earnings, thanks to restructuring charges, impairments and one‑offs.
- Debt: total borrowings a little over €50bn, with net debt metrics improved versus pre‑sale levels but still chunky for a business with tight margins.
Vodafone, in short, has migrated from “distressed value” to “reasonably‑priced income telco with baggage.”
Key risks still hanging over Vodafone stock
The 2025 rally and the Safaricom deal don’t make the old problems vanish. Several big risk clusters remain.
1. Germany and Europe: competition and regulation
Germany’s mobile and broadband market has been a headache for Vodafone, with a deterioration in performance reported in early 2025, particularly after regulatory changes to TV and broadband bundles. [27]
The H1 FY26 numbers show revenue growth returning in Germany, but: [28]
- Underlying service revenue trends (excluding one‑off wholesale effects) are still only modestly positive.
- Competitive and regulatory pressure in broadband remains intense.
A relapse in Germany could quickly dent the “turnaround” narrative.
2. India: Vodafone Idea remains a tail risk
Vodafone has allowed its stake in Indian operator Vodafone Idea to be diluted to around 16.1% after the Indian government converted spectrum dues into equity. TS2 Tech+1
While this has taken India out of the core consolidated balance sheet, it’s not a closed chapter:
- India’s Supreme Court has allowed reassessment of certain historic AGR (Adjusted Gross Revenue) dues up to FY17, creating room for a more flexible settlement – but also more complexity. TS2 Tech+1
- Reports in Indian telecom media flag the possibility of a relief package and new bank funding that could stabilise Vodafone Idea, but the government is still pursuing substantial additional AGR charges. TS2 Tech+1
For Vodafone shareholders, India has shifted from “existential threat” to “annoying but meaningful tail risk.”
3. Legal and regulatory risk in the UK
In the UK, Vodafone and peers are facing a multi‑billion‑pound class action over alleged “loyalty penalties” – charging long‑standing contract customers too much after their minimum terms expired. TS2 Tech
- A London tribunal has allowed claims from post‑October 2015 to proceed, while older claims were time‑barred.
- At the same time, politicians and regulators have been signalling a tougher stance on mid‑contract price rises and consumer protection in telecoms. TS2 Tech+1
Neither risk is easy to quantify today, but both could nibble away at margins and brand reputation.
4. Debt, capex and interest rates
Vodafone still carries tens of billions of euros in net debt and faces: TS2 Tech+1
- Ongoing capex for 5G, fibre and now satellite ventures.
- Potentially higher structural interest rates than in the ultra‑cheap money era of the 2010s.
Asset sales (Spain, Italy), joint ventures and disciplined guidance have all helped, but balance‑sheet repair is a process, not an event.
So what does Vodafone stock look like after the Safaricom deal?
Put all of this together and Vodafone on 4 December 2025 looks like:
- A high‑yield European telecom whose revenue line has stopped shrinking and is now growing modestly across core markets. TS2 Tech+1
- A group that has simplified its footprint, completed a transformational UK merger and is tilting harder into Africa and fintech via a controlling stake in Safaricom and M‑Pesa. [29]
- A stock trading near 52‑week highs after a ~30% rally, supported by a new progressive dividend and sizeable buybacks, but still viewed sceptically by many fundamental analysts. [30]
- A business with non‑trivial legacy risks: legal cases, regulatory headwinds, a large debt pile and a residual, noisy exposure to India. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
For income‑oriented investors, Vodafone increasingly resembles a “yield with a turnaround attached” story: you’re paid a decent dividend and benefit from buybacks while you wait to see if management can fully deliver on its strategy.
For growth‑focused investors, the bar is higher. They’ll want to see:
- Sustained revenue growth in Germany and the UK.
- Smooth execution of the Three UK merger synergies.
- Evidence that Africa (Safaricom, Vodacom) and space‑based ventures like SatCo can move the needle on group earnings, not just on press‑release glamour. [31]
Either way, Vodafone has moved firmly out of the “zombie telco” bucket. The 2026 story will hinge on whether today’s Africa push and capital‑return strategy can turn a respectable recovery into a genuinely durable rerating.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.hl.co.uk, 3. www.hl.co.uk, 4. www.hl.co.uk, 5. www.hl.co.uk, 6. www.hl.co.uk, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 11. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 12. kalkinemedia.com, 13. www.gurufocus.com, 14. www.gurufocus.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. reports.investors.vodafone.com, 17. reports.investors.vodafone.com, 18. www.vodafone.com, 19. www.vodafone.com, 20. www.globenewswire.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 30. www.hl.co.uk, 31. www.directorstalkinterviews.com
